- Joined
- May 8, 2002
- Posts
- 1,266,087
- Reaction score
- 59
Today's column is based on current Yahoo ADP, using half PPR scoring with a 1QB-2RB-3WR-1TE-1FLEX starting lineup. You can find my rankings here, and then more of my draft prep in the Yahoo Fantasy Ultra Draft Kit.
Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2026 NFL season
The Yahoo Fantasy Ultra Draft Kit is part of our new Yahoo Fantasy Ultra subscription tier of Fantasy Plus. A subscription also includes several top-notch tools including a draft strategy lab where you can test various approaches. If you're looking to up your game this season, consider Fantasy Ultra.
The NFL's all-time leader in receiving yards per game (95.3) is the clear target dominator on the offense projected for the most points by betting markets. All it takes for Nacua to have an all-time fantasy season is more red-zone touchdowns, as Davante Adams out-targeted him there (27% vs. 17% target share). If Nacua gets that to even or somehow surpasses Adams, it's a wrap.
Off a Super Bowl MVP, Walker joins a perennial top-10 offense to be the clear lead back. There's no investment behind him on the depth chart, and the early signs in training camp have been promising for Walker. He's catching the ball (not a surprise with coach Andy Reid's screen history), and the team is getting under center more than before (not a surprise with Patrick Mahomes coming off an ACL tear).
Walker's numbers are already good, but it's important to note that this is easily the best offensive line of his career with the worst competition behind him. If Reid treats Walker like a bellcow, there's precedent for ludicrous fantasy seasons — just take a look at the box scores for LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Brian Westbrook and Duce Staley.
From 2024 to Week 4 of last year when he tore his ACL, Nabers was the WR6 on WR3 usage. Keep in mind the Giants were 31st in points per game and 27th in passing yards per game during that stretch, with a hilarious string of QBs. Jaxson Dart clears that collection comfortably, and the Giants' OL is in better shape with first-round RG Francis Mauigoa in the mix and star LT Andrew Thomas healthy. Meanwhile, the receiving depth is as laughable as before, which should allow for a 30% target share if Nabers is truly healthy.
The last part is the unknown, but dodging training camp PUP was the hint that we needed to believe the 23-year-old freak athlete is going to be just okay this season. Buy the dip.
Etienne has cleared 1,399 total yards in three-of-four healthy seasons, and it can be easily argued that this Saints OL is the best of Etienne's career. Additionally, the Saints played at the fastest neutral pace under coach Kellen Moore last season, a trend that dates back years as a play caller. It's true that Alvin Kamara will play some, if not most, of the passing-down snaps as the complement, but Kamara is just a brand name at this point and only 23% of receiving fantasy points by RBs last year came on third down.
Thirty-five-of-thirty-six receptions by Etienne last year were on early downs specifically. That's enough to pay off this falling ADP. He was the RB11 in fantasy points per game last year in a committee, while only having RB27 receptions per game. That's the value of goal-line and early-down volume.
I'm not sure anything has changed here. Swift was the RB15 on RB19 usage last year while being in a two-to-one split with Kyle Managai. Both were effective, though Swift runs with more burst and offers more as a receiver. It's possible the Bears offense takes the next leap, but even if they finish near the No. 9 offense that they were last year, Swift is a high-floor option in Round 5 next to very flimsy running back options.
There appears to be a large drop off in upside after the top eight TEs are off the board. The last call is Pitts, who finally showed that he was healthy last season after multiple years of playing on a bum knee. His acceleration and agility seemed to be as good as it was during his record-breaking rookie season, and now he's in a good spot to be a little more consistent in 2026. New coach Kevin Stefanski will have plenty of first-read targets to his TEs, as he did with David Njoku and Harold Fannin Jr., and the lack of a proven WR2 in the Falcons offense means Pitts' weekly volume is projectable.
If something happens to Drake London, Pitts has "elite TE1" in his range of outcomes. He averaged 7.0 receptions and 84 yards in five games without London last season. That's nearly impossible to find after the Round 6/7 turn on Yahoo.
Last season, Warren quietly was the RB20 on RB22 usage, even with Kenny Gainwell (RB26 on RB25 usage) emerging as a very-involved team MVP next to him. Those exact roles won't exist with power-based Rico Dowdle as the new backup and with pass-first coach Mike McCarthy calling plays, but it's important to note the Steelers did have two FLEX-worthy options in the backfield just last year. They are able to do so because this is one of the best OLs, and Rodgers doesn't want to get hit. They run the ball at the goal line and scheme up receptions to the backfield.
