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Attempting to take a peek into the NBA's future is always a fun, if usually pointless, exercise, as so much can change from season to season, let alone further down the road. Be it injuries, players not developing as they were expected to, off-court issues or whatever else, predicting who the league's best players will be five years from now is nearly impossible.
And yet, we're going to attempt to do just that today anyway.
We didn't even mention how much more difficult the exercise gets when you try to include players who are still in college, dominating at the pre-NBA level. We're doing that, too, though, so if nothing else, these results will be fascinating to look back on when the 2031. Will the much-ballyhooed 2026 draft class live up to expectations, or will it just be a good, not great, group of players?
Below, check out how we predict the top players in the NBA for 2030-31 will rank.
Although this one may seem like a no-brainer, as 2023 No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama has lived up to his enormous expectations and then some so far early on in his NBA career, we're still taking a risk here, as Wembanyama already had to miss half of one season due to a scary issue with a blood clot. And although he's been pretty healthy overall besides that, his body type is extremely unique, pretty much unlike any we've ever seen, when also considering his play style, so we just can't be positive how his body's going to hold up five years from now.
Then again, that's a risk with any NBA player, as the league's seasons are long grinds, and the way the game is played today - so stretched out, fast, and in a frenetic back-and-forth style - seems to be leading to more injuries than ever before.
As such, health provided, we think Wembanyama will be the best player in the world in 2030-31.
He's not that far off the mark as is, as the big Frenchman is averaging 23.9 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists and a league-leading 3.0 blocks per game in this, his third season, while shooting 50.5 percent from the floor and 35.0 percent from three. He's also extremely impactful, as Wembanyama is making the San Antonio Spurs a ridiculous 16.0 points per 100 possessions better when he's been on the floor this season.
On that topic, Wembanyama has turned the Spurs around in almost historic fashion, taking the team from being 22-60 the season prior to his arrival, to now being 51-18 and one of the favorites to hoist the championship at year's end. The team did do well in adding various excellent pieces to the team through the draft, as well as in trading for star guard De'Aaron Fox, but the cornerstone of the turnaround has without a doubt been Wembanyama, an absolute force on the defensive end (he's led the league in nightly blocks every year since getting to the NBA) and a player with absurd fluidity for a 7-foot-4 behemoth with a reported 8-foot wingspan.
If Wembanyama can just continue to get stronger, allowing him to get to his spots more easily on offense, and improve his outside off-the-dribble shooting, we could be looking at an eventual GOAT candidate; he's that one-of-a-kind on both ends of the court.
Minnesota Timberwolves superstar Anthony Edwards has consistently gotten better every year of his career so far, including from last season (27.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.2 steals on 44.7/39.5/83.7 percent shooting splits with 6.3 nightly free throw attempts) to this campaign (29.6 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game on 49.2/40.2/80.2 percent shooting splits).
The advanced analytics also believe Edwards is still ascending, as the former No. 1 overall pick has upped his advanced marks from last season (4.3 BPM, 20.1 PER and 0.140 WS/48) to this one. Edwards is currently at a 4.8 BPM so far in 2025-26, with a 22.4 PER and 0.156 WS/48 mark.
As such, the fact that Edwards is still on an ascendant trajectory gives us faith we may still be years away from his peak, a scary proposition for Minnesota foes out in the Western Conference (or Eastern Conference if the NBA moves the Wolves to the other side after its projected two-team expansion). And we think we have enough evidence to say he'll surpass the surprising No. 3 finisher on this list, and the reigning league MVP, on the player hierarchy by 2030-31.
What many may forget is that although Edwards has been in the NBA for six seasons, he's still just 24, so his best basketball truly could be ahead of him. After all, he has all the tools to be a Top 3 player in the league, a status he hasn't reached quite yet. He's got otherworldly explosiveness around the basket, can hit tough jumpers against even elite defenders, scores off the dribble, and can nail threes at a near-elite rate despite taking some very difficult shot attempts at times. He's a superstar 2-guard in an era that had left the position behind, especially after James Harden moved to point guard full-time.
So, although this may be a bold prediction, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility for Edwards to continue improving and reach an even higher status as a player over the next half-decade.
Could Gilgeous-Alexander rank a spot or even two higher here? Without a doubt.
After all, Wembanyama could get injured (although, in fairness, so could anyone), or maybe his offense never reaches that next level due to his lack of strength. Or maybe Edwards does peak this season at an excellent, just not MVP, level. If both prove to be the case, then it could very well be Gilgeous-Alexander who's the best player in the NBA in 2030-31, something that would not shock us at all.
Gilgeous-Alexander, on top of being an elite foul-drawer and a high-level shooter at the stripe, has absurd movement skills and ball-handling, possessing a level of quickness and craft that allow him to get wherever he wants on the floor. He's also a fantastic midrange shooter off the dribble, can hit difficult shots over anyone, is a good finisher around the basket, a fine outside shooter and an underrated playmaker.
So, how do we still have SGA ranked behind Edwards here? It comes down to degrees of regression. Gilgeous-Alexander is currently putting up a level of individual production that almost no guard in NBA history has matched on a sustained basis. To project him staying exactly there for five more years is a tall order… not because of any flaw in his game, but simply because that standard is historically extreme.
Even if SGA does come down a notch from his current peak, he likely remains a Top 3 player in the world. The reason we still place Edwards above him isn't that we expect SGA to fall off significantly. It's that Edwards appears to be on an upward arc and may be far away from his peak, while SGA may already be operating near his ceiling. Backing a player still climbing over a player who may be at or near his peak is, we think, a more defensible projection through 2031.
That's not a knock on Gilgeous-Alexander at all, who's got as high a floor as anyone on this list, a player totally focused on basketball with a well-rounded game that should age well. Plus, he'll merely be 32 in 2030-31, which is rather young for modern NBA superstars. The way the game is played today, along with modern training and medicine, has allowed players' games to age better than ever before.
The biggest risk in projecting Gilgeous-Alexander five years into the future may be that he simply won't be as hungry, having potentially won so much by 2031. You know you're on a great path when that's the biggest knock anyone can make against you.
What makes this exercise so difficult is the fact that the results can go in so many different directions. Would it shock us if six-time All-Star Luka Doncic wins an MVP award or two in the next five years and is the unquestioned best player in the league in 2030-31? Not at all, he's certainly got the talent level for it, an elite scorer who can get buckets from all three levels, while being a high-level playmaker and rebounder for his position.
The main concern with projecting how Doncic will look in five years is how seriously he will take his fitness level. Granted, this year, he's done a good job of that with the Los Angeles Lakers, so if he keeps this level of form up, it will help him extend his prime for the next half-decade and beyond. On the year, Doncic is putting up a league-leading 32.9 points per game to go with 7.9 rebounds, 8.5 assists and 1.5 steals on 47.4 percent shooting from the floor.
