- Joined
- May 8, 2002
- Posts
- 1,129,127
- Reaction score
- 59
Welcome to my first weekly in-season fantasy baseball article covering advanced stats and upcoming matchups for hitters, including potential waiver wire pickups. When considering upcoming lineup decisions, we’ll want to consider hitter skills, opposing pitcher matchups and the hitting environment.
One way to quantify opposing pitcher matchups involves examining several advanced stats.
When combining several advanced stats from the 2025 season, we weighted different metrics to create an adjusted score. Keep in mind that we’re still in the trial phase because we might be able to simplify to K-BB% or another advanced metric to identify tough or favorable upcoming matchups down the line. The lower the adjusted score indicates the hitting matchup should be more favorable against those team pitchers.
The five worst team pitchers were the Rockies, Nationals, Angels, White Sox and Cardinals in 2025, as seen below:
Worst team pitchers from 2025. (Photo by Corbin Young/Yahoo Sports)
On the flip side, the toughest opposing pitchers to face were on the Astros, Padres, Rays, Brewers and Dodgers. Most of those teams had strong advanced metrics (a medium to darker red — see chart below), besides the Phillies and their batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in 2025. The Astros face the Red Sox (3) and Athletics (3) this week. The Padres match up against the Giants (3) and Red Sox (3). Tampa Bay continues its road tour to play three at the Brewers and three against the Twins.
Besides the Brewers facing the Rays, they face the Royals for three. Meanwhile, the Dodgers face the Guardians (3) and Nationals (3).
Some pitchers have changed teams (Dylan Cease), with a few being injured like Blake Snell and Ryan Pepiot, so the 2025 data may be slightly skewed:
Best team pitchers from 2025. (Photo by Corbin Young/Yahoo Sports)
With that out of the way, let’s start off with a few hitter matchups to monitor this week. Additionally, we’ll highlight a few hitters to consider adding off the waiver wire based on their matchups, skills and playing time.
The lefty masher for the Tigers projects to face all right-handed starting pitchers in Week 2. Kerry Carpenter has been batting leadoff for the Tigers to begin the 2026 season. The Tigers’ hitters face the Diamondbacks’ (No. 25 matchup-adjusted score) and Cardinals’ pitchers (No. 26). That suggests Tigers’ hitters should feast against most of their opposing pitcher matchups.
Kerry Carpenter Barrel/PA percentage vs. RHP by season. (Photo by Corbin Young/BaseballSavant)
Most of the Diamondbacks and Cardinals pitchers don’t tend to elicit tons of whiffs, which should bode well for Carpenter. He has a 75% career contact rate, near the league average. However, Carpenter does damage with a career 12.4% barrel rate. Carpenter has hit 90% of his home runs against right-handed pitchers with a 136 wRC+ throughout his career. He should take advantage of these weaker matchups in Week 2.
The Diamondbacks project to face five out of seven right-handed pitchers in Week 2, potentially favorable for Pavin Smith (0%) and Alek Thomas (1%) as strong-side platoon options. Smith had elbow soreness and missed Opening Day, but played in the second game of the season. Historically, Smith had strong plate discipline with high contact rates (79.6% in career), but that fell to 70.9% in 2025. Nonetheless, Smith still remains an on-base monster with a career 11% walk rate and .360 OBP in 2025.
Most of the Braves’ lineup is steady. We don’t have a large enough sample to consider Mike Yastrzemski (4%) or Dominic Smith (0%) to stream them against right-handed pitchers. The Braves hitters project to face five out of seven right-handed pitchers in Week 2. There’s a chance Smith loses playing time (if he had it at all) as a strong-side platoon if the Braves give Drake Baldwin days off to play DH. But still, Smith and Yastrzemski could be deep-league options to stream in Week 2.
Mets hitters project to face six out of seven right-handed pitchers in Week 2, including some volatile options later in the week like Robbie Ray, Tyler Mahle, Adrian Houser and Landon Roupp. Earlier in the week, the Mets take on the Cardinals — who have one of the worst starting rotations — and will face Kyle Leahy, Andre Pallante and Matthew Liberatore.