Warren has popped on film and in the spreadsheets for years, and this is his best chance to run away from the competition as the clear starter. He fits what Rodgers and McCarthy want in their offense.
This ADP is simply way too low. The training camp reports matched what happened late in 2025: Washington is the target leader. It's helpful to have Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter as the deep threats in the offense, but the digs, shallow crosses, slants and screens seem to be headed Washington's way. He has been the top target in camp and was the intended target when coach Liam Coen was asked what his favorite play is.
Washington was roasting some of the top corners in football last year and seems like a true sicko in terms of work ethic. Just look at his calves. From Week 7 on when he became a near full-time player, Washington was PPR's WR18 on WR15 usage with a 21% target share. I can see him nearly repeating that.
My favorite QB strategy in 2026 is to double-click the position in this range. The elite QBs go in a range where their opportunity cost is too large for how many points over replacement they project for, and there's more depth than ever at QB after the depth at RB and TE are soaked up. Nix is a fun option, as he's been fantasy football's QB9 in back-to-back seasons before the Broncos added Mr. Jaylen Waddle to provide the much-needed yards-after-catch ability. Nix appears healthy in camp after a broken ankle, and the offense is always very pass-heavy and well-coached up front under coach Sean Payton. The floor is higher than his ADP.
With Michael Pittman Jr. traded for nothing and Alec Pierce still rehabbing a delayed ankle surgery, the Colts have had no choice but to put Downs in a full-time role during training camp. He hasn't played many 2-WR set snaps in his career so far, which has become a requirement to matter in fantasy football most recently. That changes this year. That'd mean an extra 8.2 routes, 2ish targets and 15ish yards per game onto Downs' plate versus last year, if the Colts don't change their personnel groupings. Those numbers could climb even further if Pierce's season ends up as a waste.
Efficiency is not up for debate. Last year, Love was the QB2 in EPA per dropback, even with the OL disappointing. The only question really is if he can have more dropbacks to raise his ceiling and floor. The Packers defense missing Micah Parsons for about a month will help those odds in the first weeks of the season, but there's a chance Love sets a career-high in attempts this year with coach Matt LaFleur preaching pace and getting the plays in quicker all offseason.
They also could lean into all of their investments in Christian Watson (4-year, $92M), Jayden Reed (3-year, $50M), Tucker Kraft (extension is on its way) and Matthew Golden (2025 first-rounder — more on him later), instead of the old-school approach behind the potentially-suspended Josh Jacobs. If so, Love goes from upside QB2 to trustable low-end QB1 at a nearly-free draft-price tag. He's also fun to stack with those pass-catchers listed above.
I am not convinced Worthy is good. I am convinced there is upside, however. The Chiefs put him in an impossible position for his skill set to win after his shoulder came undone by Travis Kelce on the fourth snap of the season last year. His screen rate and crosser rate were cut in half, and these YAC routes are how he will win in the NFL. Instead, Worthy was tossed on the ball to run clear-out routes against press coverage, while Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce were given the easy looks. All of that should even out in 2026 with Rice working back from another surgery and with Kelce working back from the wedding of the century. I'd expect Worthy's "fun" involvement to double this year, and I'm always fine with betting against Rice's floor.
Former first-round WRs in their second season attached to the projected No. 8 scoring offense are usually priced way ahead of WR50, but Golden was a part-time player as a rookie and wasn't universally loved by the fantasy/dynasty community as a prospect. It's easy for them to write him off so early into his career, and I'll simply fade that idea. The Packers allowed Romeo Doubs to walk and traded Dontayvon Wicks in the same offseason, partially because they have faith in Golden growing into an explosive X receiver.
Doubs turned that into a WR37 per-game finish on WR35 usage last season, and Golden's upside is definitely higher based on his athleticism and college profile. Golden was just missed on multiple downfield throws last year, and the Packers didn't scheme him up as much as I think he can handle. With a better understanding of the playbook and with better chemistry with Jordan Love, it's easy to see how Golden turns into an exciting secondary target behind Christian Watson.
