Global Plans to replace the dollar

DutchmanAZ

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Interesting read with even more interesting long term ramifications.


http://www.projectcensored.org/top-stories/articles/1-global-plans-to-replace-the-dollar/

....Nations have reached their limit in subsidizing the United States’ military adventures. During meetings in June 2009 in Yekaterinburg, Russia, world leaders such as China’s President Hu Jintao, Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev, and other top officials of the six-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organisation took the first formal step to replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The United States was denied admission to the meetings. If the world leaders succeed, the dollar will dramatically plummet in value; the cost of imports, including oil, will skyrocket; and interest rates will climb.....
 

vince56

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Take the tin foil hat off, this is nonsense and you know it.
 
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DutchmanAZ

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I think it's plausible, and I'm curious why you don't?
 

jefftheshark

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IMO, this falls somewhere between the tin foil and reality. If anything, I would guess that we are seeing a world wide movement towards some kind of "standard" other than the USD, perhaps some kind of commodity basket, but these sort of things happen over years - if not decades.

You can't underestimate how much the rest of the world is ticked off over QE2.

But by the same token, when you don't have the world's most dominate military, there isn't a whole hell of a lot you can do about it either.

JTS
 

conraddobler

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IMO, this falls somewhere between the tin foil and reality. If anything, I would guess that we are seeing a world wide movement towards some kind of "standard" other than the USD, perhaps some kind of commodity basket, but these sort of things happen over years - if not decades.

You can't underestimate how much the rest of the world is ticked off over QE2.

But by the same token, when you don't have the world's most dominate military, there isn't a whole hell of a lot you can do about it either.

JTS

Nope.

Which is why hyperinflation comes when they finally get that ball across the goal line and not until.

:)
 

vince56

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I think it's plausible, and I'm curious why you don't?

Seems every year for the past 20 years the central banks of Brazil, France, China, Russia, Japan and several OPEC states have a secret meeting plotting to replace dollar.

Eventually you realize it's just idiots on the internet trying to stir stuff up because they're bored with their own lives.

We have a huge military, spend tons of money overseas and have a massive trade deficit specifically with all those countries. It's just not going to happen.
 

conraddobler

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Seems every year for the past 20 years the central banks of Brazil, France, China, Russia, Japan and several OPEC states have a secret meeting plotting to replace dollar.

Eventually you realize it's just idiots on the internet trying to stir stuff up because they're bored with their own lives.

We have a huge military, spend tons of money overseas and have a massive trade deficit specifically with all those countries. It's just not going to happen.

Soon, it's not going to happen soon.

It will happen, if something is unsustainable it will stop but like JTS said, these things take forever to come together and it comes when things reach ridiculous proportions and the change over is forced.

That's a while off but it will IMO come.
 

jefftheshark

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Nope.

Which is why hyperinflation comes when they finally get that ball across the goal line and not until.

:)

You can't say "nope" to that post, as I couldn't imagine a more fence-straddling comment ever being made on this board. :)

And wait, I thought I was the hyperinflationist.

Holy Crap, everything's moving so fast I can't remember which side of the argument I'm on from day to day anymore. :D

JTS
 

conraddobler

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You can't say "nope" to that post, as I couldn't imagine a more fence-straddling comment ever being made on this board. :)

And wait, I thought I was the hyperinflationist.

Holy Crap, everything's moving so fast I can't remember which side of the argument I'm on from day to day anymore. :D

JTS

Actually you really can't answer nope but I did so there :)

I was actually taking part of your post and agreeing with it to be clear.


You can't underestimate how much the rest of the world is ticked off over QE2.
In this case nope means yes, but again, that is not true in most other situations, I don't want anyone getting the wrong ideas about nope meaning yes.

;)
 

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Soon, it's not going to happen soon.

It will happen, if something is unsustainable it will stop but like JTS said, these things take forever to come together and it comes when things reach ridiculous proportions and the change over is forced.

That's a while off but it will IMO come.

There's been discussion:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSp9VoPeHquI

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7960620.stm

But I think you're right - it won't happen soon. Also, I think you'll see the Yuan and Riyal depeg from the dollar before this happens.

It makes sense from the other side's perspective - they can participate in the active decisions as to how a global currency is run. Right now, the have no say, we can choose to nuke the dollar into oblivion tomorrow if we so choose.
 

conraddobler

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There's been discussion:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSp9VoPeHquI

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7960620.stm

But I think you're right - it won't happen soon. Also, I think you'll see the Yuan and Riyal depeg from the dollar before this happens.

