- Joined
- May 8, 2002
- Posts
- 1,150,101
- Reaction score
- 59
It’s funny how vibes change. The 2024 Saints went 5-12 with a -60 point differential. Things were terrible in New Orleans. Dennis Allen got fired midseason, Darren Rizzi never really seemed to be a consideration for the job, and there wasn’t much optimism. The 2025 Saints went 6-11 (that’s better!) with a -77 point differential (that’s worse). But vibes are strong this time. Obviously, there are reasons. Kellen Moore came in, and while he didn’t fix everything in New Orleans right away, no one could have. The 2024 Saints started 2-0 with a 91-29 combined score before disintegrating. The 2025 Saints started 1-8, but Tyler Shough led them on a four-game winning streak in Weeks 14-17. Basically, the 2025 Saints were, in the aggregate, about as bad as the 2024 Saints. But the ’25 team felt way better, so New Orleans fans went into the offseason with hope. The question now, then, is whether that hope can continue to grow in 2026.
There are a few things a quarterback should have for fantasy success. Weaponry (the Saints added WR Jordyn Tyson and TE Oscar Delp to Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson this offseason). A running game to draw attention (Travis Etienne Jr. is in town now, and Alvin Kamara is still there). A coaching staff geared toward optimization (Kellen Moore has a long history of success on offense). A good offensive line (the Saints have rebuilt the line the last couple years). Everything is geared up for Shough to be a good fantasy option in 2026, yet in early ADP, he’s going near the back of the QB2s (he’s QB19 at the moment). He finished as QB16 or better in seven of his nine starts last year, and one of his missed was in his very first game. Basically, if he had carried the draft stock, intrigue and profile of Jaxson Dart, Shough would be going much higher than he is. Instead, he’s turning 27 in September, went in the second round and plays for a New Orleans team that doesn’t get one tenth the attention of the Giants, and so he’s underrated in drafts. In a superflex or two-QB league, Shough makes for an excellent starter.
It’s not that Johnson is being drafted highly in early ADP. He’s TE18 right now, which is all but ignored in the vast majority of drafts. It’s just that after a TE8 finish last year nine different top-12 weeks, I wouldn’t be shocked if some people consider Johnson a late-round option if they ignore TE early, and I would pretty stridently caution against it. Johnson’s biggest virtue in 2025 was a heavy workload. His previous career highs were 66 targets, 50 receptions and 548 yards (all in 2024), but he jumped to 102, 77 and 889, respectively, last year. Those two years of increased workload came when the Saints had Chris Olave (when he was healthy) and not much else to work with, and with Alvin Kamara hitting the cliff and dropping off in a big way. Now, with rookies Jordyn Tyson and Oscar Delp and signee Travis Etienne Jr. all in town, expect Johnson to more like the 50- to 60-target guy he was before 2025, and that’s not fantasy relevant.
After Saints GM Mickey Loomis said in the middle of May that the team was “trying to see” how Kamara would fit on the roster, the popular opinion was the obvious one: That he wouldn’t. After all, if a team is set to keep a guy around, they don’t say they’re trying to see how he’ll fit, they say they’re excited to see his performance. Kamara, who just had his worst season, turns 31 in July and is facing a $10.4 million cap number in 2026, might see the axe. Instead, I expect there to be some sort of agreement. Kamara has repeatedly said he isn’t interested in playing anywhere else, and even if he was, no one is going to offer the Saints anything of value for him. And if Kamara is elsewhere, the Saints will have to roll with the oft-injured Kendre Miller and/or last year’s underwhelming rookie, Devin Neal. So expect the Saints to keep Kamara — likely at a significantly adjusted (and reduced) contract number — and have him roll as the backup to free agent signee Travis Etienne Jr. Maybe it won’t be a super valuable role, but if you are looking for the handcuff for Etienne, it’ll be Kamara.
Continue reading...
2026 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: New Orleans Saints
Sleeper: Tyler Shough, QB
There are a few things a quarterback should have for fantasy success. Weaponry (the Saints added WR Jordyn Tyson and TE Oscar Delp to Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson this offseason). A running game to draw attention (Travis Etienne Jr. is in town now, and Alvin Kamara is still there). A coaching staff geared toward optimization (Kellen Moore has a long history of success on offense). A good offensive line (the Saints have rebuilt the line the last couple years). Everything is geared up for Shough to be a good fantasy option in 2026, yet in early ADP, he’s going near the back of the QB2s (he’s QB19 at the moment). He finished as QB16 or better in seven of his nine starts last year, and one of his missed was in his very first game. Basically, if he had carried the draft stock, intrigue and profile of Jaxson Dart, Shough would be going much higher than he is. Instead, he’s turning 27 in September, went in the second round and plays for a New Orleans team that doesn’t get one tenth the attention of the Giants, and so he’s underrated in drafts. In a superflex or two-QB league, Shough makes for an excellent starter.
Bust: Juwan Johnson, TE
It’s not that Johnson is being drafted highly in early ADP. He’s TE18 right now, which is all but ignored in the vast majority of drafts. It’s just that after a TE8 finish last year nine different top-12 weeks, I wouldn’t be shocked if some people consider Johnson a late-round option if they ignore TE early, and I would pretty stridently caution against it. Johnson’s biggest virtue in 2025 was a heavy workload. His previous career highs were 66 targets, 50 receptions and 548 yards (all in 2024), but he jumped to 102, 77 and 889, respectively, last year. Those two years of increased workload came when the Saints had Chris Olave (when he was healthy) and not much else to work with, and with Alvin Kamara hitting the cliff and dropping off in a big way. Now, with rookies Jordyn Tyson and Oscar Delp and signee Travis Etienne Jr. all in town, expect Johnson to more like the 50- to 60-target guy he was before 2025, and that’s not fantasy relevant.
Bold Prediction: Alvin Kamara Is the Saints’ RB2
You must be registered for see images attach
After Saints GM Mickey Loomis said in the middle of May that the team was “trying to see” how Kamara would fit on the roster, the popular opinion was the obvious one: That he wouldn’t. After all, if a team is set to keep a guy around, they don’t say they’re trying to see how he’ll fit, they say they’re excited to see his performance. Kamara, who just had his worst season, turns 31 in July and is facing a $10.4 million cap number in 2026, might see the axe. Instead, I expect there to be some sort of agreement. Kamara has repeatedly said he isn’t interested in playing anywhere else, and even if he was, no one is going to offer the Saints anything of value for him. And if Kamara is elsewhere, the Saints will have to roll with the oft-injured Kendre Miller and/or last year’s underwhelming rookie, Devin Neal. So expect the Saints to keep Kamara — likely at a significantly adjusted (and reduced) contract number — and have him roll as the backup to free agent signee Travis Etienne Jr. Maybe it won’t be a super valuable role, but if you are looking for the handcuff for Etienne, it’ll be Kamara.
Continue reading...