I fully expect a three-back committee in Jacksonville. There's precedent of this with coach Liam Coen for years, and it's the best way to use the complimentary skill sets between the explosive Bhayshul Tuten, the physical C-Rod and the pass-protecting LeQuint Allen. If Tuten can be more trustworthy, then he's the guy to roster, but he wasn't trustworthy last year, and that's Rodriguez's exact calling card. This training camp, Rodriguez has been the designated short-yardage back, and in half PPR, that's the role we need to be a FLEX option. It was funny to hear Coen describe his goals from the backfield to "be efficient" and then finish his ramble by describing Rodriguez as "efficient," and I'm taking his connection with C-Rod back in his Kentucky days as a real indicator that high-value touches are coming.
If Tuten flops or misses time, I could see a Javonte Williams type of season here.
Hunter looks jacked. It's to the point that we should absolutely believe him and the entire organization that he's ready to play tons of snaps on each side of the ball. After watching the first week of training camp, Sports Illustrated's John Shipley now believes 80% snaps on defense and up to 50% snaps of offense is possible, if not likely. Hunter is playing more boundary receiver and running more downfield routes this camp, and that's the exact role he crushed in college and for moments as a rookie. If an injury to one of the top three receivers occurred, Hunter is destined for 67% or more of offensive snaps. That'd be enough to FLEX if he's as good as I think he can be.
And it's possible all of this is underselling him. The freeness of his ADP allows us to dream big without consequence. That's the whole point of sleepers.
The Mike McDaniel offense is one we want, particularly in terms of undersized, speed-based backups. Mitchell is not only an analytics darling, he's an analytics king. Mitchell is the RB1 in rush yards over expected (+47%), RB1 in EPA per carry (+0.12) and RB2 in YPC (6.3) among RBs with 100+ carries since 2023, and he seamlessly can operate the perimeter-based runs we saw out of De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert in Miami. If he can get to 8-10 touches per game, that'd be enough to consider him a starter in deeper formats. Omarion Hampton will have to flop for that to happen, but Hampton's rookie season was filled with indecisiveness in my opinion.
It's a bonus that Mitchell's training camp has been filled with more receiving work than he's ever had in the pros, but I can see it marginally carrying over to the regular season based on his college profile, where he had 22 and 27 receptions as a sophomore and junior, respectively.
Continue reading...
Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2026 NFL season
The Yahoo Fantasy Ultra Draft Kit is part of our new Yahoo Fantasy Ultra subscription tier of Fantasy Plus. A subscription also includes several top-notch tools including a draft strategy lab where you can test various approaches. If you're looking to up your game this season, consider Fantasy Ultra.
1.04 - WR2 Puka Nacua
The NFL's all-time leader in receiving yards per game (95.3) is the clear target dominator on the offense projected for the most points by betting markets. All it takes for Nacua to have an all-time fantasy season is more red-zone touchdowns, as Davante Adams out-targeted him there (27% vs. 17% target share). If Nacua gets that to even or somehow surpasses Adams, it's a wrap.
2.17 - RB10 Kenneth Walker III
Off a Super Bowl MVP, Walker joins a perennial top-10 offense to be the clear lead back. There's no investment behind him on the depth chart, and the early signs in training camp have been promising for Walker. He's catching the ball (not a surprise with coach Andy Reid's screen history), and the team is getting under center more than before (not a surprise with Patrick Mahomes coming off an ACL tear).
Walker's numbers are already good, but it's important to note that this is easily the best offensive line of his career with the worst competition behind him. If Reid treats Walker like a bellcow, there's precedent for ludicrous fantasy seasons — just take a look at the box scores for LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Brian Westbrook and Duce Staley.
3.36 - WR15 Malik Nabers
From 2024 to Week 4 of last year when he tore his ACL, Nabers was the WR6 on WR3 usage. Keep in mind the Giants were 31st in points per game and 27th in passing yards per game during that stretch, with a hilarious string of QBs. Jaxson Dart clears that collection comfortably, and the Giants' OL is in better shape with first-round RG Francis Mauigoa in the mix and star LT Andrew Thomas healthy. Meanwhile, the receiving depth is as laughable as before, which should allow for a 30% target share if Nabers is truly healthy.
The last part is the unknown, but dodging training camp PUP was the hint that we needed to believe the 23-year-old freak athlete is going to be just okay this season. Buy the dip.
4.41 - RB19 Travis Etienne Jr.
Etienne has cleared 1,399 total yards in three-of-four healthy seasons, and it can be easily argued that this Saints OL is the best of Etienne's career. Additionally, the Saints played at the fastest neutral pace under coach Kellen Moore last season, a trend that dates back years as a play caller. It's true that Alvin Kamara will play some, if not most, of the passing-down snaps as the complement, but Kamara is just a brand name at this point and only 23% of receiving fantasy points by RBs last year came on third down.