But Doncic remaining at this level in five years will be no easy feat, considering he began his pro career with Real Madrid all the way back in 2014-15, meaning 2030-31 would be Doncic's 16th season as a professional. Simply put, Doncic will have a ton of mileage on his body by the time he's 32 years old.
Even so, Doncic is on an all-time great trajectory and is a lock to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer as is, so whether he'll be the best player in the league or not in 2030-31 will come down to how his body continues to hold up. And a lot of that will depend on him continuing to keep taking his fitness seriously.
It took him a little bit, but former No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham has really started to live up to his pre-draft billing over the past couple of seasons, blossoming into a do-everything point guard in a 6-foot-6 package.
Cunningham has a smooth game, replete with off-the-dribble scoring, outside shooting ability, midrange bucket-getting, finishing around the basket, rebounding and playmaking. He has also been on an upward trajectory, even if the raw averages don't show it.
The former Oklahoma State standout is putting up 24.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, 9.9 assists and 1.5 steals on 45.0 percent shooting this season, similar marks to his 2024-25 campaign (26.1/6.1/9.1 on 46.9 percent shooting). But the advanced metrics rate him much higher for 2025-26, with Cunningham improving across the board.
And for this kind of exercise, projecting how players will look in five years, that (current age coupled with recent year-to-year improvement) is as important as anything.
The fact that Cunningham has turned the Detroit Pistons from yearly No. 1 pick contenders to a true force in the Eastern Conference also gives us confidence that the supersized point guard will be one of the league's best players in the early 2030s.
You know you're on a good path when you're breaking LeBron James records in your rookie season, and that's exactly what reigning No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg has already done, with some of his inaugural campaign still left to go. Thus far in his first year, Flagg has become the youngest player to score 35 points in a game, taking the record from James. Flagg also became the first 18-year-old to have at least 11 assists in a game. Then, in December, Flagg also became the youngest player to score 40 points, likewise taking the record from James.
And it's not just James that Flagg is overtaking in the record book, but Kobe Bryant, too, as Flagg recently became the teenager with the most 20-plus-point games in NBA history, passing Bryant for the honor.
So how could we not be extremely high on what Flagg's position in the NBA hierarchy will be in 2031, when he'll be just 24 years old?
Flagg's outside shot remains a work in progress, as the former Duke Blue Devil has shot just around 30 percent from three in his first season. But he already possesses an advanced all-around game for his age, putting up a 20/6/4 stat line as a rookie, doing some very effective work as a slasher and midrange scorer, as well as displaying advanced playmaking skills for a wing of his age. Flagg is also very promising on the defensive end, as he's got some strength to him, as well as quick feet laterally and a solid 7-foot wingspan, which helps him block shots and pick up steals.
Flagg and Doncic are the only teenagers in league history to put up a 20/6/4 stat line for a season, even more elite company for the 19-year-old, indicating a bright future.
All in all, as Flagg's outside shooting continues to progress, the sky will be the limit for the Maine native, as his competitiveness and physical tools, as well as his feel for the game, will carry him a long way.
Of late, there has been speculation as to when three-league MVP Nikola Jokic might retire. Jokic's former teammate, DeMarcus Cousins, said that he heard Jokic might retire sooner than we may think:
That's in contrast with the tone Jokic took on the subject in a discussion with ESPN's Malika Andrews:
Those talks would kind of explain why we have Jokic where we do on this list. Do we think his age should age extremely well? Considering how little athleticism he relies on, yes, we think he'll be an elite player for years to come, even when he's 36 in five years. But could we see him retiring by then, too? Sure. As they say, where there's smoke, there's fire.
So we're sort of hedging our bets here by having the Serbian superstar ranked merely seventh in our 2030-31 player rankings, despite Jokic showing no signs of slowing down. Jokic continues to lead the league in BPM and VORP this season, while putting up nearly 28 points per game, to go with 12.6 rebounds and 10.6 assists nightly, the latter two league-leading marks. And if the Nuggets were having a better campaign as a team, there would be a stronger push for Jokic to win his fourth MVP award this season.
Regardless, considering the level Jokic remains at, it wouldn't be surprising in the slightest to see him still in the MVP tier in five years and make this ranking look poor in hindsight. That's as long as he doesn't hit us with a shock retirement by then.
We're taking a bit of a shot here ranking former Duke legend Jayson Tatum where we have him. Not only will he be 33 by 2030-31, but he already has a major Achilles injury to recover from. Sure, he's done a fantastic job in his injury recovery so far, returning from the torn Achilles in just around 10 months, but it's the kind of injury recovery that will need to be handled very carefully, at least until 2026-27, if not longer.
Health permitting, Tatum should still be one of the league's 10 best players in 2030-31, as his scoring, pre-injury, was elite, a 6-foot-8 swingman with fantastic ball-handling, a quick first step, difficult shot-making ability and high-level finishing around the basket. The main issue with Tatum was that, despite his physical and athletic gifts, he too often relied on his ability to make tough shots rather than attack the basket, draw fouls and pressure defenses closer to the rim.
On top of his high-level scoring, Tatum was also a great rebounder and playmaker for his position, as well as an underrated defender thanks to size and lateral quickness.
Where Tatum ranks in five years will ultimately come down to whether he can return to his pre-injury form and remain healthy if he does. But considering how future Hall-of-Famer Kevin Durant has looked since tearing his Achilles tendon himself, we have faith Tatum will be able to enjoy a similar post-injury return to elite form.
Another bold prediction here, as we have Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson among the 10 best players in the NBA for 2030-31. Johnson is on a fast upward trajectory, going from putting up 2.4 points and 1.2 rebounds in 22 appearances as a rookie to earning All-Star honors for the first time in 2025-26, while surely in line to receive All-NBA votes this year, too.
Johnson will be squarely in his prime by the time our prediction becomes relevant. And if he continues to improve at the recent rate he has, we might be underrating him, if anything.
He is a smooth scoring wing with pull-up midrange bucket-getting, fantastic slashing chops and a solid outside stroke. He's also an elite rebounder for his position and a very effective playmaker, the kind of do-everything star forward that teams can build around. If Johnson is able to improve from being a career 33.3 percent three-point shooter up into the high 30s, an All-NBA spot will be his sooner rather than later.
The fifth-year forward has also done well to turn into a franchise cornerstone for the Atlanta Hawks, one that is slowly helping the team improve from its recent station as a perennial Play-In Tournament squad to perhaps something better.
Yet another young player who has seemingly gotten better every year, with no signs of slowing down on his ascent, Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey is one of the top 2-guards in the game today, putting up 29 points, four rebounds and six assists per contest, to go with two nightly steals and north of 37 percent shooting from three.
