- Joined
- May 8, 2002
- Posts
- 1,170,815
- Reaction score
- 59
Louisville basketball played one roller coaster of a regular-season finale. The Cardinals led No. 23 Miami from the 19:22 mark of the first half until only 4:21 remained in regulation — then battled through three ties and six lead changes, the last one coming by way of Adrian Wooley's stepback dagger with 18 seconds on the clock.
If that got your heart racing like you went overboard on the café cubano, get used to it. This is March, after all.
"That's how tournament games are going to be," coach Pat Kelsey said after the Cardinals' 92-89 win over the Hurricanes — their first Quad 1A victory of the season and the program's first W on the road against a ranked opponent since Jan. 18, 2020. "They're going to come down to a possession or two; they're going to come down to big moments."
"It was just a great stepping stone to get where we're trying to go," Wooley added.
Up next: the ACC Tournament. UofL (22-9, 11-7 ACC) earned the No. 6 seed and will play either No. 11 SMU or No. 14 Syracuse at 2:30 p.m. Wednesday at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. A victory would set up a rematch against the No. 3 Hurricanes at 2:30 p.m. Thursday with a spot in the semifinal round on the line.
The biggest question facing Louisville as it prepares for the postseason is: When will Mikel Brown Jr. return from a back injury that has kept the freshman point guard out of the past two games? "We're just going to get him back to 100%," Kelsey said Saturday in Coral Gables, Florida. "When he's there, he'll be back in there. I don't have a timetable."
If it's any consolation to that uncertainty, it's that Cards finally proved they have what it takes to win a big one (without the projected NBA lottery pick, no less).
Now, to your questions.
We begin this edition of The Courier Journal's UofL basketball mailbag by addressing the team's most glaring weakness — one that could very well determine the length of its stay in Charlotte and, for that matter, the NCAA Tournament. From there, we discuss Louisville's play style under Kelsey before diving into a way-too-early roster outlook for 2026-27.
The numbers aren't pretty.
Louisville ended the regular season -60 in paint scoring (322-262), -28 in rebounding margin (330-302) and -23 in second-chance points (111-88) vs. Quad 1A opponents.
With that kind of track record, it's hard to be optimistic. Then, a game like Saturday's happens.
The Cards broke even in paint scoring (38-38) against a Miami team that, according to CBBAnalytics.com, entered the regular-season finale in the 99th percentile nationally in that regard (43.6 paint points per game). They rebounded 26.1% of their missed shots and finished only -4 in the total margin (26-22). But they also got outscored 17-4 in second-chance points — although, to be fair, they didn't have many of those opportunities because they posted their second-best field-goal percentage of the season (60.4%).
An underrated key to the win over the Hurricanes: getting top scorer Malik Reneau to pick up two fouls during the opening two minutes, resulting in him playing only eight during the first half. When he played 17 of the final 20 minutes, he scored 15 points on 13-for-15 shooting at the free-throw line and grabbed four rebounds. It's safe to say the game would have had a totally different feel to it had he gotten into a rhythm early instead of sitting on the bench.
That's how UofL will have to get it done moving forward. Paint touches are a tenet of Kelsey's offense; he wants his guards playing downhill like Wooley, Ryan Conwell and Isaac McKneely did so well against Miami — and like Brown does when he's healthy. If they can get past their man, opposing bigs are forced to make a decision at the rim. The more fouls they pick up, the better. Wear the rotations thin.
"They were really top-blocking us, trying to blow up every screen (and) run us off the line," Kelsey said Saturday. "We've been emphasizing spacing because we have great shooters, and if you're going to go stand out there and face-guard somebody, then that gives people who can really attack and score room to go score."
When it comes to the defensive end vs. frontcourt-led teams, I don't have an answer for you. Hope the postseason creates a sustainable sense of urgency? Per KenPom.com, Miami had its most efficient offensive showing vs. a high-major team against Louisville (138.1 points per 100 possessions). And the biggest problem wasn't a big man — it was senior guard Tre Donaldson, who scored a game-high 25 points on 11-for-16 shooting.
Because 3s are worth more than 2s, and Kelsey has a roster full of guys who shoot it better than they work the low block. Six Cardinals ended the regular season with a clip of 34% or better on 50-plus attempts from beyond the arc.
Louisville entered the postseason with a 15-1 record in games it shot 37.5% or better from deep, averaging 14 makes in those contests.
After a Feb. 23 loss at then-No. 19 North Carolina, Kelsey dubbed J'Vonne Hadley (6-foot-7, 210 pounds) his "best post-up player" — not one of his four who stand 6-10 or taller. That should tell you everything you need to know.
I'll also point you to this quote from Kelsey after the Cards' Dec. 20 win over Montana at the KFC Yum! Center, which saw Sananda Fru score 18 points on 9-for-11 shooting. The coach specifically addressed why you don't see many old-school post-ups ("with the NBA playing the organ music — like, 'dun, dun dun; dun, dun, dun' — and Charles Oakley catching it and backing you down") from his teams. And he alludes to the strategy for winning the paint I outlined in the previous section.