Thirty-five-of-thirty-six receptions by Etienne last year were on early downs specifically. That's enough to pay off this falling ADP. He was the RB11 in fantasy points per game last year in a committee, while only having RB27 receptions per game. That's the value of goal-line and early-down volume.
5.49 - RB20 D'Andre Swift
I'm not sure anything has changed here. Swift was the RB15 on RB19 usage last year while being in a two-to-one split with Kyle Managai. Both were effective, though Swift runs with more burst and offers more as a receiver. It's possible the Bears offense takes the next leap, but even if they finish near the No. 9 offense that they were last year, Swift is a high-floor option in Round 5 next to very flimsy running back options.
6.72 - TE8 Kyle Pitts Sr.
There appears to be a large drop off in upside after the top eight TEs are off the board. The last call is Pitts, who finally showed that he was healthy last season after multiple years of playing on a bum knee. His acceleration and agility seemed to be as good as it was during his record-breaking rookie season, and now he's in a good spot to be a little more consistent in 2026. New coach Kevin Stefanski will have plenty of first-read targets to his TEs, as he did with David Njoku and Harold Fannin Jr., and the lack of a proven WR2 in the Falcons offense means Pitts' weekly volume is projectable.
If something happens to Drake London, Pitts has "elite TE1" in his range of outcomes. He averaged 7.0 receptions and 84 yards in five games without London last season. That's nearly impossible to find after the Round 6/7 turn on Yahoo.
7.73 - RB28 Jaylen Warren
Last season, Warren quietly was the RB20 on RB22 usage, even with Kenny Gainwell (RB26 on RB25 usage) emerging as a very-involved team MVP next to him. Those exact roles won't exist with power-based Rico Dowdle as the new backup and with pass-first coach Mike McCarthy calling plays, but it's important to note the Steelers did have two FLEX-worthy options in the backfield just last year. They are able to do so because this is one of the best OLs, and Rodgers doesn't want to get hit. They run the ball at the goal line and scheme up receptions to the backfield.
Warren has popped on film and in the spreadsheets for years, and this is his best chance to run away from the competition as the clear starter. He fits what Rodgers and McCarthy want in their offense.
8.88 - WR35 Parker Washington
This ADP is simply way too low. The training camp reports matched what happened late in 2025: Washington is the target leader. It's helpful to have Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter as the deep threats in the offense, but the digs, shallow crosses, slants and screens seem to be headed Washington's way. He has been the top target in camp and was the intended target when coach Liam Coen was asked what his favorite play is.
Washington was roasting some of the top corners in football last year and seems like a true sicko in terms of work ethic. Just look at his calves. From Week 7 on when he became a near full-time player, Washington was PPR's WR18 on WR15 usage with a 21% target share. I can see him nearly repeating that.
9.102 - QB15 Bo Nix
My favorite QB strategy in 2026 is to double-click the position in this range. The elite QBs go in a range where their opportunity cost is too large for how many points over replacement they project for, and there's more depth than ever at QB after the depth at RB and TE are soaked up. Nix is a fun option, as he's been fantasy football's QB9 in back-to-back seasons before the Broncos added Mr. Jaylen Waddle to provide the much-needed yards-after-catch ability. Nix appears healthy in camp after a broken ankle, and the offense is always very pass-heavy and well-coached up front under coach Sean Payton. The floor is higher than his ADP.
10.118 - WR43 Josh Downs
With Michael Pittman Jr. traded for nothing and Alec Pierce still rehabbing a delayed ankle surgery, the Colts have had no choice but to put Downs in a full-time role during training camp. He hasn't played many 2-WR set snaps in his career so far, which has become a requirement to matter in fantasy football most recently. That changes this year. That'd mean an extra 8.2 routes, 2ish targets and 15ish yards per game onto Downs' plate versus last year, if the Colts don't change their personnel groupings. Those numbers could climb even further if Pierce's season ends up as a waste.
11.128 - QB18 Jordan Love
Efficiency is not up for debate. Last year, Love was the QB2 in EPA per dropback, even with the OL disappointing. The only question really is if he can have more dropbacks to raise his ceiling and floor. The Packers defense missing Micah Parsons for about a month will help those odds in the first weeks of the season, but there's a chance Love sets a career-high in attempts this year with coach Matt LaFleur preaching pace and getting the plays in quicker all offseason.