Maxey has elite quickness in the open floor and the halfcourt. He's capable of using his shiftiness, speed and ball-handling to get to the rack to finish among the trees, or stop on a dime, pull up and knock down midrange or three-point jumpers. Overall, he's a huge threat with the ball in his hands in a multitude of ways, but mostly centered around his blazing speed, quick crossover and shooting prowess.
There is some concern as far as projecting Maxey's play half a decade into the future, considering how much he depends on his elite athleticism to be effective. But if we use San Antonio Spurs lead guard De'Aaron Fox as an example, who likewise was a former Kentucky standout that took the NBA by storm early in his career using ridiculous speed, the fact that Fox is now 28 and still an All-Star leads us to believe Maxey will remain a top-level player by the 2030-31 season when he'll be in his late 20s, especially since he's more productive and impactful now than Fox ever was in his career.
Although 2025-26 has been a bit of a disappointment for Turkish big man Alperen Sengun, the Houston Rockets center still earned All-Star honors for the second year in a row while leading a strong Rockets squad. Still, it must be noted that in this, his age-23 season, Sengun has regressed according to multiple advanced metrics.
That's been reflective in his actual play, too, as Sengun has been inconsistent on a night-to-night basis, in part due to his three-point shot remaining so shaky, along with his free-throw shooting being poor. Not only does Sengun not draw enough fouls, but once he gets to the foul stripe, he's sub-69 percent in accuracy as a foul shooter this year, which really hurts his impact.
That's all to say, that does give us pause as to declaring Sengun a borderline Top 10 player for 2030-31.
Still, we're banking on his age and his current All-Star level getting him into the All-NBA tier over the next five years. If Sengun just improves with his shooting, we're talking about a top big man in the league, because he's so good in other areas, primarily as a face-up center with elite playmaking for a frontcourt player, crafty scoring out of the post and very solid rebounding and screen-setting ability.
Had we written this immediately following his fantastic 2024-25 playoff run, we'd feel a whole lot more comfortable with his ranking here, as fourth-year Oklahoma City forward Jalen Williams has been plagued by injuries thus far in his follow-up campaign.
Still, we have plenty of evidence that Williams should get back to form once his health improves, as the former Santa Clara standout has shown plenty of promise thus far, early on in his career, as a very effective pull-up midrange scorer with star shot-making ability from that part of the floor. Williams has a throwback style of scoring, as not only can he shoot threes, but he can also hit fadeaways, turnarounds or pull-up jumpers over good defending, or attack the basket and finish around the rim.
Williams is also a fantastic defender on the other end of the floor, earning one 2nd Team All-Defense already in his career, and possessing a two-way skill set that should continue to be effective over the years to come, health permitting.
As such, we're betting on Williams returning to form and improving on it over the next five years, as he is still just 24 and has another level he may not have tapped into yet. We think he'll tap into it once he gets healthy again.
The one wildcard nobody's talking about yet: does he eventually pull a Harden and bolt OKC to step out of Shai's shadow and lead his own team?
We're not knocking 2024 Finals MVP, Jaylen Brown, with his place in this ranking here, as the two-way swingman has upped his game to a regular-season MVP level in 2025-26, in the absence of star teammate, Jayson Tatum, reaching a level that not many were even sure he possessed.
Brown has remarkably set career-high averages across the board this season, putting up 28.4 points, 7.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game, as well as with his free-throw accuracy, where he's knocking down a career-best 79.2 percent of his attempts. He has also put the Celtics on his back without Tatum, as the team impressively sits at 45-23 this season, and No. 2 in the East, with most of the credit belonging to Brown for his work in keeping the team playing at an elite level in a campaign where most thought it could perhaps be in for a one-year reset, sans Tatum.
Not on Brown's watch, however, and he deserves so much praise for raising his game to an even higher level without Tatum around.
But what gave us pause with ranking him too high in this exercise is the fact that Brown will be 34 by the time 2030-31 rolls around, and his game is pretty athleticism-dependent, so we're not sure if the 29-year-old will be as effective a player in five years, at least not at his current borderline MVP level. Plus, even despite how productive Brown has been in 2025-26, the advanced analytics don't really reflect his raw output, as Brown ranks 48th in WS/48 this season and just 19th in BPM, which gave us pause in ranking him as a Top 10 player five years from now when he'll be in his mid-30s.
Brown's a solid shooter with some craft to his game, but he does depend a lot on his quickness and bounce to be as effective as he is, and we just can't project his level to remain the same when he'll be battling Father Time over the years to come.
Anyone who has watched Charlotte Hornets rookie Kon Knueppel this season knows that us having predicted to be a Top 15 player for 2030-31 is far from a hot take, but for any doubters, let us explain.
As a first-year player, Knueppel, who isn't even 21 yet, by the way, ranks as a Top 26 player in the NBA according to WS/48, BPM and VORP, an absolutely ridiculous feat for a player who didn't even go Top 3 in his draft class. Knueppel's just such a good shooter and crafty scorer, with driving and pull-up-scoring ability, a high-IQ player with a fantastic nose for scoring.
Knueppel isn't only one of the best outside shooters in the league already, but he also knows how to attack strong closeouts to score on pull-up midrange jumpers, or even finish around the rim, making him a true three-level scorer as a 20-year-old. If anything, we're more worried that we have Knueppel ranked too low here than too high, as he looks like he'll be playing at an All-NBA level by 2030-31.
We also can't ignore that merely in Year 1, the former Blue Devil has already helped the Hornets improve from going 19-63 last season, to being above .500 in March of the following season, a major turnaround that we're very confident wouldn't have happened without his addition through the draft.
We're buying heavily into the Knueppel stock.
A player whom we have more faith in regarding their ranking here is 76ers rookie VJ Edgecombe, one of the most impressive first-year players in the league this season.
In 2025-26, Edgecombe has put up 15.3 points per game so far, to go with 5.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.4 steals per game, as a 20-year-old. Edgecombe is one of just nine players in league history to put up such a stat line before turning 21, joining a list featuring the likes of Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Magic Johnson, proving that his two-way potential is vast. Hence, his place in this ranking.
Edgecombe has an elite first step, fantastic quickness, an effective crossover, great hops near the rim and the ability to hit tough shots from both three and the midrange. A player with Edgecombe's level of explosiveness is extremely unique (he's truly that athletic), and that, coupled with his potential as a tough-shot-maker, leads us to believe the former Baylor Bear has an All-NBA ceiling, a level we think he'll reach by the time this prediction becomes relevant in five years.
Of course, Edgecombe will have work to do to get there, namely with his three-point shooting prowess, but his 34.5 percent accuracy from there as a rookie is respectable enough. Plus, the fact that the first-year guard is hitting 82.5 percent of his free throws this season also makes us think his three-point shooting should improve over the coming seasons.
