ESPN predicts the odds of Alabama losing to Hofstra in NCAA Tournament

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The stage is set for Alabama basketball's sixth straight NCAA Tournament appearance. The Crimson Tide are the No. 4 seed in the Midwest Region and will face the Hofstra Pride Friday afternoon at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa.

Alabama (23-9 overall), ranked No. 18 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll and AP Top 25 poll, enters the tournament having won nine of its last 11 games. The Tide suffered an 80-79 loss to the Ole Miss Rebels at the SEC Tournament in Nashville on Friday despite a game-high 28 points from Labaron Philon.

Alabama leads the nation in scoring with an average of 91.7 points per game. The Crimson Tide's offense also rates third nationally in KenPom's efficiency ratings, trailing only Purdue and Illinois. Philon's 21.7 points per game leads Alabama scorers, followed by Aden Holloway's 16.8.

Holloway was arrested early Monday morning in Tuscaloosa County on a felony drug charge and has been suspended from the team. Nate Oats said during his weekly appearance on "Hey Coach" that the Crimson Tide were preparing to play without their second-leading scorer. After Holloway, Latrell Wrightsell averages almost 13 points a night and has four games this season with 20 or more points.

As for Hofstra (24-10), the Pride are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2001. Hofstra won the Coastal Athletic Association (CAA) tournament after defeating Monmouth in the championship game. Cruz Davis leads Hofstra in scoring with 20.2 points per game while Preston Edmead averages 16. The Pride average 75.6 points per game and allow 66.

Alabama hasn't lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since falling to Notre Dame in March 2022. Will the Crimson Tide make it four straight years with at least one win in March Madness?


ESPN's Jay Bilas makes prediction for Alabama in NCAA Tournament

Petre Thomas, Petre Thomas-Imagn Images https://t.co/ndIO0d1PUIpic.twitter.com/2TIf3R7dkL

— Roll Tide Wire (@RollTideWire) March 18, 2026

Will Alabama beat Hofstra to avoid NCAA Tournament upset?​


Ahead of Alabama-Hofstra, ESPN Analytics gave its odds for Friday's game.

ESPN's matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college basketball power index (BPI) and other variables, gives Alabama a 90% chance to win and Hofstra a 10% chance.

Alabama is 15th nationally in ESPN's BPI, down one spot from before last week's upset loss to Ole Miss. The Tide have a 17.9 overall rating, down slightly from 18.1 last week. The metrics give Alabama a 12.3 rating on offense, which is No. 4 nationally, and a 5.5 rating on defense that rates 49th.

What is ESPN College Basketball Power Index (BPI)?​


ESPN explains of its basketball power index and game predictions:

"The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily."

Start time, TV channel, announcers for Alabama vs Hofstra basketball​



TV channel, start time for Alabama vs. Hofstra in NCAA Tournament

Rick Osentoski, Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images https://t.co/9BvVHIDz8opic.twitter.com/UKKLwYs6S8

— Roll Tide Wire (@RollTideWire) March 17, 2026

Tipoff for Alabama-Hofstra is 2:15 p.m. CT Friday at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida. Tom McCarthy will have the play-by-play call of the game with Candace Parker and Dan Bonner as analysts. AJ Ross will report from the sidelines. The game will be televised on truTV.

The national radio feed of the game can be heard on Westwood One and on SiriusXM channel 202.

Here's a game by game look at Alabama's 2025-26 men's basketball schedule.

  • Nov. 3: vs. North Dakota (W, 91-62)
  • Nov. 8: at St. John's (W, 103-96)
  • Nov. 13: vs. Purdue (L, 87-80)
  • Nov. 19: vs. Illinois (W, 90-86)
  • Nov. 24: vs. Gonzaga (L, 95-85)
  • Nov. 25: vs. UNLV (W, 115-76)
  • Nov. 26: vs. Maryland (W, 105-72)
  • Dec. 3: vs. Clemson (W, 90-84)
  • Dec. 7: vs. UTSA (W, 97-55)
  • Dec. 13: vs. Arizona (L, 96-75)
  • Dec. 17: vs. South Florida (W, 104-93)
  • Dec. 21: vs. Kennesaw State (W, 92-81)
  • Dec. 29: vs. Yale (W, 102-78)
  • Jan. 3: vs. Kentucky (W, 89-74)
  • Jan. 7: at Vanderbilt (L, 96-90)
  • Jan. 10: vs. Texas (L, 92-88)
  • Jan. 13: at Mississippi State (W, 97-82)
  • Jan. 17: at Oklahoma (W, 83-81)
  • Jan. 24: vs. Tennessee (L, 79-73)
  • Jan. 27: vs. Missouri (W, 90-64)
  • Feb. 1: at Florida (L, 100-77)
  • Feb. 4: vs. Texas A&M (W, 100-97)
  • Feb. 7: at Auburn (W, 96-92)
  • Feb. 11: at Ole Miss (W, 93-74)
  • Feb. 14: vs. South Carolina (W, 89-75)
  • Feb. 18: vs. Arkansas (W, 117-115, 2OT)
  • Feb. 21: at LSU (W, 90-83)
  • Feb. 25: vs. Mississippi State (W, 100-75)
  • Feb. 28: at Tennessee (W, 71-69)
  • March 3: at Georgia (L, 98-88)
  • March 7: vs. Auburn (W, 96-84)

SEC Tournament

  • March 13: vs. Ole Miss (L, 80-79)

NCAA Tournament

  • March 21: vs. Hofstra, 2:15 p.m., truTV

Follow us at @RollTideWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook, for ongoing coverage of Alabama Crimson Tide news, notes and opinions.

This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: Alabama basketball odds of beating Hofstra in NCAA Tournament

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