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Red Bull’s Max Verstappen demonstrated his brilliance in Suzuka to beat Lando Norris in the McLaren - Shutterstock/Franck Robichon
What have we learnt from the first three rounds of the 2025 Formula One season? McLaren have the fastest car, but a problematic Red Bull in the hands of Max Verstappen will be stiff competition for them. There are still 21 rounds remaining, but a fight between the two McLarens and the lead Red Bull looks the most likely path for the drivers’ championship.
The first three rounds have all been run in slightly unusual conditions, or with unexpected factors: rain in Australia and far less tyre wear in both China and Japan. This has perhaps exacerbated some cars’ strengths and hidden others’ weaknesses.
With teams’ development focus shifting to the enormous change in regulations coming next year, there are four races in the next 10 weeks that will tell us plenty about the direction of the championship.
Will McLaren extend their advantage, redefining Suzuka as a one-off demonstration of Verstappen’s brilliance? Or can Red Bull put themselves on a path that leads towards a fifth championship for the Dutchman?
Round four: Bahrain, April 13
We might learn less from returning to the site of pre-season testing than in previous seasons. Conditions in February were unusually cold and wet and that is unlikely to be the case for the Bahrain Grand Prix this weekend. McLaren’s long-run pace looked ominous then, but Red Bull did not even manage a useful race simulation. A fair comparison might be difficult.
We can still learn plenty as F1 returns to Sakhir. It is another data point and will test the strength of McLaren’s status as front-runners. It is possible that McLaren’s advantage will be increased in Bahrain. Lando Norris has complained of rear-end instability with the MCL39 and there are plenty of opportunities for that to crop up in Bahrain, where there are several slow-speed corners and rear traction is crucial. Yet, as Andrea Stella, the team principal, noted, the latter causes the former.
Encouragingly, McLaren were able to dominate in the first part of the race in Australia because their rear tyre wear was far less than their rivals. The characteristics of the Suzuka track on Sunday did not allow them to exploit that strength but Bahrain could, especially if the temperatures are higher. It may be a case of damage limitation for Red Bull if those rear-tyre woes appear as they did at Albert Park.
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McLaren were able to dominate in the first part of the race in Australia because their rear tyre wear was far less than their rivals - Getty Images/Clive Mason
Round five: Saudi Arabia, April 20
The high-speed layout in Jeddah will perhaps give some insight into how much of an advantage there is for those teams best exploiting aero-elasticity in their front and rear wings. These flexi-wings have been a thorny issue in the sport over the past year.
As their name suggests, these wings flex at high speed, thus reducing drag on the straights (increasing top speed) while not sacrificing downforce in the corners. They are especially useful with the current ground-effect machines and allow a car to achieve greater balance between high and low-speed corners. Last year, it was felt by certain teams (Red Bull and Ferrari) that other outfits (McLaren and Mercedes) were gaining an advantage in this area.
The FIA did not change the regulations at the time, so both Red Bull and Ferrari introduced their own flexi-wings with mixed results. Ferrari appeared to improve but Red Bull less so. The FIA did end up implementing stricter regulations in this regard, but in a phased approach with more scrutiny on rear wings from the start of 2025 (and again from China) and on front wings from round nine this year.
There will be numerous factors as to why a team will be fast or slow at Jeddah but, given the high speeds and long straights there, any flexi-wing advantage could be exaggerated. Exaggerated enough for us to notice? It is difficult to say.
Let us not forget that drivers play a part, too. On a track like this that requires 100 per cent commitment, Verstappen is your man. If the RB21 is up to it, then he may well find more over one lap than Norris and Oscar Piastri.
Round six: Miami, May 4
Miami is a street-style circuit with unusual characteristics. It is, though, a track which McLaren should go well on. It was there last year that Norris took his first grand prix win and where McLaren’s radical upgrade package put them on the course to compete at the front in every single race.
The high-speed sections may favour McLaren, but there are some slower sections, too, which could play more into Red Bull’s hands. There is normally more to be lost or gained in the low-speed. What we are looking for at this point is trends. Six races on six varying tracks is a decent sample from which to judge strengths and weaknesses looking both backwards and forwards.
This will also be Yuki Tsunoda’s fourth race with Red Bull. The team’s hope that his feedback will help develop and fine-tune the RB21, in turn aiding Verstappen’s championship hopes, will have been tested.
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Red Bull hope Yuki Tsunoda’s feedback will help develop and fine-tune the RB21 - Getty Images/Kym Illman
We will also be able to see just how effective Red Bull’s early-season upgrades have been. It is also a sprint race, where more points are available over the weekend. In a season of small margins, that makes it all the more important.
Round nine: Spain, June 1
The moment of truth? The Spanish Grand Prix is the race where all F1 teams will be required to run their new-spec non-flexi front wings. All wings flex to some degree, but the permitted tolerance will be lowered. Could this turn the order at the front on its head?
It is unlikely that any team are gaining so much performance through their flexi-wings that they will slip drastically down the order under the altered regulations. In any case, the teams have had plenty of time to develop and optimise their new wings. But any baked-in advantage may disappear.
Given the small margins between the top four (and the fluctuations), even one team closing up on another puts more emphasis on the driver and team to get the most from both set-up and weekend execution. Multiply that by the remaining 16 races and even a small effect could be decisive.
Any difference may not be immediately clear to see after just one round, or even after a few more. But by the end of the season it is not inconceivable that the change in regulations is looked upon as a turning point in the championship.
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