Overall, Edgecombe has moments where he moves like a young Dwyane Wade, replete with the athleticism, fearlessness attacking the rim, and the tough shot-making from the midrange, so we think between him and Maxey, Philadelphia could boast the best backcourt in the NBA when 2030-31 rolls around - and it might not be all that close.
Fast-rising sophomore guard Stephon Castle has improved leaps and bounds from his first season to his second, which leads us to believe the future is quite bright for the former UConn Husky.
Already in his second campaign, Castle ranks among the game’s Top 70 players according to BPM and WS/48, and looking at his raw numbers, it’s easy to see why, as the athletic floor general is putting up over 16 points and seven assists per outing to go with 1.2 steals.
Possessing a strong two-way game for a guard, Castle’s impact has been felt in a huge way in San Antonio on both ends of the floor. Castle’s got a strong frame, athletic feet laterally and plays with great effort on the less glamorous end of the floor, giving him the makings of a future All-Defensive Team-level point-of-attack ball-stopper.
He’s also a fast-improving offensive player, though work remains to be done for Castle on that end, particularly with his outside jumper. Even so, Castle’s got a fantastic first step, great athleticism near the rim and can hit pull-up jumpers already.
All of those impressive two-way attributes for the reigning Rookie of the Year, plus the fact that he’ll have Wembanyama as a teammate for years to come, leads us to be very high on future Castle stock.
Perhaps our boldest prediction in this piece is having potential No. 1 2026 NBA Draft pick, Darryn Peterson, in this ranking at all, as the 19-year-old is months away from his first dribble in an actual NBA game. He hasn't even played in the 2026 NCAA Tournament yet, at the time of this writing.
But from purely a talent standpoint, this may not be that reckless of a prediction, as Peterson had NBA evaluators salivating over his potential prior to his cramping issues in his freshman season at Kansas. The Ohio native is averaging nearly 20 points per game in his first season at Kansas, to go with 4.4 rebounds and 1.5 steals on 44.2 percent shooting from the floor and 38.4 percent from the three-point line.
According to recent reports, scouts still love Peterson's upside as a 2-guard with great size and athleticism, and star-level shot-making ability:
Of course, how he closes out his freshman season is going to matter a ton, as far as staying healthy and potentially leading Kansas on a deep tournament run. If he's able to do that, he should go first in the upcoming NBA Draft.
Regardless, we're going to take a swing here and say Peterson lives up to the hype, becomes the NBA's next great young 2-guard and cracks the Top 20 players in the NBA by 2030-31. He's got that much upside.
Either we're going to be right on point with Cleveland Cavaliers big man Evan Mobley's ranking prediction for five years from now on, or we're going to be way too low on him, as we think his career should go one of two ways: Either he'll remain at the same level he's on now, that of perennial All-Star/low-level All-NBAer, or he'll take the next step and reach his massive ceiling in the next half decade. We certainly don't think he'll regress as a player into his mid- to late-20s, but there's still a chance he does improve substantially, as Mobley is still just 24 years old.
Like Sengun, Mobley has stagnated or perhaps even regressed a bit from last season to this one, as the former USC standout has seen his BPM (4.6 to 2.9) and his WS/48 (0.200 to 0.144) both drop after his 2nd Team All-NBA, Top 10 in MVP voting finish in 2024-25. Mobley's play was deemed disappointing enough that he missed out on All-Star honors this season (in the weaker Eastern Conference, no less) and will assuredly also miss out on All-NBA this year, too, after such an impressive '25 campaign for him.
The main area in which Mobley has regressed is as an outside shooter, as Mobley has gone from a very respectable 37 percent over the previous two seasons to a paltry 30.5 percent from three this year, which has really hurt his nightly impact on offense.
Mobley still has all the promise in the world - a fleet-footed big man with great quickness, face-up scoring and driving ability, while being an elite defender on the other end thanks to his long arms and great instincts. But as long as his nightly aggressiveness doesn't improve, he won't be able to consistently reach that next level as a player, as there are too many times when Mobley simply doesn't attack hard enough on offense despite his vast potential in that area.
Another young player who regressed from last season to this one, former No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero, has loads of promise behind his great size and skill, but he just hasn't put it all together to this point in his career. For Banchero to still have an All-Star appearance under his belt despite not putting it all together yet just speaks to his massive potential.
Even Banchero himself acknowledged that he didn't deserve to be an All-Star this season, in an interview with Andscape:
What Banchero lacks is in his shot selection, as he too often goes with the most difficult midrange shot attempt possible, as opposed to using his massive size and ball-handling ability to attack the rim relentlessly, where he could use his explosiveness to finish around the basket. Banchero's 13.4 drives per game this season is fewer than Darius Garland (13.9) and Jaime Jaquez Jr. (13.8), and his field-goal percentage on drives (46.1 percent) is over 10 percentage points lower than Trae Young's (57.6 percent), so maybe there is something to Banchero saying his health is affecting his play this season. Otherwise, those numbers would be even more concerning.
Banchero also struggles mightily (31.9 percent for his career) as an outside shooter, hurting his overall effectiveness on the offensive end.
Still, we're counting on Banchero's freakish physique and bully-ball potential, and the fact he's still only 23, to help him hit the next level over the next five years. Because if he doesn't improve upon his 2025-26 output, he probably won't be among the 20 best players for 2030-31. It's not like he's close to being a Top 20 player now.
A player so dependent on athleticism and relentless effort, two-time league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo has had a tough 2025-26 season due to lingering injury issues related to his calf and knee, which gave us pause as to ranking him too highly in this future-oriented exercise.
Still, we're hedging our bet a bit here by still projecting him to be a Top 20 player in the league in five years, when he'll be 36. Even then, that might be a little lofty, especially if those injury troubles don't dissipate as he gets older. Will Antetokounmpo's body hold up as well as LeBron James' has? If it doesn't, it won't be for a lack of trying, as Antetokounmpo clearly works hard on and off the court to remain among the game's elite. But sometimes, the wear and tear gets to be too much, and Antetokounmpo goes full throttle on a nightly basis on both ends of the floor, which may cause him to decline physically faster than expected.
Regardless, Antetokounmpo had a down year in 2025-26 and still put up a monstrous 27.6/9.8/5.4 stat line on 62.4 percent shooting from the floor. If that's the Greek Freak on the decline, then we should still have years of elite play to enjoy out of him.
Plus, with a much-rumored potential change of scenery coming for Antetokounmpo, perhaps as early as this offseason, maybe the 31-year-old will be able to extend his peak longer if surrounded by better talent on another team.
This article originally appeared on Hoops Hype: Future Rankings: Who will be the NBA's best in five years?
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And yet, we're going to attempt to do just that today anyway.
We didn't even mention how much more difficult the exercise gets when you try to include players who are still in college, dominating at the pre-NBA level. We're doing that, too, though, so if nothing else, these results will be fascinating to look back on when the 2031. Will the much-ballyhooed 2026 draft class live up to expectations, or will it just be a good, not great, group of players?