"That's not the most efficient offense," he said. "From a points-per-shot perspective, it's not. You know what is? A shot at the rim. So, all day long, I'll take a post player sealing a guy close to the basket — where all they can do is foul or you're going to score.
"You can get post touches off pick-and-rolls — getting gravity going toward the rim on your rolls. Then, when you have your shooting pulling the gravity the other way, people have to make a decision. If you make sure it's a threat that you're going to throw those guys the ball in the roll, now they help in. Now, you kick out. Now, you get shots."
Conwell, Hadley, McKneely, Aly Khalifa and Kobe Rodgers are the scholarship players who are at the end of their eligibility.
Kasean Pryor has a seventh year of eligibility stemming from the season-ending knee injury he suffered in November 2024. His sixth year came courtesy of the season he spent in the junior college ranks before transferring to South Florida. His limited role in 2025-26, due in part to lingering knee issues, and the fact that he participated in senior day festivities point to him not returning next season.
Assuming Brown becomes Louisville's first one-and-done player, that leaves Fru, Wooley, Mouhamed Camara, London Johnson, Khani Rooths and Vangelis Zougris.
Camara and Johnson redshirted this season, with the latter drawing headlines for nearly burning that year back in January. If everyone's happy with how they're developing in practice, I feel like they'll start their college careers with the Cards in 2026-27.
Fru, Rooths, Wooley and Zougris have had sizable roles this season, but only Fru (22.5) and Wooley (21.4) are averaging more than 20 minutes per game. I'd wager those two would be turning down starting roles at UofL if they hit the portal.
Rooths has shown flashes of potential throughout the season greater than his per-game averages of 5.5 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.1 assists across 17.1 minutes. I have to imagine both he and the coaching staff are hoping a breakout year is on the horizon — he just needs to improve his shooting (21.6% from 3) and his handling.
Zougris has emerged as a starter and a fan favorite despite averaging only 2.1 points and 2.3 rebounds across 8.3 minutes per game. Why not run it back?
I say all of this with a disclaimer: Anything can happen when the portal opens. It all comes down to what benefits these guys the most on the court/financially.
Reach Louisville men's basketball reporter Brooks Holton at [email protected] and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: UofL basketball ACC Tournament, March Madness, 2026-27 roster outlook
Continue reading...
If that got your heart racing like you went overboard on the café cubano, get used to it. This is March, after all.
"That's how tournament games are going to be," coach Pat Kelsey said after the Cardinals' 92-89 win over the Hurricanes — their first Quad 1A victory of the season and the program's first W on the road against a ranked opponent since Jan. 18, 2020. "They're going to come down to a possession or two; they're going to come down to big moments."
"It was just a great stepping stone to get where we're trying to go," Wooley added.
Up next: the ACC Tournament. UofL (22-9, 11-7 ACC) earned the No. 6 seed and will play either No. 11 SMU or No. 14 Syracuse at 2:30 p.m. Wednesday at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. A victory would set up a rematch against the No. 3 Hurricanes at 2:30 p.m. Thursday with a spot in the semifinal round on the line.
The biggest question facing Louisville as it prepares for the postseason is: When will Mikel Brown Jr. return from a back injury that has kept the freshman point guard out of the past two games? "We're just going to get him back to 100%," Kelsey said Saturday in Coral Gables, Florida. "When he's there, he'll be back in there. I don't have a timetable."
If it's any consolation to that uncertainty, it's that Cards finally proved they have what it takes to win a big one (without the projected NBA lottery pick, no less).
Now, to your questions.
We begin this edition of The Courier Journal's UofL basketball mailbag by addressing the team's most glaring weakness — one that could very well determine the length of its stay in Charlotte and, for that matter, the NCAA Tournament. From there, we discuss Louisville's play style under Kelsey before diving into a way-too-early roster outlook for 2026-27.
The teams that have beaten Louisville basketball the worst (e.g., Duke) have a bunch of large, skilled interior players. Is there any hope for the Cards to beat a team like that? — Papa Ball Game
You must be registered for see images
The numbers aren't pretty.
Louisville ended the regular season -60 in paint scoring (322-262), -28 in rebounding margin (330-302) and -23 in second-chance points (111-88) vs. Quad 1A opponents.
With that kind of track record, it's hard to be optimistic. Then, a game like Saturday's happens.
The Cards broke even in paint scoring (38-38) against a Miami team that, according to CBBAnalytics.com, entered the regular-season finale in the 99th percentile nationally in that regard (43.6 paint points per game). They rebounded 26.1% of their missed shots and finished only -4 in the total margin (26-22). But they also got outscored 17-4 in second-chance points — although, to be fair, they didn't have many of those opportunities because they posted their second-best field-goal percentage of the season (60.4%).