It makes sense from the other side's perspective - they can participate in the active decisions as to how a global currency is run. Right now, the have no say, we can choose to nuke the dollar into oblivion tomorrow if we so choose.

A dollar collapse long term might be good for this nation, because we're using it to maintain an unrealistic lifestyle on top of a massively bloated government.

Short term it's going to hurt like nothing has ever hurt before.

If we make it through that I would be bullish on America for a long long time but I said if.

I'm not saying we'll all die, but there's a very real chance the nation would fall to pieces literally if our currency collapsed and since that's a very real threat you could make an arguement to justify almost any counter measures to that if you were so inclined to do it.

I'm not sure what would come out of that scenario is all about apple pie.
 

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A dollar collapse long term might be good for this nation, because we're using it to maintain an unrealistic lifestyle on top of a massively bloated government.

Short term it's going to hurt like nothing has ever hurt before.

If we make it through that I would be bullish on America for a long long time but I said if.

I'm not saying we'll all die, but there's a very real chance the nation would fall to pieces literally if our currency collapsed and since that's a very real threat you could make an arguement to justify almost any counter measures to that if you were so inclined to do it.

I'm not sure what would come out of that scenario is all about apple pie.

You're talking about the US subdividing itself into smaller nations, say the Southwest US (NV, UT, AZ, NM), the Northwest US (WA, OR, ID, MT), so on and so forth? I know there's been a bit of talk about establishing the state of Jefferson (an idea that died with the onset of WWII), and possibly including Eastern Washington with it.
 

conraddobler

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You're talking about the US subdividing itself into smaller nations, say the Southwest US (NV, UT, AZ, NM), the Northwest US (WA, OR, ID, MT), so on and so forth? I know there's been a bit of talk about establishing the state of Jefferson (an idea that died with the onset of WWII), and possibly including Eastern Washington with it.

I don't think there's any doubt that if we had a full blown economic collapse that something like that would be on the table, I have no idea what the odds of it actually happening would be but it's been talked about.

Once the Federal government lost the power to actually shower extra money on regions and instead became a huge drain then the scenario's odds start increasing.

Complicating this would be a lot of haters in other nations not only rooting for this to happen but probably trying to help it along and then our own Federal government what's left of it will try to hold it all together by force I'd imagine.

It would be an epic mess in other words.

So I'd much rather not do the economic collapse, the implications of it are really staggering and impossible to predict once it starts off.

It's really a dilema, the system is corrupt beyond belief, the only thing that will stop that is a collapse, but once that starts there's no stopping it and there's no predicting how it will come out.

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.

Not.
 
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Divide Et Impera

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You're talking about the US subdividing itself into smaller nations, say the Southwest US (NV, UT, AZ, NM), the Northwest US (WA, OR, ID, MT), so on and so forth? I know there's been a bit of talk about establishing the state of Jefferson (an idea that died with the onset of WWII), and possibly including Eastern Washington with it.

I've suggested in the past that we should break into regions in terms of sustainable farming. What I mean is that (using your example) the Southwest US has farming blocs for the sustaining of that region and any surpluses can be traded with other regions. I don't know if that's clear nor do I know if that's reasonable, but it's a point for discussion. There's a little bit of fear in me that this scenario would be very Soviet-like. However, local and regional farming needs to be a viable option in such an economic scenario....
 

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I've suggested in the past that we should break into regions in terms of sustainable farming. What I mean is that (using your example) the Southwest US has farming blocs for the sustaining of that region and any surpluses can be traded with other regions. I don't know if that's clear nor do I know if that's reasonable, but it's a point for discussion. There's a little bit of fear in me that this scenario would be very Soviet-like. However, local and regional farming needs to be a viable option in such an economic scenario....

Just thinking through the problem (which means, if you haven't figured it out by now, it's a SWAG), it all depends upon the type of financial collapse, fast or slow.

In disaster response, a disaster that unfolds quickly is the worse kind. Government can't and usually isn't set up to respond that quickly (think Katrina, Haiti, the tsunami, Pakistani flooding), is quickly overwhelmed, public loss of confidence in the government follows shortly thereafter, and the populace adopts the opinion that "We're on our own."

That's usually when the complex, interconnected set of systems fail, one right after the other. Trade, supply, security all break down faster than the government can prop it up.

Trade fails because 1) You can't really transport the goods too far because of lack of means to do so (lack of supply), 2) It becomes too dangerous to do so (lack of security), 3) It isn't in your personal best interest to do so (you lose control once it leaves your area of influence).

Supply fails because the same way because of trade.