The Cardinals pitch to contact, ranking second in contact rate. Meanwhile, the Mets will likely avoid Logan Webb, yet Giants’ pitchers are allowing the 13th-highest contact rate in 2025. That said, Mets’ hitters who could benefit include Brett Baty (13%) and Carson Benge (39%), who project as strong-side platoon options. Baty showed better bat speed (74.9 mph) and a high-end fast swing rate (63.6%), aligning with a career-high barrel rate (12.8%). We could see Baty hit a couple of home runs in Week 2.
Brett Baty's bat speed data. (Photo by Corbin Young/Yahoo Sports)
Benge already teased us with one barrel, one home run and a stolen base on Opening Day. In the minors in 2025, Benge boasted a 92.1 mph average exit velocity and 10.7% barrel per plate appearance rate. Benge hit the ball hard while making contact (80.9%) at an above-average rate.
Benge has been one of the top adds in Yahoo leagues after his Opening Day performance. Add and stream him in medium and deep formats, but he may earn more relevance in shallower leagues.
Currently, the Giants don’t have any projected platoons and they used the same lineup for most of the first week. There’s deep-league appeal for Jung Hoo Lee (16%), Harrison Bader (5%) and Casey Schmitt (1%), especially considering the early week matchups against Germán Márquez, Walker Buehler and Nick Pivetta. Márquez had buzzy Spring Training data with a 21.6% K-BB%, but there’s still some volatility in the profile. Maybe there will be more exciting options on the Giants besides the top half of their lineup, but volume should be favorable for them in Week 2. Schmitt could be a deep-league addition for volume.
Theoretically, Caleb Durbin faces two of the most challenging pitcher matchups based on the 2025 data, but the Padres (Cease) and Astros (Framber Valdez) lost two significant pieces of their rotations. That’s who the Red Sox will face in Week 2 (3 at HOU, 3 vs. SD). Strong plate discipline from Durbin with a career 88.2% contact rate gives him a high floor, though power remains a major question mark (4% barrel rate, 67.9 mph bat speed).
Durbin might be more of a compiler who projects for double-digit home runs and potentially 20 stolen bases. He lacks the upside to be a weekly winner in shallower formats, but is set to make an impact this week.
One of my bold predictions involved Nolan Schanuel hitting 20 home runs. That might not seem like a high amount, but Schanuel hasn’t hit more than 15 since his final collegiate season in 2023 with 19 at Florida Atlantic University. We saw Schanuel show a slight increase in bat speed from 65.2 mph in 2024 to 67.5 mph in 2025. On pulled batted balls, Schanuel had a 68.9 mph bat speed and 6.8% barrel per plate appearance rate in 2025, with a notable jump in pulled bat speed from 2024 (66.8 mph).
Nolan Schanuel average bat speed by season. (Photo by Corbin Young/BaseballSavant)
We could see Schanuel pull the ball more and take a slight step forward in bat speed. However, it’s worth highlighting that Schanuel faces two of the tougher pitching matchups against the Cubs (3 at CHC) and Mariners (3 vs. SEA) in Week 2. Both the Cubs (No. 12) and Mariners (No. 8) ranked in the top 12 in team pitcher-adjusted score. Still, it’s hard to ignore Schanuel, who hits toward the top of the Angels lineup every day, especially at a top-heavy first base position.
The White Sox face the Marlins (3 at MIA) and Blue Jays (3 vs. TOR) in Week 2. That includes Chris Paddack, Janson Junk and Sandy Alcantara for the Marlins, none of whom currently scare us as fantasy managers. The Blue Jays project to have Cease, Eric Lauer and Cody Ponce later in the week against the White Sox hitters, so it might be a mixed bag, especially if Ponce surpasses the sleeper hype.
Chase Meidroth has been a plate discipline machine (88.4% contact rate) in 2025 and throughout the minor leagues. Meidroth had a brutal 1.6% barrel rate and 67.4 mph bat speed in 2025. If we’re investing in a hitter that plays in one of the worst lineups, they should be toward the top, with Meidroth serving as the leadoff hitter. Target Meidroth for batting average with the additional chances for runs and stolen bases.
Dominic Canzone was one of a few hitters who hit two home runs on Opening Day. The Mariners faced the Guardians, who projected to have three out of four starting pitchers throwing from the right side, making Canzone a strong-side platoon option. They will face the Yankees (3 vs. NYY) and Angels (3 at LAA) in Week 2, including three lefties in six games.
We might see Canzone be one of the top waiver-wire additions turn into one of the most dropped players after Week 2 if the hot start doesn’t continue.