Below, check out how we predict the top players in the NBA for 2030-31 will rank.
1. Victor Wembanyama (27 years old in 2031)
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Although this one may seem like a no-brainer, as 2023 No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama has lived up to his enormous expectations and then some so far early on in his NBA career, we're still taking a risk here, as Wembanyama already had to miss half of one season due to a scary issue with a blood clot. And although he's been pretty healthy overall besides that, his body type is extremely unique, pretty much unlike any we've ever seen, when also considering his play style, so we just can't be positive how his body's going to hold up five years from now.
Then again, that's a risk with any NBA player, as the league's seasons are long grinds, and the way the game is played today - so stretched out, fast, and in a frenetic back-and-forth style - seems to be leading to more injuries than ever before.
As such, health provided, we think Wembanyama will be the best player in the world in 2030-31.
He's not that far off the mark as is, as the big Frenchman is averaging 23.9 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists and a league-leading 3.0 blocks per game in this, his third season, while shooting 50.5 percent from the floor and 35.0 percent from three. He's also extremely impactful, as Wembanyama is making the San Antonio Spurs a ridiculous 16.0 points per 100 possessions better when he's been on the floor this season.
On that topic, Wembanyama has turned the Spurs around in almost historic fashion, taking the team from being 22-60 the season prior to his arrival, to now being 51-18 and one of the favorites to hoist the championship at year's end. The team did do well in adding various excellent pieces to the team through the draft, as well as in trading for star guard De'Aaron Fox, but the cornerstone of the turnaround has without a doubt been Wembanyama, an absolute force on the defensive end (he's led the league in nightly blocks every year since getting to the NBA) and a player with absurd fluidity for a 7-foot-4 behemoth with a reported 8-foot wingspan.
If Wembanyama can just continue to get stronger, allowing him to get to his spots more easily on offense, and improve his outside off-the-dribble shooting, we could be looking at an eventual GOAT candidate; he's that one-of-a-kind on both ends of the court.
2. Anthony Edwards (29)
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Minnesota Timberwolves superstar Anthony Edwards has consistently gotten better every year of his career so far, including from last season (27.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.2 steals on 44.7/39.5/83.7 percent shooting splits with 6.3 nightly free throw attempts) to this campaign (29.6 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game on 49.2/40.2/80.2 percent shooting splits).
The advanced analytics also believe Edwards is still ascending, as the former No. 1 overall pick has upped his advanced marks from last season (4.3 BPM, 20.1 PER and 0.140 WS/48) to this one. Edwards is currently at a 4.8 BPM so far in 2025-26, with a 22.4 PER and 0.156 WS/48 mark.
As such, the fact that Edwards is still on an ascendant trajectory gives us faith we may still be years away from his peak, a scary proposition for Minnesota foes out in the Western Conference (or Eastern Conference if the NBA moves the Wolves to the other side after its projected two-team expansion). And we think we have enough evidence to say he'll surpass the surprising No. 3 finisher on this list, and the reigning league MVP, on the player hierarchy by 2030-31.
What many may forget is that although Edwards has been in the NBA for six seasons, he's still just 24, so his best basketball truly could be ahead of him. After all, he has all the tools to be a Top 3 player in the league, a status he hasn't reached quite yet. He's got otherworldly explosiveness around the basket, can hit tough jumpers against even elite defenders, scores off the dribble, and can nail threes at a near-elite rate despite taking some very difficult shot attempts at times. He's a superstar 2-guard in an era that had left the position behind, especially after James Harden moved to point guard full-time.
So, although this may be a bold prediction, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility for Edwards to continue improving and reach an even higher status as a player over the next half-decade.
3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (32)
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Could Gilgeous-Alexander rank a spot or even two higher here? Without a doubt.
After all, Wembanyama could get injured (although, in fairness, so could anyone), or maybe his offense never reaches that next level due to his lack of strength. Or maybe Edwards does peak this season at an excellent, just not MVP, level. If both prove to be the case, then it could very well be Gilgeous-Alexander who's the best player in the NBA in 2030-31, something that would not shock us at all.
Gilgeous-Alexander, on top of being an elite foul-drawer and a high-level shooter at the stripe, has absurd movement skills and ball-handling, possessing a level of quickness and craft that allow him to get wherever he wants on the floor. He's also a fantastic midrange shooter off the dribble, can hit difficult shots over anyone, is a good finisher around the basket, a fine outside shooter and an underrated playmaker.
So, how do we still have SGA ranked behind Edwards here? It comes down to degrees of regression. Gilgeous-Alexander is currently putting up a level of individual production that almost no guard in NBA history has matched on a sustained basis. To project him staying exactly there for five more years is a tall order… not because of any flaw in his game, but simply because that standard is historically extreme.
Even if SGA does come down a notch from his current peak, he likely remains a Top 3 player in the world. The reason we still place Edwards above him isn't that we expect SGA to fall off significantly. It's that Edwards appears to be on an upward arc and may be far away from his peak, while SGA may already be operating near his ceiling. Backing a player still climbing over a player who may be at or near his peak is, we think, a more defensible projection through 2031.
That's not a knock on Gilgeous-Alexander at all, who's got as high a floor as anyone on this list, a player totally focused on basketball with a well-rounded game that should age well. Plus, he'll merely be 32 in 2030-31, which is rather young for modern NBA superstars. The way the game is played today, along with modern training and medicine, has allowed players' games to age better than ever before.
The biggest risk in projecting Gilgeous-Alexander five years into the future may be that he simply won't be as hungry, having potentially won so much by 2031. You know you're on a great path when that's the biggest knock anyone can make against you.
4. Luka Doncic (32)
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What makes this exercise so difficult is the fact that the results can go in so many different directions. Would it shock us if six-time All-Star Luka Doncic wins an MVP award or two in the next five years and is the unquestioned best player in the league in 2030-31? Not at all, he's certainly got the talent level for it, an elite scorer who can get buckets from all three levels, while being a high-level playmaker and rebounder for his position.
The main concern with projecting how Doncic will look in five years is how seriously he will take his fitness level. Granted, this year, he's done a good job of that with the Los Angeles Lakers, so if he keeps this level of form up, it will help him extend his prime for the next half-decade and beyond. On the year, Doncic is putting up a league-leading 32.9 points per game to go with 7.9 rebounds, 8.5 assists and 1.5 steals on 47.4 percent shooting from the floor.
But Doncic remaining at this level in five years will be no easy feat, considering he began his pro career with Real Madrid all the way back in 2014-15, meaning 2030-31 would be Doncic's 16th season as a professional. Simply put, Doncic will have a ton of mileage on his body by the time he's 32 years old.
