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The Seahawks, 49ers, Rams, and Cardinals have a combined 13 players inside the top 100 overall ADP. Which three are at risk of being the biggest busts?
Christian McCaffrey leads this group. Running backs coming off 400-touch seasons almost always statistically decline the following year. RBs who are 30+ years old average even steeper declines. McCaffrey is 30 years old and coming off a 450-touch campaign (including the playoffs). He is priced as an elite fantasy player, sporting an RB3 / overall-6 ADP. But based on historical data, he’s one of the biggest early-round risks.
First-round rookie Jadarian Price is lined up to post big numbers -- or so it seems. Zach Charbonnet is coming off a season-ending injury, and Emanuel Wilson has started only two NFL contests entering his age-27 season. George Holani is a 26-year-old with 28 career touches. In other words, Price’s RB26 / overall-65 ADP assumes no serious competition from anyone except Charbonnet, assuming the latter returns early in the season.
But Price was not a bell cow at Notre Dame, collecting only 295 touches across three seasons and never exceeding 15 touches in a game. He’s expected to be no less than a weekly streamer. Yet he’s a long shot to earn enough Year 1 touches to break through.
Finally, Kyren Williams makes me nervous. His RB15 / overall-31 ADP assumes another big workload. But Blake Corum looms, and it’s easy to envision the latter getting more involved at the expense of the former. The team's benefits would be enormous, as Williams would surely play a big role in the playoffs for this Super Bowl contender. I’m expecting the Rams to drop his regular-season touches to around 220-240 rather than push 300.
This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: Christian McCaffrey among 3 potential NFC West fantasy busts
Continue reading...
Christian McCaffrey leads this group. Running backs coming off 400-touch seasons almost always statistically decline the following year. RBs who are 30+ years old average even steeper declines. McCaffrey is 30 years old and coming off a 450-touch campaign (including the playoffs). He is priced as an elite fantasy player, sporting an RB3 / overall-6 ADP. But based on historical data, he’s one of the biggest early-round risks.
First-round rookie Jadarian Price is lined up to post big numbers -- or so it seems. Zach Charbonnet is coming off a season-ending injury, and Emanuel Wilson has started only two NFL contests entering his age-27 season. George Holani is a 26-year-old with 28 career touches. In other words, Price’s RB26 / overall-65 ADP assumes no serious competition from anyone except Charbonnet, assuming the latter returns early in the season.
But Price was not a bell cow at Notre Dame, collecting only 295 touches across three seasons and never exceeding 15 touches in a game. He’s expected to be no less than a weekly streamer. Yet he’s a long shot to earn enough Year 1 touches to break through.
Finally, Kyren Williams makes me nervous. His RB15 / overall-31 ADP assumes another big workload. But Blake Corum looms, and it’s easy to envision the latter getting more involved at the expense of the former. The team's benefits would be enormous, as Williams would surely play a big role in the playoffs for this Super Bowl contender. I’m expecting the Rams to drop his regular-season touches to around 220-240 rather than push 300.
This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: Christian McCaffrey among 3 potential NFC West fantasy busts
Continue reading...
