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Nov 22, 2025; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies head coach James Franklin on the sidelines before the start of the game against the Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-Imagn Images | Neville E. Guard-Imagn Images
You’re looking for something to fill your offseason time, ProveIt is here with an update you don’t care about on a topic you hate… without rumors, inside sources, or a YouTube podcast from my spare bedroom!
Hyphen-free timeline in start of football seasons which is the only timeline that matters in discussion conference realignment:
2025 through 2030: ACC exit fee starts at $165 million, dropping $18 million a year to $75 million in 2030, then holding at $75 million until the end of their broadcast contract.
2029: Last year of the current B1G broadcast contract
2029: VT completes university subsidies to boost AD spending
2029: The B1G signs their new broadcast contract
2030: ACC exit fee bottoms out coinciding with the 1st season of…
2030: B1G starts new broadcast contract
2030: Last year of the current B12 contract, signs their new contract
2031: B12 starts their new broadcast contract
2033: Last year of the current SEC contract, signs their new contract
2034: SEC starts their new broadcast contract
2035: Last year of the current ACC contract, signs their new contract
2036: ACC starts their new broadcast contract
It’s not a coincidence.
The current B1G contract was in place in 2022, in 2025 the ACC agreed to a new exit fee structure that bottoms out just as the B1G starts their new contract.
I suspect this was an easy sell to both sides in negotiations: The ACC members looking to lower the fee didn’t care about the exit fee after the new B1G contract, it benefits them for the exit fee to be high after this in case they get rejected by the B1G, if they go to the SEC the SEC will probably ask them to wait for the new SEC contract. The rest of the ACC still benefits from this high fee in dissuading members from considering the B12, delaying movement to the SEC, and money flowing into their pockets.
The B1G criteria
AAU affiliation isn’t a requirement: Delany said Nebraska would have been invited without being in the AAU, a B1G member voted to boot Nebraska from the AAU, the B1G at the time wanted to make the AAU a government lobbying group for academics but the AAU refused to follow suit by expanding. This came about when Delany asked what programs he should pursue for expansion ahead of adding Nebraska, he was told no “football factories,” they have to show a priority for academic achievement (you’re out Louisville), with AAU affiliation as an example.
There is the non-descript cultural fit, which along with academics may have more to do with how the University Presidents and Chancellors view each other than the student and fan base.
Otherwise it’s all about FB broadcast revenue (even for you Duke), hoopheads will have to cope and deal.
We know the B1G’s process.
The B1G doesn’t formally recruit programs for legal reasons. They might use a 3rd party for informal inquiries and talks (ND, Gordon Gee and Texas). They might string along a team for a long time (like Rutgers).
Most of the time the B1G waits for the program to inquire (PSU, Nebraska, Maryland, USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington), performs a feasibility study, then moves to the cloak and dagger stage with tight lipped closed door meetings, meetings in remote undisclosed locations where reps travel separately and incognito, etc.
The broadcast contract drives expansion, but broadcasters have to keep some distance for legal reasons. I believe their involvement is primarily in guiding the B1G what to look at in the feasibility study stage and possibly providing raw data (with an occasional nudge and feedback).
B1G expansion costs are minimal when programs are added at the time of a new broadcast contract. Expect the existing B1G members to cover exit fees for new members, then recover by decreasing shared revenue to what they would receive if they remained in the ACC for their 1st 3 or 4 years (until their exit fee is paid up).
For each of the existing 18 B1G members, this would be a 1 time $4.2 million decrease in shared revenue for each ACC program added, with higher payouts from the conference in later years, at a time when members will be getting a shared revenue boost from a new broadcast contract.
It isn’t about the ACC exit fee, in 2024-2025:
The B1G full share conference shared revenue ranged from $76.01 million to $91.57 million, averaging $79.9 million.
The ACC highest payout was $55.1 million to Clemson, $21 million less than the LOWEST full share B1G member received.
The difference in between the B1G lowest and the ACC highest payout is more than the $18 million yearly decrease in the ACC exit fee. The ACC exit fee is not the determining factor in the timeline.
The timeline will center on the next B1G broadcast contract.
The B1G will want additions on board before inking a new contract like was done with USC-UCLA. Neither the B1G nor the new programs want to expand mid-contract like Oregon and Washington.
The B1G F’ed up by asking Oregon and Washington to wait until 2031, don’t expect this to happen again. Inquiries, informal discussions, and feasibility studies have likely already taken place for most ACC programs, the serious talks with candidate programs will be in 2028 and early 2029 as rumors fly, with formal announcements and inking occurring in mid-2029.
I don’t think the B1G is locked into an even number of members.
With all the issues of expansion, if 1 of 19+ members were to play 1 more or less conference game a year, or a program gets to choose about once every 2 decades between an additional OOC or home conference game, I don’t think it’s a problem for anyone.
There may be an inventory limit.
For example, if the B1G increased to 22 teams averaging 7 home games a year, that’s a whopping 154 games a year. Spread out over 15 weeks, it averages a manageable 10 or 11 games a week, but in conference bye weeks it would be as low as 8 and into the upper teens in OOC weeks – not the most lucrative structure.
Fox-CBS-NBC will be all for poaching the rights to the top ACC brands from ESPN, but to fully capitalize the B1G needs to find a way to spread out the inventory more evenly – OOC body bag games during conference season, more weekday games, late night weekend time slot, etc.
Expanding the number of conference games should be off the table as it could be counter-productive if members drop their quality OOC game which typically have higher ratings.