Dominic Canzone's 15-game rolling average. (Photo by Corbin Young/FanGraphs)
Canzone pulled the ball more (40.1%) in 2025 compared to 2024 (35%). That coincided with improved barrel rates (14.5% vs. 11.1%) and bat speed (74.5 mph vs. 73.1 mph) over the past two seasons. For context, Canzone’s pulled bat speed increased to 74.5 mph (2025) compared to 72.8 mph (2024) with the barrel rate jumping to 17.2% (2025) from 12.1% (2024). He remains a fan favorite and a consistent strong-side platoon option toward the bottom third of the Mariners’ lineup. As such, Canzone might be more of a long-term addition instead of a strong Week 2 option.
As a former Nationals’ first-round pick, Brady House spent four seasons in the minors before logging 274 major league plate appearances in 2025. House projects to play every day as the Nationals’ third baseman, but they face the Phillies (3 at PHI) and Dodgers (3 vs. LAD), meaning he potentially faces two of the better starting rotations. Still, House may find success against Taijuan Walker, Andrew Painter and Roki Sasaki, the latter of whom we have concerns about heading into the 2026 season based on skills and track record.
Brady House's 5-game rolling average. (Photo by Corbin Young/FanGraphs)
Unfortunately, House struggles with plate discipline, evidenced by a 71.3% contact rate in 2025, similar to his minor league sample (72-73%). House’s launch angle can be an issue with a 47.3% groundball rate, negatively impacting his 4.3% barrel rate. That aligned with House’s mediocre 93.7 mph average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (FB/LD), ranking 162nd out of 327 qualified hitters (150 batted ball events).
The projections show House having a season-long line similar to Jake Cronenworth without the positional flexibility to provide a reasonable expectation in 2026. Unless House shows significant gains in power, he might be a noisy hitter streamer to add, though every day playing in deeper leagues can be valuable.
Continue reading...
One way to quantify opposing pitcher matchups involves examining several advanced stats.
When combining several advanced stats from the 2025 season, we weighted different metrics to create an adjusted score. Keep in mind that we’re still in the trial phase because we might be able to simplify to K-BB% or another advanced metric to identify tough or favorable upcoming matchups down the line. The lower the adjusted score indicates the hitting matchup should be more favorable against those team pitchers.
The five worst team pitchers were the Rockies, Nationals, Angels, White Sox and Cardinals in 2025, as seen below:
You must be registered for see images attach
Worst team pitchers from 2025. (Photo by Corbin Young/Yahoo Sports)
On the flip side, the toughest opposing pitchers to face were on the Astros, Padres, Rays, Brewers and Dodgers. Most of those teams had strong advanced metrics (a medium to darker red — see chart below), besides the Phillies and their batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in 2025. The Astros face the Red Sox (3) and Athletics (3) this week. The Padres match up against the Giants (3) and Red Sox (3). Tampa Bay continues its road tour to play three at the Brewers and three against the Twins.
Besides the Brewers facing the Rays, they face the Royals for three. Meanwhile, the Dodgers face the Guardians (3) and Nationals (3).
Some pitchers have changed teams (Dylan Cease), with a few being injured like Blake Snell and Ryan Pepiot, so the 2025 data may be slightly skewed:
You must be registered for see images attach
Best team pitchers from 2025. (Photo by Corbin Young/Yahoo Sports)
With that out of the way, let’s start off with a few hitter matchups to monitor this week. Additionally, we’ll highlight a few hitters to consider adding off the waiver wire based on their matchups, skills and playing time.
Three Hitter Matchups to Monitor
Kerry Carpenter (65% rostered) vs. ARI (3) and STL (3)
The lefty masher for the Tigers projects to face all right-handed starting pitchers in Week 2. Kerry Carpenter has been batting leadoff for the Tigers to begin the 2026 season. The Tigers’ hitters face the Diamondbacks’ (No. 25 matchup-adjusted score) and Cardinals’ pitchers (No. 26). That suggests Tigers’ hitters should feast against most of their opposing pitcher matchups.
You must be registered for see images attach
Kerry Carpenter Barrel/PA percentage vs. RHP by season. (Photo by Corbin Young/BaseballSavant)
Most of the Diamondbacks and Cardinals pitchers don’t tend to elicit tons of whiffs, which should bode well for Carpenter. He has a 75% career contact rate, near the league average. However, Carpenter does damage with a career 12.4% barrel rate. Carpenter has hit 90% of his home runs against right-handed pitchers with a 136 wRC+ throughout his career. He should take advantage of these weaker matchups in Week 2.
