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The 2026 NCAA Tournament has been the usual wild ride (Good lord, UConn, and you, Braylon Mullins), and now we’re down to the Final Four, sports fans.
No surprise there. But it is a bit jarring not to see Duke among the Regional winners. As you most definitely have heard, read, and seen and seen and see again, Dan Hurley’s Huskies delivered a doozy of a victory over the disbelieving Blue Devils.
So, it’s Connecticut vs. Illinois to tip things off Saturday, April 4 (6:09 p.m. ET/3:09 p.m. PT, TBS/TNT/truTV/HBO Max), followed by the highly anticipated Michigan vs. Arizona showdown (8:49 p.m. ET/5:49 p.m. PT, TBS/TNT/truTV/HBO Max).
RELATED: Latest CBB stories, pundit analysis and more at The Big Lead
Many believe the winner of the potent nightcap — sans Boozers — will be the national champion. The Wolverines and Wildcats have certainly looked like the two best teams heading to the Final Four.
Michigan, which is seeking its second men’s basketball title in school history, hasn’t been tested through four games. The Wolverines’ average margin of victory is a whopping 22.5 points per game thus far.
That, of course, will end Saturday night. In fact, even though Michigan is a slight favorite (-2 points, according to BetMGM) to beat Arizona …
Mar 29, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Michigan Wolverines forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) cuts the net after defeating Tennessee Volunteers in an Elite Eight game of the Midwest Regional of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images
… I believe the Wolverines will beat the Wildcats by double digits.
Say what, you say?
You read that right.
Arizona has been awesome all season. The ‘Cats go at least eight deep, they’re balanced, and play elite defense, just like Michigan.
But I think 3-point shooting will finally catch up with the Wildcats in the sense that they’ve hardly taken any all year. A mere 26.4% of the team’s field goal attempts this season have been from deep — 363rd out of 365 teams.
Michigan will force them to fire from deep by bottling up the middle. Plus, I think the Wolverines have the better athletes overall, and they’ll be well-rested after their four tourney blowouts.
Per ESPN: “These teams will have six days of preparation for each other, which should keep the defenses sharper at the outset. Add in the fact that this game is at Lucas Oil Stadium, and the sightlines will be different. There have been three other Final Fours in this venue. In 2021, both national semifinal totals were 145.5 and 134. In 2015, the semifinal totals were 131 and 140. Lastly, in 2010, the totals were 136.5 and 128.”
Call it Michigan 82, Arizona 72.
Which brings us to the betting line for points scored and to our …
Michigan Wolverines center Aday Mara (15) reacts after scoring during the second half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at State Farm Center. Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images
The Arizona-Michigan matchup will be decided in the paint, on both ends, so I was expecting a low number.
This won’t be a shootout; the defenses are just too good.
Still, I did a double-take when looking at the over/under total: 158 points.
That seems a tad high (I have it at 154), especially if either of those teams struggles from deep (looking at you ‘Cats). Both bruising teams will get physical, and that will keep the score down as baskets inside will be at a premium.
I particularly like a low-scoring first half so strongly consider the under at 72.5 points for the first 20 minutes.
In the earlier matchup, Illinois poses all sorts of challenges for those plucky Huskies which means it’s time for …
Mar 26, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) and guard Andrej Stojakovic (2) reacts after the game in a Sweet Sixteen game of the South Regional of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
First, Illinois is better all around than Connecticut, and its luck simply has to have run out, right?
So a victory puts the Fighting Illini into its first national championship game since 2005.
And, here goes nothin’ when people wonder if I’m connected to reality by picking … Illinois to win it all.
Have I gone, dare I say, completely mad?
Possibly, but here me out.
Illinois will clamp down — or at least slow down — Michigan defensively.
The Illini’s defense has allowed .976 points per possession in the NCAA Tournament, the fewest of the final four teams.
I also believe the Fightin’ Illini will beat the Wolverines in the crucial rebounding battle. Michigan’s +16.3 per game over opponents through four tourney matchups is tops in this foursome.
Plus, in the lllini’s eight-man rotation, seven players are 6-foot-6 or taller. Illinois’ height could be the difference in this championship tilt, while sending the school to new heights.
Finally, that gets us to …
Mar 28, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell (4) and guard Keaton Wagler (23) react in the second half against the Iowa Hawkeyes during an Elite Eight game of the South Regional of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images
Fingers trembling as I write this: Illinois will be the 2026 NCAA Tournament champion.
Despite their outstanding record, polished play, and impressive metrics, the Fighting Illini are sort of flying under the radar a bit.
What I really like about Illinois, besides everything previously mentioned, is its backcourt of senior Kylan Boswell and freshman Keaton Wagler. Old and young working as a terrific tandem. The pesky pair will give Michigan’s guards headaches.
Mar 26, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) and guard Andrej Stojakovic (2) reacts after the game in a Sweet Sixteen game of the South Regional of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
Mar 28, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell (4) celebrates with the trophy on the podium after defeating the Iowa Hawkeyes in an Elite Eight game of the South Regional of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
The Fighting Illini are damn good. They could also be catching an exhausted Michigan squad at the right time: Monday night (April 6) in the title game (TBS, TNT, truTV, and HBO Max)
Illinois has never won an NCAA title in men’s basketball, so there’s that.
The Fighting Illini were ranked 17th in the AP Top 25 preseason poll but they’ll close out the year No. 1.
Continue reading...