Security fails because 1) There's no trade, so critical stuff can't get to you (food, water, energy); 2) Loss of confidence leads to people believing they're on their own, so law and order goes out the window; 3) LEO's and the Military are quickly overwhelmed because the populace (and it doesn't take a lot - maybe about 1% of the population in any given area) feels that they have to fend for themselves, and will do so at any cost (what would you do if your wife and kids were starving?).

So, since the disaster happens quickly, government is overwhelmed, and cannot react in time to all the consequences, thus leading to loss of confidence by the populace, which leads to further failure, which leads to further loss of confidence, so on and so forth until all confidence is completely gone and any hope of a stable society is not realistic for the foreseeable future.

In contrast, a slower unfolding disaster gives the government a chance to get out ahead of the problem, and more importantly, gives the populace the impression that they are in control and addressing the problem. In many ways, whether or not the government is successful really doesn't matter at this point, what is more important is that they appear, and give the impression, that they are not overwhelmed and are actively working on the disaster. Namely, that they are competent, and that people shouldn't lose faith in the government.

So that's the scenarios and the psychology behind disasters.
 

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I've suggested in the past that we should break into regions in terms of sustainable farming. What I mean is that (using your example) the Southwest US has farming blocs for the sustaining of that region and any surpluses can be traded with other regions. I don't know if that's clear nor do I know if that's reasonable, but it's a point for discussion. There's a little bit of fear in me that this scenario would be very Soviet-like. However, local and regional farming needs to be a viable option in such an economic scenario....

To specifically address sustainable farming, right now, modern Ag requires a huge amount of energy that society can provide to them. This comes in the form of diesel for machinery, water for irrigation (thinking specifically about Imperial Valley), and transportation to ship all of the products to their markets.

If the collapse is a fast acting one, breaking into regions won't really matter much, because we won't have the ability to supply that energy to modern farms, and we wouldn't have the ability to ship the finished products to their markets. Crop yields would be significantly reduced due to the lack of availability of modern machinery, and modern fertilizer and pesticides (which are petroleum based). Some of these estimates put the loss of yield at around a factor of 4 - meaning that if you were producing 4 lbs, it would be reduced to 1 lb.

So, the loss of food would be catastrophic, and coupled with the loss of security at the same time, things would get very scary very quickly.

A little side note about security - during Katrina, there was a relief convoy put together for the Superdome. They had to carry everything with them (self sufficient) to get themselves in and out - including fuel and spare parts. They also carried with them a sizable security contingent of LSP's and National Guard. As they went through small towns, several times the Town Sheriff and police would stop the convoy through vehicle barricades and then announce that they were confiscating the entire convoy for "humanitarian relief". The presence of 40 NG and 20 LSP's, all heavily armed, persuaded the police and sheriffs that it wouldn't be a good idea. This is an example as to why trade and supply would be so difficult during a fast disaster.

A slower unfolding disaster would give the government more time to get in front of such a situation, and most probably prevent it from happening. Therefore, the priority of the government, if they can't prevent a financial collapse from happening, is to slow it down to the point that they can deal with it.
 

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OK, CD, so what he is saying is that everyone is worried about hyperinflation, when we should be worried about hyper deflation, correct?

All the Trillions and Trillions of Dollars you all think have magically appeared have not…they returned into thin air faster than they appeared out of it.

...

Well it will be time for round two at some point and the bailout will have to grow exponentially or it will fail.

...

The Population has a choice…begin requesting commercial banks to increase the money supply by 7.7 Billion dollars a day and increase that exponentially forever…Or don’t and collapse to oblivion.

Stage one is inflation of debt and the destruction of savings.

stage two is the deflation of debt and the destruction of equity.

stage three is the bankruptcy of the banks, collapse of the economy/division of labor, and the consolidation of power.

Stage 4 of course is even lower...total breakdown of civilization when the consolidation phase fails.

Top lives off the yield from the bottom and with the bottom cutting spending or their requests for commercial banks to increase the supply of money...the only way to extract the required yields from the bottom is by forcing the bottom to supply the yields.

Because if you retards figured out that hyperdeflation is coming...you would stop trying to obtain more and more and more...and instead try and protect what you have.

The top knows it's game over...They have known all along that it's impossible to sustain exponential growth...they have known all along that demanding a fixed yields year after year is exponential growth...

All they are doing is slowing down the process as much as possible so you all can adapt without flipping out.

Of course at the bottom it will be very ugly...but that is years away and at the point there will be a massive infrastructure in place to deal with fate resistors who will be the minority and exhausted.

And then he goes onto say that basically we can't continue to increase the monetary supply, because we've maxed out the yield, so the entire system will collapse. Slowly, but inevitably, it will fail - within the next 5 years or so.
 

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