An underrated key to the win over the Hurricanes: getting top scorer Malik Reneau to pick up two fouls during the opening two minutes, resulting in him playing only eight during the first half. When he played 17 of the final 20 minutes, he scored 15 points on 13-for-15 shooting at the free-throw line and grabbed four rebounds. It's safe to say the game would have had a totally different feel to it had he gotten into a rhythm early instead of sitting on the bench.
That's how UofL will have to get it done moving forward. Paint touches are a tenet of Kelsey's offense; he wants his guards playing downhill like Wooley, Ryan Conwell and Isaac McKneely did so well against Miami — and like Brown does when he's healthy. If they can get past their man, opposing bigs are forced to make a decision at the rim. The more fouls they pick up, the better. Wear the rotations thin.
"They were really top-blocking us, trying to blow up every screen (and) run us off the line," Kelsey said Saturday. "We've been emphasizing spacing because we have great shooters, and if you're going to go stand out there and face-guard somebody, then that gives people who can really attack and score room to go score."
When it comes to the defensive end vs. frontcourt-led teams, I don't have an answer for you. Hope the postseason creates a sustainable sense of urgency? Per KenPom.com, Miami had its most efficient offensive showing vs. a high-major team against Louisville (138.1 points per 100 possessions). And the biggest problem wasn't a big man — it was senior guard Tre Donaldson, who scored a game-high 25 points on 11-for-16 shooting.
Why do you believe Louisville basketball shoots more 3s than 2s and seems to never post up its big men? Seems as though the 3s are never there against good teams — Ken McIntyre
You must be registered for see images attach
Because 3s are worth more than 2s, and Kelsey has a roster full of guys who shoot it better than they work the low block. Six Cardinals ended the regular season with a clip of 34% or better on 50-plus attempts from beyond the arc.
Louisville entered the postseason with a 15-1 record in games it shot 37.5% or better from deep, averaging 14 makes in those contests.
After a Feb. 23 loss at then-No. 19 North Carolina, Kelsey dubbed J'Vonne Hadley (6-foot-7, 210 pounds) his "best post-up player" — not one of his four who stand 6-10 or taller. That should tell you everything you need to know.
I'll also point you to this quote from Kelsey after the Cards' Dec. 20 win over Montana at the KFC Yum! Center, which saw Sananda Fru score 18 points on 9-for-11 shooting. The coach specifically addressed why you don't see many old-school post-ups ("with the NBA playing the organ music — like, 'dun, dun dun; dun, dun, dun' — and Charles Oakley catching it and backing you down") from his teams. And he alludes to the strategy for winning the paint I outlined in the previous section.
"That's not the most efficient offense," he said. "From a points-per-shot perspective, it's not. You know what is? A shot at the rim. So, all day long, I'll take a post player sealing a guy close to the basket — where all they can do is foul or you're going to score.
"You can get post touches off pick-and-rolls — getting gravity going toward the rim on your rolls. Then, when you have your shooting pulling the gravity the other way, people have to make a decision. If you make sure it's a threat that you're going to throw those guys the ball in the roll, now they help in. Now, you kick out. Now, you get shots."
Which players does Louisville basketball expect to lose after this season (e.g., those who have no remaining eligibility), and whom do they expect back (NIL willing)? — Kathy Campbell
You must be registered for see images attach
Conwell, Hadley, McKneely, Aly Khalifa and Kobe Rodgers are the scholarship players who are at the end of their eligibility.
Kasean Pryor has a seventh year of eligibility stemming from the season-ending knee injury he suffered in November 2024. His sixth year came courtesy of the season he spent in the junior college ranks before transferring to South Florida. His limited role in 2025-26, due in part to lingering knee issues, and the fact that he participated in senior day festivities point to him not returning next season.
Assuming Brown becomes Louisville's first one-and-done player, that leaves Fru, Wooley, Mouhamed Camara, London Johnson, Khani Rooths and Vangelis Zougris.
Camara and Johnson redshirted this season, with the latter drawing headlines for nearly burning that year back in January. If everyone's happy with how they're developing in practice, I feel like they'll start their college careers with the Cards in 2026-27.
Fru, Rooths, Wooley and Zougris have had sizable roles this season, but only Fru (22.5) and Wooley (21.4) are averaging more than 20 minutes per game. I'd wager those two would be turning down starting roles at UofL if they hit the portal.
Rooths has shown flashes of potential throughout the season greater than his per-game averages of 5.5 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.1 assists across 17.1 minutes. I have to imagine both he and the coaching staff are hoping a breakout year is on the horizon — he just needs to improve his shooting (21.6% from 3) and his handling.
Zougris has emerged as a starter and a fan favorite despite averaging only 2.1 points and 2.3 rebounds across 8.3 minutes per game. Why not run it back?
I say all of this with a disclaimer: Anything can happen when the portal opens. It all comes down to what benefits these guys the most on the court/financially.
Reach Louisville men's basketball reporter Brooks Holton at [email protected] and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: UofL basketball ACC Tournament, March Madness, 2026-27 roster outlook
Continue reading...