The easiest solution for the B1G would be to sell low tier time slots to an additional carrier, but I don’t know if any can afford the bidding price unless ESPN returns to the table – with the better ACC brands the B1G could typically offer games with at least 1 decent brand deep into their tier selections.
While I don’t think it’s the case, the B1G may not even have all 3 of its current partners returning – NBC’s rollercoaster B1G ratings and selling its rights to the B1G CCG could be a red flag that they plan to exit after the current deal expires, leaving the B1G scrambling to find a new broadcast partner to fill the gap, or trying to convince Fox-CBS to increase the number of games they buy.
The Candidates list is short.
Using the last time I did a deeper dive, the long term B1G average viewership would be somewhere above the Nebraska-Iowa-Sparty level of interest, so **** about programs like GT, Pitt, NC State, etc. – you need to be higher up to warrant an invite.
It won’t be a program from the B12 or G6, if the B1G-SEC was interested in any of these programs they would have been added already. I don’t think that any conference would decline a request from the academies, but the academies aren’t going to ask to join the B1G-SEC making it a moot point.
The difference in shared revenue isn’t enough for the B1G to poach the SEC… yet.
ND fans want to remain independent in FB. ND has enough revenue to remain independent. ND will always find a conference for an ACC-like scheduling agreement. ND will remain independent.
This leaves the ACC: FSU, Miami, and Clemson are obvious. I had NC and VT as marginal, but with more recent news, I now have them as solid candidates. With the exception of maybe Clemson, I don’t think any of these would be disqualified from B1G consideration for academics or culture. See GT-Pitt-NC State, Louisville, and Duke comments above for any other ACC members. Poaching the ACC in 2029 will bring an end to B1G expansion.
VT AD spending increase is not getting nearly enough scrutiny.
In 2024-2025 VT’s AD revenue was $161.2 million. In 2025 VT announced they were increasing the AD budget annually to $212.1 million by 2028-2029, a 31% $51 million increase in 4 years.
I don’t think this is a coincidence – 2029 is when candidates whose inquiries to join the B1G will become known, a year ahead of the next broadcast contract. This feels like a little like a Rutgers trajectory where the B1G instructed Rutgers on what they needed to do to get an invite, except with VT the timing is known.
VT’s funding formally includes over $21 million increase in student fees, over $48 million from the university, and a buried additional $39.6 million from the university under the name “bridge funding,” bringing the university total contribution to about $88 million, with the claim the AD can sustain this level of income without the University contribution at the end of 4 years from growth – that’s a lot of growth in 4 years.
Initially this was thought to be a flyer to garner a B1G invite, but I have a hard time believing the university would gamble $88 million on achieving this level of growth, unless they have some additional assurances to believe they will get a huge boost in conference shared revenue, a boost that can only realistically be provided by the bold claim…
VT is already set to join the B1G for the 2030 season. Hoopheads can feel confident that if VT is on their way to the B1G, so is NC. The poaching of the ACC in 2029 will end B1G expansion unless ND becomes interested in joining a conference, or the shared revenue differential becomes substantial enough for the B1G to poach the SEC.
The B12 won’t be looking to expand. Their contract expires just 1 year behind the B1G. Their shared revenue lags the ACC now but should move about even, they can’t afford to poach the ACC. ESPN doesn’t want to pay for the same ACC program rights twice, they will get the same rights cheaper leaving the programs in a depleted ACC. The B12 is done with expansion unless their new contract is only 5 years long to expire with the ACC, but ESPN won’t leave this door open, and the B12 doesn’t have enough broadcast suitors to force the issue – ESPN wants the rights to both the ACC and B12 at the cheapest cost.
ESPN/SEC sidelined. ESPN is already in a financial bind, paying steep increases to renew other broadcast rights they currently own, and giving up rights as cord cutting continues. To poach the better ACC FB brands, ESPN would have to increase the payments for program rights they already own through the ACC, with an offer that still lags behind what the B1G will offer.
My expectation is the SEC will inform candidate programs if they will be added, they might even announce and ink the deals, but ask candidates to wait until the new contract before changing conferences, bringing an end to SEC expansion in 2033.
The remaining ACC programs won’t have any place better to move to (unless ESPN leaves the door open for movement to the B12). Their new identity will be a hoops conference that plays football well above the G6 level, but notably behind the B12. With this new identity they might add a few programs known for hoops that also play FBS FB outside the B1G-SEC-B12 (we see you UConn). 2035 will mark the end of ACC expansion.
Don’t expect federal legislation to bring an end to expansion. They might add a meaningless restriction like prohibiting conferences from merging (forget the B1G and SEC merging, they can barely reach a scheduling agreement), but there are more than enough reps in the House and Senate from the footprint of the B1G-SEC, programs hoping to join the B1G-SEC, and other programs hoping to step up in conference affiliation, to get this restriction stripped from the bill.
This long winding path of P5 expansion that exploded in 2011 with the PAC’s attempt to gut the B12, is winding down with the B1G and SEC forming the P2 because they had more to offer, the B12 surviving with a lot of hustle, while the PAC and ACC were ultimately done in by agreeing to terrible broadcast contracts.
Questions? Critiques? Thoughts? Let us know in the comments. Thanks to ProveIt, as ever, for sending this and for his patience as I rediscovered and uploaded it.
If YOU would ever like to write for OTE—whether irregularly or as one of our irregulars—drop me a line at minnesotawildcat [at] gmail [dot] com. We’d be happy to add your thoughts to the conversation. —MNW
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