No surprise there. But it is a bit jarring not to see Duke among the Regional winners. As you most definitely have heard, read, and seen and seen and see again, Dan Hurley’s Huskies delivered a doozy of a victory over the disbelieving Blue Devils.
So, it’s Connecticut vs. Illinois to tip things off Saturday, April 4 (6:09 p.m. ET/3:09 p.m. PT, TBS/TNT/truTV/HBO Max), followed by the highly anticipated Michigan vs. Arizona showdown (8:49 p.m. ET/5:49 p.m. PT, TBS/TNT/truTV/HBO Max).
RELATED: Latest CBB stories, pundit analysis and more at The Big Lead
Many believe the winner of the potent nightcap — sans Boozers — will be the national champion. The Wolverines and Wildcats have certainly looked like the two best teams heading to the Final Four.
Michigan, which is seeking its second men’s basketball title in school history, hasn’t been tested through four games. The Wolverines’ average margin of victory is a whopping 22.5 points per game thus far.
That, of course, will end Saturday night. In fact, even though Michigan is a slight favorite (-2 points, according to BetMGM) to beat Arizona …
Final Four: Bold prediction No. 1
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Mar 29, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Michigan Wolverines forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) cuts the net after defeating Tennessee Volunteers in an Elite Eight game of the Midwest Regional of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images
… I believe the Wolverines will beat the Wildcats by double digits.
Say what, you say?
You read that right.
Arizona has been awesome all season. The ‘Cats go at least eight deep, they’re balanced, and play elite defense, just like Michigan.
But I think 3-point shooting will finally catch up with the Wildcats in the sense that they’ve hardly taken any all year. A mere 26.4% of the team’s field goal attempts this season have been from deep — 363rd out of 365 teams.
Michigan will force them to fire from deep by bottling up the middle. Plus, I think the Wolverines have the better athletes overall, and they’ll be well-rested after their four tourney blowouts.
Per ESPN: “These teams will have six days of preparation for each other, which should keep the defenses sharper at the outset. Add in the fact that this game is at Lucas Oil Stadium, and the sightlines will be different. There have been three other Final Fours in this venue. In 2021, both national semifinal totals were 145.5 and 134. In 2015, the semifinal totals were 131 and 140. Lastly, in 2010, the totals were 136.5 and 128.”
Call it Michigan 82, Arizona 72.
Which brings us to the betting line for points scored and to our …
Final Four: Bold prediction No. 2
You must be registered for see images attach
Michigan Wolverines center Aday Mara (15) reacts after scoring during the second half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at State Farm Center. Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images
The Arizona-Michigan matchup will be decided in the paint, on both ends, so I was expecting a low number.
This won’t be a shootout; the defenses are just too good.
Still, I did a double-take when looking at the over/under total: 158 points.
That seems a tad high (I have it at 154), especially if either of those teams struggles from deep (looking at you ‘Cats). Both bruising teams will get physical, and that will keep the score down as baskets inside will be at a premium.
I particularly like a low-scoring first half so strongly consider the under at 72.5 points for the first 20 minutes.
In the earlier matchup, Illinois poses all sorts of challenges for those plucky Huskies which means it’s time for …
Final Four: Bold prediction No. 3
You must be registered for see images attach
Mar 26, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) and guard Andrej Stojakovic (2) reacts after the game in a Sweet Sixteen game of the South Regional of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
First, Illinois is better all around than Connecticut, and its luck simply has to have run out, right?
So a victory puts the Fighting Illini into its first national championship game since 2005.
And, here goes nothin’ when people wonder if I’m connected to reality by picking … Illinois to win it all.
Have I gone, dare I say, completely mad?
Possibly, but here me out.
Illinois will clamp down — or at least slow down — Michigan defensively.
The Illini’s defense has allowed .976 points per possession in the NCAA Tournament, the fewest of the final four teams.
I also believe the Fightin’ Illini will beat the Wolverines in the crucial rebounding battle. Michigan’s +16.3 per game over opponents through four tourney matchups is tops in this foursome.
Plus, in the lllini’s eight-man rotation, seven players are 6-foot-6 or taller. Illinois’ height could be the difference in this championship tilt, while sending the school to new heights.
Finally, that gets us to …
Final Four: Bold prediction No. 4
You must be registered for see images attach
Mar 28, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell (4) and guard Keaton Wagler (23) react in the second half against the Iowa Hawkeyes during an Elite Eight game of the South Regional of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images
Fingers trembling as I write this: Illinois will be the 2026 NCAA Tournament champion.
Despite their outstanding record, polished play, and impressive metrics, the Fighting Illini are sort of flying under the radar a bit.
What I really like about Illinois, besides everything previously mentioned, is its backcourt of senior Kylan Boswell and freshman Keaton Wagler. Old and young working as a terrific tandem. The pesky pair will give Michigan’s guards headaches.
Bold prediction No. 4
You must be registered for see images attach
Mar 26, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) and guard Andrej Stojakovic (2) reacts after the game in a Sweet Sixteen game of the South Regional of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
Conclusion
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Mar 28, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell (4) celebrates with the trophy on the podium after defeating the Iowa Hawkeyes in an Elite Eight game of the South Regional of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
The Fighting Illini are damn good. They could also be catching an exhausted Michigan squad at the right time: Monday night (April 6) in the title game (TBS, TNT, truTV, and HBO Max)
Illinois has never won an NCAA title in men’s basketball, so there’s that.
The Fighting Illini were ranked 17th in the AP Top 25 preseason poll but they’ll close out the year No. 1.
Continue reading...