Diamondbacks (3 vs. DET, 4 vs. ATL) Playing 7 Games, and Braves (3 vs. ATH, 4 at ARI) Playing 7 Games
The Diamondbacks project to face five out of seven right-handed pitchers in Week 2, potentially favorable for Pavin Smith (0%) and Alek Thomas (1%) as strong-side platoon options. Smith had elbow soreness and missed Opening Day, but played in the second game of the season. Historically, Smith had strong plate discipline with high contact rates (79.6% in career), but that fell to 70.9% in 2025. Nonetheless, Smith still remains an on-base monster with a career 11% walk rate and .360 OBP in 2025.
Most of the Braves’ lineup is steady. We don’t have a large enough sample to consider Mike Yastrzemski (4%) or Dominic Smith (0%) to stream them against right-handed pitchers. The Braves hitters project to face five out of seven right-handed pitchers in Week 2. There’s a chance Smith loses playing time (if he had it at all) as a strong-side platoon if the Braves give Drake Baldwin days off to play DH. But still, Smith and Yastrzemski could be deep-league options to stream in Week 2.
Mets (3 at STL, 4 at SF) Playing 7 Games, and Giants (3 at SD, 4 vs. NYM) Playing 7 Games
Mets hitters project to face six out of seven right-handed pitchers in Week 2, including some volatile options later in the week like Robbie Ray, Tyler Mahle, Adrian Houser and Landon Roupp. Earlier in the week, the Mets take on the Cardinals — who have one of the worst starting rotations — and will face Kyle Leahy, Andre Pallante and Matthew Liberatore.
The Cardinals pitch to contact, ranking second in contact rate. Meanwhile, the Mets will likely avoid Logan Webb, yet Giants’ pitchers are allowing the 13th-highest contact rate in 2025. That said, Mets’ hitters who could benefit include Brett Baty (13%) and Carson Benge (39%), who project as strong-side platoon options. Baty showed better bat speed (74.9 mph) and a high-end fast swing rate (63.6%), aligning with a career-high barrel rate (12.8%). We could see Baty hit a couple of home runs in Week 2.
You must be registered for see images attach
Brett Baty's bat speed data. (Photo by Corbin Young/Yahoo Sports)
Benge already teased us with one barrel, one home run and a stolen base on Opening Day. In the minors in 2025, Benge boasted a 92.1 mph average exit velocity and 10.7% barrel per plate appearance rate. Benge hit the ball hard while making contact (80.9%) at an above-average rate.
Benge has been one of the top adds in Yahoo leagues after his Opening Day performance. Add and stream him in medium and deep formats, but he may earn more relevance in shallower leagues.
Currently, the Giants don’t have any projected platoons and they used the same lineup for most of the first week. There’s deep-league appeal for Jung Hoo Lee (16%), Harrison Bader (5%) and Casey Schmitt (1%), especially considering the early week matchups against Germán Márquez, Walker Buehler and Nick Pivetta. Márquez had buzzy Spring Training data with a 21.6% K-BB%, but there’s still some volatility in the profile. Maybe there will be more exciting options on the Giants besides the top half of their lineup, but volume should be favorable for them in Week 2. Schmitt could be a deep-league addition for volume.
Hitter Waiver Wire Pickups
Caleb Durbin, 2B/3B, BOS (34% rostered)
Theoretically, Caleb Durbin faces two of the most challenging pitcher matchups based on the 2025 data, but the Padres (Cease) and Astros (Framber Valdez) lost two significant pieces of their rotations. That’s who the Red Sox will face in Week 2 (3 at HOU, 3 vs. SD). Strong plate discipline from Durbin with a career 88.2% contact rate gives him a high floor, though power remains a major question mark (4% barrel rate, 67.9 mph bat speed).
Durbin might be more of a compiler who projects for double-digit home runs and potentially 20 stolen bases. He lacks the upside to be a weekly winner in shallower formats, but is set to make an impact this week.
