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A compelling subplot at the 2026 World Cup has been Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe’s chase for goal-scoring history.
Earlier in the tournament, both passed German striker Miroslav Klose’s previous record of 16 career World Cup goals. As of July 2, Messi has scored 19 goals across his World Cup career, while Mbappe has 18.
Of course, a wrinkle in this chase is their ages — Messi is 39 while Mbappe is 27.
Surely Mbappe will pass Messi in a future World Cup, right?
Not so fast.
Mbappe will be 31 when the 2030 World Cup is played primarily in Morocco, Portugal and Spain. Per data analyzed by USA TODAY, age 31 is right about when goal scorers drop off in the World Cup.
Based on that data, just 12% of World Cup goal scorers in a given tournament have been age 31 or older at the start of the tournament. Mbappe will need to buck that trend, something both Messi and his longtime rival Cristiano Ronaldo have managed to do.
Four years is also a long time.
France, for example, came out of the 2006 World Cup as runners-up after a penalty shootout loss to Italy in the final. However, the country suffered an embarrassing group stage exit at the 2010 tournament.
It’s not inconceivable that Mbappe’s French team, although looking near-invincible in 2026, could follow a similar path in 2030.
Age also catches up to the best of players. Ronaldinho, at a spry 26 years old, entered the 2006 World Cup as the defending Ballon d’Or winner. At the 2010 World Cup, he was left off the Brazil roster completely at age 30.
There are also injuries. The record holder for most goals at a single World Cup, Frenchman Just Fontaine, broke his leg after his 13-goal 1958 tournament and was out of professional soccer by 1962. Injuries have also altered the paths of superstars like Neymar and Marco Reus.
However, if there was someone to defy age and adapt through injuries, perhaps Mbappe is the man to do it.
Ronaldo offers a blueprint. He began his career as a speedy winger. As he aged and his role changed, including after knee trouble earlier in his career, he adapted, gradually becoming more of a penalty-box finisher who relied on positioning, timing and anticipation rather than pure athleticism.
Regardless of where the record stands when the 2026 World Cup ends, Mbappe’s chase is not as simple as adding goals at his current pace. The next four years will test the same things that have shaped every great scorer’s career: health, form, team strength and the ability to adapt.
Methodology note: Historical age and goal scorer data from the Fjelstul World Cup Database. 2026 goals data from FIFA’s stats page. 2026 age data from FIFA’s list of team rosters. 2026 scorers through June 30.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Can Kylian Mbappe catch Lionel Messi's World Cup goals record?
Continue reading...
Earlier in the tournament, both passed German striker Miroslav Klose’s previous record of 16 career World Cup goals. As of July 2, Messi has scored 19 goals across his World Cup career, while Mbappe has 18.
Of course, a wrinkle in this chase is their ages — Messi is 39 while Mbappe is 27.
Surely Mbappe will pass Messi in a future World Cup, right?
Not so fast.
Mbappe will be 31 when the 2030 World Cup is played primarily in Morocco, Portugal and Spain. Per data analyzed by USA TODAY, age 31 is right about when goal scorers drop off in the World Cup.
Based on that data, just 12% of World Cup goal scorers in a given tournament have been age 31 or older at the start of the tournament. Mbappe will need to buck that trend, something both Messi and his longtime rival Cristiano Ronaldo have managed to do.
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Four years is also a long time.
France, for example, came out of the 2006 World Cup as runners-up after a penalty shootout loss to Italy in the final. However, the country suffered an embarrassing group stage exit at the 2010 tournament.
It’s not inconceivable that Mbappe’s French team, although looking near-invincible in 2026, could follow a similar path in 2030.
Age also catches up to the best of players. Ronaldinho, at a spry 26 years old, entered the 2006 World Cup as the defending Ballon d’Or winner. At the 2010 World Cup, he was left off the Brazil roster completely at age 30.
There are also injuries. The record holder for most goals at a single World Cup, Frenchman Just Fontaine, broke his leg after his 13-goal 1958 tournament and was out of professional soccer by 1962. Injuries have also altered the paths of superstars like Neymar and Marco Reus.
However, if there was someone to defy age and adapt through injuries, perhaps Mbappe is the man to do it.
Ronaldo offers a blueprint. He began his career as a speedy winger. As he aged and his role changed, including after knee trouble earlier in his career, he adapted, gradually becoming more of a penalty-box finisher who relied on positioning, timing and anticipation rather than pure athleticism.
Regardless of where the record stands when the 2026 World Cup ends, Mbappe’s chase is not as simple as adding goals at his current pace. The next four years will test the same things that have shaped every great scorer’s career: health, form, team strength and the ability to adapt.
Methodology note: Historical age and goal scorer data from the Fjelstul World Cup Database. 2026 goals data from FIFA’s stats page. 2026 age data from FIFA’s list of team rosters. 2026 scorers through June 30.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Can Kylian Mbappe catch Lionel Messi's World Cup goals record?
Continue reading...
