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FOXBOROUGH — For fans in kilt and statue cone withdrawal, the Scottish national team and the Tartan Army could be back on Monday for the knockout rounds of the World Cup. But a lot needs to go right for that to happen.
Scotland needs to either lose or draw with Brazil on Wednesday and have the correct combinations of other games go their way.
The next game in Foxborough will pit the winner of Group E — a spot that has already been clinched by Germany — against a third-place team from one of the other groups.
Eight of 12 third-place teams advance to the round of 32. Which eight is determined by a formula that weighs points (three per win, one for draw), goal differential, fair play (lack of red cards and yellow cards) and, if necessary, FIFA rankings.
According to the Athletic’s computer model, Scotland, despite being a considerable underdog against Brazil on Wednesday in Miami, still has an 85 percent chance of advancing if it finishes third.
Scottish and Moroccan fans gather at Gillette Stadium for a World Cup Match on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Scottish and Moroccan fans gather at Gillette Stadium for a World Cup Match on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Scottish fans gather at Gillette Stadium for a World Cup Match on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Moroccan fans dispute a referee's call at Gillette Stadium for a World Cup Match on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Scottish and Moroccan fans gather at Gillette Stadium for a World Cup Match on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Moroccan fans beat a drum during a World Cup match against Scotland on Friday, June 19, 2026 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough.
Moroccan fans gather at Gillette Stadium for a World Cup Match on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Scottish fans gather at Gillette Stadium for a World Cup Match on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
Sights and scenes from the World Cup at Gillette Stadium where Scotland and Morocco played against each other on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Foxborough.
If the Scots beat Brazil they’d finish second in their group, which would make returning to Boston impossible. They’d play the Group F winner in Monterrey, Mexico.
If Scotland loses to Brazil, their chances of reaching the knockout stage is still 76 percent. But their odds of reaching Boston are just 18 percent, meaning they’d need several other results to fall a specific way to get to Gillette Stadium.
A draw against the South American power increases the likelihood of Scotland vs. Germany in Foxborough to 33 percent.
There are several combinations of four and five results that work exactly to get them to Boston, but would topple the Jenga tower if you pull one out.
If Scotland draws with Brazil, these are good results for getting them to Boston:
- Czechia beating Mexico
- Senegal beating Iraq
- Curacao beating Ivory Coast
- Ecuador beating Germany
- Australia beating Paraguay
- Uruguay beating Spain
- Egypt drawing with Iran
If Scotland loses to Brazil, they would be helped by some of the same results, but not too many of them, which could cause elimination.
In some cases, the same results that improve Scotland’s chances of reaching Boston also put their advancement at risk.
More World Cup 2026 Coverage
- English defender took a stand that FIFA, Ghana wouldn’t against accused rapist
- World Cup Takeaways from England-Ghana
- World Cup: England’s Djed Spence appears to refuse handshake with Thomas Partey
- World Cup 2026: England settles for draw against Ghana (photos)
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