Nolan Schanuel, 1B, LAA (21%)
One of my bold predictions involved Nolan Schanuel hitting 20 home runs. That might not seem like a high amount, but Schanuel hasn’t hit more than 15 since his final collegiate season in 2023 with 19 at Florida Atlantic University. We saw Schanuel show a slight increase in bat speed from 65.2 mph in 2024 to 67.5 mph in 2025. On pulled batted balls, Schanuel had a 68.9 mph bat speed and 6.8% barrel per plate appearance rate in 2025, with a notable jump in pulled bat speed from 2024 (66.8 mph).
You must be registered for see images attach
Nolan Schanuel average bat speed by season. (Photo by Corbin Young/BaseballSavant)
We could see Schanuel pull the ball more and take a slight step forward in bat speed. However, it’s worth highlighting that Schanuel faces two of the tougher pitching matchups against the Cubs (3 at CHC) and Mariners (3 vs. SEA) in Week 2. Both the Cubs (No. 12) and Mariners (No. 8) ranked in the top 12 in team pitcher-adjusted score. Still, it’s hard to ignore Schanuel, who hits toward the top of the Angels lineup every day, especially at a top-heavy first base position.
Chase Meidroth, 2B/3B/SS, CHW (14%)
The White Sox face the Marlins (3 at MIA) and Blue Jays (3 vs. TOR) in Week 2. That includes Chris Paddack, Janson Junk and Sandy Alcantara for the Marlins, none of whom currently scare us as fantasy managers. The Blue Jays project to have Cease, Eric Lauer and Cody Ponce later in the week against the White Sox hitters, so it might be a mixed bag, especially if Ponce surpasses the sleeper hype.
Chase Meidroth has been a plate discipline machine (88.4% contact rate) in 2025 and throughout the minor leagues. Meidroth had a brutal 1.6% barrel rate and 67.4 mph bat speed in 2025. If we’re investing in a hitter that plays in one of the worst lineups, they should be toward the top, with Meidroth serving as the leadoff hitter. Target Meidroth for batting average with the additional chances for runs and stolen bases.
Dominic Canzone, OF, SEA (16%)
Dominic Canzone was one of a few hitters who hit two home runs on Opening Day. The Mariners faced the Guardians, who projected to have three out of four starting pitchers throwing from the right side, making Canzone a strong-side platoon option. They will face the Yankees (3 vs. NYY) and Angels (3 at LAA) in Week 2, including three lefties in six games.
We might see Canzone be one of the top waiver-wire additions turn into one of the most dropped players after Week 2 if the hot start doesn’t continue.
You must be registered for see images attach
Dominic Canzone's 15-game rolling average. (Photo by Corbin Young/FanGraphs)
Canzone pulled the ball more (40.1%) in 2025 compared to 2024 (35%). That coincided with improved barrel rates (14.5% vs. 11.1%) and bat speed (74.5 mph vs. 73.1 mph) over the past two seasons. For context, Canzone’s pulled bat speed increased to 74.5 mph (2025) compared to 72.8 mph (2024) with the barrel rate jumping to 17.2% (2025) from 12.1% (2024). He remains a fan favorite and a consistent strong-side platoon option toward the bottom third of the Mariners’ lineup. As such, Canzone might be more of a long-term addition instead of a strong Week 2 option.
Deep Leagues: Brady House, 3B, WSH (6%)
As a former Nationals’ first-round pick, Brady House spent four seasons in the minors before logging 274 major league plate appearances in 2025. House projects to play every day as the Nationals’ third baseman, but they face the Phillies (3 at PHI) and Dodgers (3 vs. LAD), meaning he potentially faces two of the better starting rotations. Still, House may find success against Taijuan Walker, Andrew Painter and Roki Sasaki, the latter of whom we have concerns about heading into the 2026 season based on skills and track record.
You must be registered for see images attach
Brady House's 5-game rolling average. (Photo by Corbin Young/FanGraphs)
Unfortunately, House struggles with plate discipline, evidenced by a 71.3% contact rate in 2025, similar to his minor league sample (72-73%). House’s launch angle can be an issue with a 47.3% groundball rate, negatively impacting his 4.3% barrel rate. That aligned with House’s mediocre 93.7 mph average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (FB/LD), ranking 162nd out of 327 qualified hitters (150 batted ball events).
The projections show House having a season-long line similar to Jake Cronenworth without the positional flexibility to provide a reasonable expectation in 2026. Unless House shows significant gains in power, he might be a noisy hitter streamer to add, though every day playing in deeper leagues can be valuable.
Continue reading...