They also could lean into all of their investments in Christian Watson (4-year, $92M), Jayden Reed (3-year, $50M), Tucker Kraft (extension is on its way) and Matthew Golden (2025 first-rounder — more on him later), instead of the old-school approach behind the potentially-suspended Josh Jacobs. If so, Love goes from upside QB2 to trustable low-end QB1 at a nearly-free draft-price tag. He's also fun to stack with those pass-catchers listed above.
12.133 - WR48 Xavier Worthy
I am not convinced Worthy is good. I am convinced there is upside, however. The Chiefs put him in an impossible position for his skill set to win after his shoulder came undone by Travis Kelce on the fourth snap of the season last year. His screen rate and crosser rate were cut in half, and these YAC routes are how he will win in the NFL. Instead, Worthy was tossed on the ball to run clear-out routes against press coverage, while Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce were given the easy looks. All of that should even out in 2026 with Rice working back from another surgery and with Kelce working back from the wedding of the century. I'd expect Worthy's "fun" involvement to double this year, and I'm always fine with betting against Rice's floor.
13.145 - WR50 Matthew Golden
Former first-round WRs in their second season attached to the projected No. 8 scoring offense are usually priced way ahead of WR50, but Golden was a part-time player as a rookie and wasn't universally loved by the fantasy/dynasty community as a prospect. It's easy for them to write him off so early into his career, and I'll simply fade that idea. The Packers allowed Romeo Doubs to walk and traded Dontayvon Wicks in the same offseason, partially because they have faith in Golden growing into an explosive X receiver.
Doubs turned that into a WR37 per-game finish on WR35 usage last season, and Golden's upside is definitely higher based on his athleticism and college profile. Golden was just missed on multiple downfield throws last year, and the Packers didn't scheme him up as much as I think he can handle. With a better understanding of the playbook and with better chemistry with Jordan Love, it's easy to see how Golden turns into an exciting secondary target behind Christian Watson.
14.160 - RB47 Chris Rodriguez
I fully expect a three-back committee in Jacksonville. There's precedent of this with coach Liam Coen for years, and it's the best way to use the complimentary skill sets between the explosive Bhayshul Tuten, the physical C-Rod and the pass-protecting LeQuint Allen. If Tuten can be more trustworthy, then he's the guy to roster, but he wasn't trustworthy last year, and that's Rodriguez's exact calling card. This training camp, Rodriguez has been the designated short-yardage back, and in half PPR, that's the role we need to be a FLEX option. It was funny to hear Coen describe his goals from the backfield to "be efficient" and then finish his ramble by describing Rodriguez as "efficient," and I'm taking his connection with C-Rod back in his Kentucky days as a real indicator that high-value touches are coming.
If Tuten flops or misses time, I could see a Javonte Williams type of season here.
15.175 - WR63 Travis Hunter
Hunter looks jacked. It's to the point that we should absolutely believe him and the entire organization that he's ready to play tons of snaps on each side of the ball. After watching the first week of training camp, Sports Illustrated's John Shipley now believes 80% snaps on defense and up to 50% snaps of offense is possible, if not likely. Hunter is playing more boundary receiver and running more downfield routes this camp, and that's the exact role he crushed in college and for moments as a rookie. If an injury to one of the top three receivers occurred, Hunter is destined for 67% or more of offensive snaps. That'd be enough to FLEX if he's as good as I think he can be.
And it's possible all of this is underselling him. The freeness of his ADP allows us to dream big without consequence. That's the whole point of sleepers.
16.176 - RB48 Keaton Mitchell
The Mike McDaniel offense is one we want, particularly in terms of undersized, speed-based backups. Mitchell is not only an analytics darling, he's an analytics king. Mitchell is the RB1 in rush yards over expected (+47%), RB1 in EPA per carry (+0.12) and RB2 in YPC (6.3) among RBs with 100+ carries since 2023, and he seamlessly can operate the perimeter-based runs we saw out of De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert in Miami. If he can get to 8-10 touches per game, that'd be enough to consider him a starter in deeper formats. Omarion Hampton will have to flop for that to happen, but Hampton's rookie season was filled with indecisiveness in my opinion.
It's a bonus that Mitchell's training camp has been filled with more receiving work than he's ever had in the pros, but I can see it marginally carrying over to the regular season based on his college profile, where he had 22 and 27 receptions as a sophomore and junior, respectively.
Continue reading...