Even so, Doncic is on an all-time great trajectory and is a lock to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer as is, so whether he'll be the best player in the league or not in 2030-31 will come down to how his body continues to hold up. And a lot of that will depend on him continuing to keep taking his fitness seriously.
5. Cade Cunningham (29)
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It took him a little bit, but former No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham has really started to live up to his pre-draft billing over the past couple of seasons, blossoming into a do-everything point guard in a 6-foot-6 package.
Cunningham has a smooth game, replete with off-the-dribble scoring, outside shooting ability, midrange bucket-getting, finishing around the basket, rebounding and playmaking. He has also been on an upward trajectory, even if the raw averages don't show it.
The former Oklahoma State standout is putting up 24.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, 9.9 assists and 1.5 steals on 45.0 percent shooting this season, similar marks to his 2024-25 campaign (26.1/6.1/9.1 on 46.9 percent shooting). But the advanced metrics rate him much higher for 2025-26, with Cunningham improving across the board.
And for this kind of exercise, projecting how players will look in five years, that (current age coupled with recent year-to-year improvement) is as important as anything.
The fact that Cunningham has turned the Detroit Pistons from yearly No. 1 pick contenders to a true force in the Eastern Conference also gives us confidence that the supersized point guard will be one of the league's best players in the early 2030s.
6. Cooper Flagg (24)
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You know you're on a good path when you're breaking LeBron James records in your rookie season, and that's exactly what reigning No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg has already done, with some of his inaugural campaign still left to go. Thus far in his first year, Flagg has become the youngest player to score 35 points in a game, taking the record from James. Flagg also became the first 18-year-old to have at least 11 assists in a game. Then, in December, Flagg also became the youngest player to score 40 points, likewise taking the record from James.
And it's not just James that Flagg is overtaking in the record book, but Kobe Bryant, too, as Flagg recently became the teenager with the most 20-plus-point games in NBA history, passing Bryant for the honor.
So how could we not be extremely high on what Flagg's position in the NBA hierarchy will be in 2031, when he'll be just 24 years old?
Flagg's outside shot remains a work in progress, as the former Duke Blue Devil has shot just around 30 percent from three in his first season. But he already possesses an advanced all-around game for his age, putting up a 20/6/4 stat line as a rookie, doing some very effective work as a slasher and midrange scorer, as well as displaying advanced playmaking skills for a wing of his age. Flagg is also very promising on the defensive end, as he's got some strength to him, as well as quick feet laterally and a solid 7-foot wingspan, which helps him block shots and pick up steals.
Flagg and Doncic are the only teenagers in league history to put up a 20/6/4 stat line for a season, even more elite company for the 19-year-old, indicating a bright future.
All in all, as Flagg's outside shooting continues to progress, the sky will be the limit for the Maine native, as his competitiveness and physical tools, as well as his feel for the game, will carry him a long way.
7. Nikola Jokic (36)
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Of late, there has been speculation as to when three-league MVP Nikola Jokic might retire. Jokic's former teammate, DeMarcus Cousins, said that he heard Jokic might retire sooner than we may think:
That's in contrast with the tone Jokic took on the subject in a discussion with ESPN's Malika Andrews:
Those talks would kind of explain why we have Jokic where we do on this list. Do we think his age should age extremely well? Considering how little athleticism he relies on, yes, we think he'll be an elite player for years to come, even when he's 36 in five years. But could we see him retiring by then, too? Sure. As they say, where there's smoke, there's fire.
So we're sort of hedging our bets here by having the Serbian superstar ranked merely seventh in our 2030-31 player rankings, despite Jokic showing no signs of slowing down. Jokic continues to lead the league in BPM and VORP this season, while putting up nearly 28 points per game, to go with 12.6 rebounds and 10.6 assists nightly, the latter two league-leading marks. And if the Nuggets were having a better campaign as a team, there would be a stronger push for Jokic to win his fourth MVP award this season.
Regardless, considering the level Jokic remains at, it wouldn't be surprising in the slightest to see him still in the MVP tier in five years and make this ranking look poor in hindsight. That's as long as he doesn't hit us with a shock retirement by then.
8. Jayson Tatum (33)
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We're taking a bit of a shot here ranking former Duke legend Jayson Tatum where we have him. Not only will he be 33 by 2030-31, but he already has a major Achilles injury to recover from. Sure, he's done a fantastic job in his injury recovery so far, returning from the torn Achilles in just around 10 months, but it's the kind of injury recovery that will need to be handled very carefully, at least until 2026-27, if not longer.
Health permitting, Tatum should still be one of the league's 10 best players in 2030-31, as his scoring, pre-injury, was elite, a 6-foot-8 swingman with fantastic ball-handling, a quick first step, difficult shot-making ability and high-level finishing around the basket. The main issue with Tatum was that, despite his physical and athletic gifts, he too often relied on his ability to make tough shots rather than attack the basket, draw fouls and pressure defenses closer to the rim.
On top of his high-level scoring, Tatum was also a great rebounder and playmaker for his position, as well as an underrated defender thanks to size and lateral quickness.
Where Tatum ranks in five years will ultimately come down to whether he can return to his pre-injury form and remain healthy if he does. But considering how future Hall-of-Famer Kevin Durant has looked since tearing his Achilles tendon himself, we have faith Tatum will be able to enjoy a similar post-injury return to elite form.
9. Jalen Johnson (29)
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Another bold prediction here, as we have Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson among the 10 best players in the NBA for 2030-31. Johnson is on a fast upward trajectory, going from putting up 2.4 points and 1.2 rebounds in 22 appearances as a rookie to earning All-Star honors for the first time in 2025-26, while surely in line to receive All-NBA votes this year, too.
Johnson will be squarely in his prime by the time our prediction becomes relevant. And if he continues to improve at the recent rate he has, we might be underrating him, if anything.
He is a smooth scoring wing with pull-up midrange bucket-getting, fantastic slashing chops and a solid outside stroke. He's also an elite rebounder for his position and a very effective playmaker, the kind of do-everything star forward that teams can build around. If Johnson is able to improve from being a career 33.3 percent three-point shooter up into the high 30s, an All-NBA spot will be his sooner rather than later.
The fifth-year forward has also done well to turn into a franchise cornerstone for the Atlanta Hawks, one that is slowly helping the team improve from its recent station as a perennial Play-In Tournament squad to perhaps something better.
10. Tyrese Maxey (30)
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Yet another young player who has seemingly gotten better every year, with no signs of slowing down on his ascent, Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey is one of the top 2-guards in the game today, putting up 29 points, four rebounds and six assists per contest, to go with two nightly steals and north of 37 percent shooting from three.
Maxey has elite quickness in the open floor and the halfcourt. He's capable of using his shiftiness, speed and ball-handling to get to the rack to finish among the trees, or stop on a dime, pull up and knock down midrange or three-point jumpers. Overall, he's a huge threat with the ball in his hands in a multitude of ways, but mostly centered around his blazing speed, quick crossover and shooting prowess.
