CBS Sports makes the case for Falcons paying Bijan Robinson

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For a long time, conventional wisdom around the NFL was that you shouldn't pay a running back a handsome second contract, no matter how talented or productive they might be.

That thinking has been changing the last few years as defenses have grown more conservative in coverage, forcing offenses to embrace the run more and therefore making running backs more valuable.

Nevertheless, the Atlanta Falcons haven't found time to pay their superstar back Bijan Robinson this offseason, despite hammering out lucrative long-term deals for wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts. So, when training camp opened last week Robinson did not participate at practice, "holding in" for a new contract.

You'll never find a shortage of fans who think running backs should never get paid - but the numbers say otherwise. Over at CBS Sports, Ryan Wilson recently made a great case for paying Robinson as well as Detroit Lions star Jahmyr Gibbs. It boils down to their production being incredibly rare and difficult to replace.

"Robinson has 5,648 yards from scrimmage through three seasons. Gibbs has 5,029. Among the running backs in our 2016-23 draft sample, only Christian McCaffrey (5,443) and Ezekiel Elliott (5,247) eclipsed the 5K mark through three seasons... If you take a randomly selected Day 2 running back from our sample, that player had a 42.5% chance of reaching at least half of Robinson's production over the same three-season window, and a 45% chance of reaching half of Gibbs'. Get to 70% of their production, though, and those probabilities fall to 10% for Robinson and 20% for Gibbs. At 80%, we're talking about 2.5% for Robinson -- essentially one in 40..."

One in 40 are not good odds - and Robinson is still only entering what should be the prime seasons of his career in the NFL at just 24 years old.

Whatever the holdup is, there's not much of an excuse. Robinson is guaranteed to reset the market at running back and every game he plays without a new contract his price-tag is only going to go up.

Our best guess is the Falcons and Robinson's camp are divided on the guaranteed money portion of the contract. At the moment, Arizona rookie Jeremiyah Love holds the title for most guaranteed money at the position with $53 million. There's a huge gap between Love and the rest of the NFL's running backs in this department, with Saquon Barkley coming in a distant second at $36 million fully guaranteed.

Matt Ryan has done a decent job of retaining Atlanta's top talents in his first year on the job, but if he can't find room to lock up Robinson for the long run before the season begins it will be a big miss.

This article originally appeared on Falcons Wire: CBS Sports makes the case for Falcons paying Bijan Robinson

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