ESPN predicts the winner of Alabama vs Texas Tech in NCAA Tournament

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After a pair of first-round matchups that went chalk in the Midwest Region, the No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide will face the No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament in a late tipoff Sunday night in Tampa.

Alabama (24-9), ranked No. 18 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll and AP Top 25 poll, overcame a brief 10-point deficit in the first half against No. 13 seed Hofstra. The Crimson Tide used a 19-7 run in the closing eight minutes of the first half and opened the second period with a 7-0 burst.

The Tide ended the game with a 17-4 run over the final 4:14. Labaron Philon was the catalyst for Alabama again, scoring 21 of his 29 points in the second half. He added eight rebounds and seven assists.

Aiden Sherrell had 15 points and 15 rebounds for a double-double, and Latrell Wrightsell and Amari Allen both finished with 11 points. Taylor Bol Bowen gave Alabama 15 points off the bench in 21 minutes.

Texas Tech (23-10) turned a close game against Akron at halftime into a second-half rout. Jaylen Petty scored 24 points and was one of five players to finish in double figures in the Red Raiders' 91-71 first-round win. Christian Anderson added 18 for Texas Tech, which has been without All-American JT Toppin (torn ACL) since February.

Alabama is making its fifth appearance in the second round of the NCAA Tournament under coach Nate Oats. The Crimson Tide have never lost in the round of 32 under Oats.

Will Alabama advance to a fifth Sweet 16 appearance in six years?

What to know about Texas Tech entering NCAA Tournament second round

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— Roll Tide Wire (@RollTideWire) March 21, 2026

Will Alabama beat Texas Tech in NCAA Tournament showdown?​

Ahead of Alabama-Texas Tech, ESPN analytics gave its odds for Sunday's game.

ESPN's matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college basketball power index (BPI) and other variables, gives Alabama a 54.2% chance to win and Texas Tech a 45.8% chance.

Alabama is 16th nationally in ESPN's BPI. The Tide have an overall rating of 18. The metrics give Alabama a 12.4 rating on offense, which is No. 4 nationally, and a 5.5 rating on defense that's 51st nationally.

Texas Tech is No. 19 in BPI. The Red Raiders have a 16.8 overall rating. The metrics give coach Grant McCasland's team a 10.3 rating on offense, which is No. 14 nationally, and a 6.6 rating on defense that's 31st.

What is ESPN College Basketball Power Index (BPI)?​

ESPN explains of its basketball power index and game predictions:

"The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily."

Start time, TV channel, announcers for Alabama vs. Texas Tech basketball​

Where to watch Alabama basketball vs Texas Tech today: Time, TV info

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— Roll Tide Wire (@RollTideWire) March 22, 2026

Tipoff for Alabama-Texas Tech is 8:45 p.m. CT Sunday at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida. Tom McCarthy will have the play-by-play call of the game with Candace Parker and Dan Bonner as analysts. AJ Ross will report from the sidelines. The game will be televised on TBS.

The Crimson Tide Sports Radio Network feed of the game, featuring Alabama play-by-play voice Chris Stewart and analyst Bryan Passink, can be heard on The Varsity app. Additionally, the national radio call of Alabama-Texas Tech can be heard on Westwood One, as well as SiriusXM channel 202.

Alabama basketball 2025-2026 schedule, results​

Here's a game by game look at Alabama's 2025-26 men's basketball schedule.

• Nov. 3: vs. North Dakota (W, 91-62)
• Nov. 8: at St. John's (W, 103-96)
• Nov. 13: vs. Purdue (L, 87-80)
• Nov. 19: vs. Illinois (W, 90-86)
• Nov. 24: vs. Gonzaga (L, 95-85)
• Nov. 25: vs. UNLV (W, 115-76)
• Nov. 26: vs. Maryland (W, 105-72)
• Dec. 3: vs. Clemson (W, 90-84)
• Dec. 7: vs. UTSA (W, 97-55)
• Dec. 13: vs. Arizona (L, 96-75)
• Dec. 17: vs. South Florida (W, 104-93)
• Dec. 21: vs. Kennesaw State (W, 92-81)
• Dec. 29: vs. Yale (W, 102-78)
• Jan. 3: vs. Kentucky (W, 89-74)
• Jan. 7: at Vanderbilt (L, 96-90)
• Jan. 10: vs. Texas (L, 92-88)
• Jan. 13: at Mississippi State (W, 97-82)
• Jan. 17: at Oklahoma (W, 83-81)
• Jan. 24: vs. Tennessee (L, 79-73)
• Jan. 27: vs. Missouri (W, 90-64)
• Feb. 1: at Florida (L, 100-77)
• Feb. 4: vs. Texas A&M (W, 100-97)
• Feb. 7: at Auburn (W, 96-92)
• Feb. 11: at Ole Miss (W, 93-74)
• Feb. 14: vs. South Carolina (W, 89-75)
• Feb. 18: vs. Arkansas (W, 117-115, 2OT)
• Feb. 21: at LSU (W, 90-83)
• Feb. 25: vs. Mississippi State (W, 100-75)
• Feb. 28: at Tennessee (W, 71-69)
• March 3: at Georgia (L, 98-88)
• March 7: vs. Auburn (W, 96-84)

SEC Tournament

• March 13: vs. Ole Miss (L, 80-79)

NCAA Tournament

• March 20: vs. Hofstra (W, 90-70)
• March 22: vs. Texas Tech, 8:45 p.m., TBS

Record: 24-9.

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This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: Alabama basketball odds of beating Texas Tech, per ESPN

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