There is some concern as far as projecting Maxey's play half a decade into the future, considering how much he depends on his elite athleticism to be effective. But if we use San Antonio Spurs lead guard De'Aaron Fox as an example, who likewise was a former Kentucky standout that took the NBA by storm early in his career using ridiculous speed, the fact that Fox is now 28 and still an All-Star leads us to believe Maxey will remain a top-level player by the 2030-31 season when he'll be in his late 20s, especially since he's more productive and impactful now than Fox ever was in his career.
11. Alperen Sengun (28)
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Although 2025-26 has been a bit of a disappointment for Turkish big man Alperen Sengun, the Houston Rockets center still earned All-Star honors for the second year in a row while leading a strong Rockets squad. Still, it must be noted that in this, his age-23 season, Sengun has regressed according to multiple advanced metrics.
That's been reflective in his actual play, too, as Sengun has been inconsistent on a night-to-night basis, in part due to his three-point shot remaining so shaky, along with his free-throw shooting being poor. Not only does Sengun not draw enough fouls, but once he gets to the foul stripe, he's sub-69 percent in accuracy as a foul shooter this year, which really hurts his impact.
That's all to say, that does give us pause as to declaring Sengun a borderline Top 10 player for 2030-31.
Still, we're banking on his age and his current All-Star level getting him into the All-NBA tier over the next five years. If Sengun just improves with his shooting, we're talking about a top big man in the league, because he's so good in other areas, primarily as a face-up center with elite playmaking for a frontcourt player, crafty scoring out of the post and very solid rebounding and screen-setting ability.
12. Jalen Williams (29)
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Had we written this immediately following his fantastic 2024-25 playoff run, we'd feel a whole lot more comfortable with his ranking here, as fourth-year Oklahoma City forward Jalen Williams has been plagued by injuries thus far in his follow-up campaign.
Still, we have plenty of evidence that Williams should get back to form once his health improves, as the former Santa Clara standout has shown plenty of promise thus far, early on in his career, as a very effective pull-up midrange scorer with star shot-making ability from that part of the floor. Williams has a throwback style of scoring, as not only can he shoot threes, but he can also hit fadeaways, turnarounds or pull-up jumpers over good defending, or attack the basket and finish around the rim.
Williams is also a fantastic defender on the other end of the floor, earning one 2nd Team All-Defense already in his career, and possessing a two-way skill set that should continue to be effective over the years to come, health permitting.
As such, we're betting on Williams returning to form and improving on it over the next five years, as he is still just 24 and has another level he may not have tapped into yet. We think he'll tap into it once he gets healthy again.
The one wildcard nobody's talking about yet: does he eventually pull a Harden and bolt OKC to step out of Shai's shadow and lead his own team?
13. Jaylen Brown (34)
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We're not knocking 2024 Finals MVP, Jaylen Brown, with his place in this ranking here, as the two-way swingman has upped his game to a regular-season MVP level in 2025-26, in the absence of star teammate, Jayson Tatum, reaching a level that not many were even sure he possessed.
Brown has remarkably set career-high averages across the board this season, putting up 28.4 points, 7.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game, as well as with his free-throw accuracy, where he's knocking down a career-best 79.2 percent of his attempts. He has also put the Celtics on his back without Tatum, as the team impressively sits at 45-23 this season, and No. 2 in the East, with most of the credit belonging to Brown for his work in keeping the team playing at an elite level in a campaign where most thought it could perhaps be in for a one-year reset, sans Tatum.
Not on Brown's watch, however, and he deserves so much praise for raising his game to an even higher level without Tatum around.
But what gave us pause with ranking him too high in this exercise is the fact that Brown will be 34 by the time 2030-31 rolls around, and his game is pretty athleticism-dependent, so we're not sure if the 29-year-old will be as effective a player in five years, at least not at his current borderline MVP level. Plus, even despite how productive Brown has been in 2025-26, the advanced analytics don't really reflect his raw output, as Brown ranks 48th in WS/48 this season and just 19th in BPM, which gave us pause in ranking him as a Top 10 player five years from now when he'll be in his mid-30s.
Brown's a solid shooter with some craft to his game, but he does depend a lot on his quickness and bounce to be as effective as he is, and we just can't project his level to remain the same when he'll be battling Father Time over the years to come.
14. Kon Knueppel (25)
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Anyone who has watched Charlotte Hornets rookie Kon Knueppel this season knows that us having predicted to be a Top 15 player for 2030-31 is far from a hot take, but for any doubters, let us explain.
As a first-year player, Knueppel, who isn't even 21 yet, by the way, ranks as a Top 26 player in the NBA according to WS/48, BPM and VORP, an absolutely ridiculous feat for a player who didn't even go Top 3 in his draft class. Knueppel's just such a good shooter and crafty scorer, with driving and pull-up-scoring ability, a high-IQ player with a fantastic nose for scoring.
Knueppel isn't only one of the best outside shooters in the league already, but he also knows how to attack strong closeouts to score on pull-up midrange jumpers, or even finish around the rim, making him a true three-level scorer as a 20-year-old. If anything, we're more worried that we have Knueppel ranked too low here than too high, as he looks like he'll be playing at an All-NBA level by 2030-31.
We also can't ignore that merely in Year 1, the former Blue Devil has already helped the Hornets improve from going 19-63 last season, to being above .500 in March of the following season, a major turnaround that we're very confident wouldn't have happened without his addition through the draft.
We're buying heavily into the Knueppel stock.
15. VJ Edgecombe (25)
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A player whom we have more faith in regarding their ranking here is 76ers rookie VJ Edgecombe, one of the most impressive first-year players in the league this season.
In 2025-26, Edgecombe has put up 15.3 points per game so far, to go with 5.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.4 steals per game, as a 20-year-old. Edgecombe is one of just nine players in league history to put up such a stat line before turning 21, joining a list featuring the likes of Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Magic Johnson, proving that his two-way potential is vast. Hence, his place in this ranking.
Edgecombe has an elite first step, fantastic quickness, an effective crossover, great hops near the rim and the ability to hit tough shots from both three and the midrange. A player with Edgecombe's level of explosiveness is extremely unique (he's truly that athletic), and that, coupled with his potential as a tough-shot-maker, leads us to believe the former Baylor Bear has an All-NBA ceiling, a level we think he'll reach by the time this prediction becomes relevant in five years.
Of course, Edgecombe will have work to do to get there, namely with his three-point shooting prowess, but his 34.5 percent accuracy from there as a rookie is respectable enough. Plus, the fact that the first-year guard is hitting 82.5 percent of his free throws this season also makes us think his three-point shooting should improve over the coming seasons.
Overall, Edgecombe has moments where he moves like a young Dwyane Wade, replete with the athleticism, fearlessness attacking the rim, and the tough shot-making from the midrange, so we think between him and Maxey, Philadelphia could boast the best backcourt in the NBA when 2030-31 rolls around - and it might not be all that close.
16. Stephen Castle (26)
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Fast-rising sophomore guard Stephon Castle has improved leaps and bounds from his first season to his second, which leads us to believe the future is quite bright for the former UConn Husky.
Already in his second campaign, Castle ranks among the game’s Top 70 players according to BPM and WS/48, and looking at his raw numbers, it’s easy to see why, as the athletic floor general is putting up over 16 points and seven assists per outing to go with 1.2 steals.
Possessing a strong two-way game for a guard, Castle’s impact has been felt in a huge way in San Antonio on both ends of the floor. Castle’s got a strong frame, athletic feet laterally and plays with great effort on the less glamorous end of the floor, giving him the makings of a future All-Defensive Team-level point-of-attack ball-stopper.
He’s also a fast-improving offensive player, though work remains to be done for Castle on that end, particularly with his outside jumper. Even so, Castle’s got a fantastic first step, great athleticism near the rim and can hit pull-up jumpers already.
All of those impressive two-way attributes for the reigning Rookie of the Year, plus the fact that he’ll have Wembanyama as a teammate for years to come, leads us to be very high on future Castle stock.
17. Darryn Peterson (23)
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Perhaps our boldest prediction in this piece is having potential No. 1 2026 NBA Draft pick, Darryn Peterson, in this ranking at all, as the 19-year-old is months away from his first dribble in an actual NBA game. He hasn't even played in the 2026 NCAA Tournament yet, at the time of this writing.
But from purely a talent standpoint, this may not be that reckless of a prediction, as Peterson had NBA evaluators salivating over his potential prior to his cramping issues in his freshman season at Kansas. The Ohio native is averaging nearly 20 points per game in his first season at Kansas, to go with 4.4 rebounds and 1.5 steals on 44.2 percent shooting from the floor and 38.4 percent from the three-point line.
According to recent reports, scouts still love Peterson's upside as a 2-guard with great size and athleticism, and star-level shot-making ability:
Of course, how he closes out his freshman season is going to matter a ton, as far as staying healthy and potentially leading Kansas on a deep tournament run. If he's able to do that, he should go first in the upcoming NBA Draft.
Regardless, we're going to take a swing here and say Peterson lives up to the hype, becomes the NBA's next great young 2-guard and cracks the Top 20 players in the NBA by 2030-31. He's got that much upside.
18. Evan Mobley (29)
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Either we're going to be right on point with Cleveland Cavaliers big man Evan Mobley's ranking prediction for five years from now on, or we're going to be way too low on him, as we think his career should go one of two ways: Either he'll remain at the same level he's on now, that of perennial All-Star/low-level All-NBAer, or he'll take the next step and reach his massive ceiling in the next half decade. We certainly don't think he'll regress as a player into his mid- to late-20s, but there's still a chance he does improve substantially, as Mobley is still just 24 years old.
Like Sengun, Mobley has stagnated or perhaps even regressed a bit from last season to this one, as the former USC standout has seen his BPM (4.6 to 2.9) and his WS/48 (0.200 to 0.144) both drop after his 2nd Team All-NBA, Top 10 in MVP voting finish in 2024-25. Mobley's play was deemed disappointing enough that he missed out on All-Star honors this season (in the weaker Eastern Conference, no less) and will assuredly also miss out on All-NBA this year, too, after such an impressive '25 campaign for him.
The main area in which Mobley has regressed is as an outside shooter, as Mobley has gone from a very respectable 37 percent over the previous two seasons to a paltry 30.5 percent from three this year, which has really hurt his nightly impact on offense.
Mobley still has all the promise in the world - a fleet-footed big man with great quickness, face-up scoring and driving ability, while being an elite defender on the other end thanks to his long arms and great instincts. But as long as his nightly aggressiveness doesn't improve, he won't be able to consistently reach that next level as a player, as there are too many times when Mobley simply doesn't attack hard enough on offense despite his vast potential in that area.
19. Paolo Banchero (28)
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Another young player who regressed from last season to this one, former No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero, has loads of promise behind his great size and skill, but he just hasn't put it all together to this point in his career. For Banchero to still have an All-Star appearance under his belt despite not putting it all together yet just speaks to his massive potential.
Even Banchero himself acknowledged that he didn't deserve to be an All-Star this season, in an interview with Andscape:
What Banchero lacks is in his shot selection, as he too often goes with the most difficult midrange shot attempt possible, as opposed to using his massive size and ball-handling ability to attack the rim relentlessly, where he could use his explosiveness to finish around the basket. Banchero's 13.4 drives per game this season is fewer than Darius Garland (13.9) and Jaime Jaquez Jr. (13.8), and his field-goal percentage on drives (46.1 percent) is over 10 percentage points lower than Trae Young's (57.6 percent), so maybe there is something to Banchero saying his health is affecting his play this season. Otherwise, those numbers would be even more concerning.
Banchero also struggles mightily (31.9 percent for his career) as an outside shooter, hurting his overall effectiveness on the offensive end.
Still, we're counting on Banchero's freakish physique and bully-ball potential, and the fact he's still only 23, to help him hit the next level over the next five years. Because if he doesn't improve upon his 2025-26 output, he probably won't be among the 20 best players for 2030-31. It's not like he's close to being a Top 20 player now.
20. Giannis Antetokounmpo (36)
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A player so dependent on athleticism and relentless effort, two-time league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo has had a tough 2025-26 season due to lingering injury issues related to his calf and knee, which gave us pause as to ranking him too highly in this future-oriented exercise.
Still, we're hedging our bet a bit here by still projecting him to be a Top 20 player in the league in five years, when he'll be 36. Even then, that might be a little lofty, especially if those injury troubles don't dissipate as he gets older. Will Antetokounmpo's body hold up as well as LeBron James' has? If it doesn't, it won't be for a lack of trying, as Antetokounmpo clearly works hard on and off the court to remain among the game's elite. But sometimes, the wear and tear gets to be too much, and Antetokounmpo goes full throttle on a nightly basis on both ends of the floor, which may cause him to decline physically faster than expected.
Regardless, Antetokounmpo had a down year in 2025-26 and still put up a monstrous 27.6/9.8/5.4 stat line on 62.4 percent shooting from the floor. If that's the Greek Freak on the decline, then we should still have years of elite play to enjoy out of him.
Plus, with a much-rumored potential change of scenery coming for Antetokounmpo, perhaps as early as this offseason, maybe the 31-year-old will be able to extend his peak longer if surrounded by better talent on another team.
This article originally appeared on Hoops Hype: Future Rankings: Who will be the NBA's best in five years?
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