Can Cowboys' Downs, Lawrence live up to hype as rookie expectations soar?

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The Dallas Cowboys' hype continues to grow, largely due to the team's aggressive approach towards revamping and reinventing its defense. Two reasons for that hype have been their rookie additions, Caleb Downs and Malachi Lawrence. ESPN's Mike Clay added more fuel to the fire with his rookie stat projections for this 2026 rookie class.

Both Downs and Lawrence are listed among the top-5 at their positional stat lines, which is great news for Dallas if these projections come to fruition. The Cowboys have high hopes and expect to see positive production on the field from them early in the season. Downs making this list isn't much of a surprise, but seeing Lawrence as a headliner was a bit of a shocker.

Clay has Downs listed in the top-5 in two categories: tackles and interceptions. His role in Dallas will be that of much more than a safety, as the team has flooded that position with depth this offseason. In free agency, the Cowboys signed Jalen Thompson and PJ Locke, and they already had incumbent veteran Malik Hooker in the fold. That will allow them to use the Ohio State product as a versatile defender, spending time in the slot as well as as an over-the-top safety, split safety and box defender.

With everything that's been said about Downs ability to process scheme and in-play information at lightning speed, his projections may be short of expectations.

Downs is projected to have 82 tackles as a rookie, good for fourth on this list, tied with rookie safety Dillion Thieneman and trailing linebackers Sonny Styles (123 tackles) and Arvil Reese (116 tackles). He shows up on the interceptions list with two, tied with Treydan Stukes and Mansoor Delane for best among rookies.

While Downs shows up twice on this list, Lawrence only appears once, but it's a stat line that has a big impact on games: sacks.

Lawrence lands on this list with Clay projecting him to end the season with 5.7 sacks, good enough for second among rookies; only David Bailey is projected to have more. Clay's projection would be an improvement over the production Donovan Ezeiruaku had as a rookie, registering just two sacks in his rookie year despite consistently creating pressure.

The question for Dallas is whether or not Lawrence will be in a designated pass-rush role, at least at the onset. Ezeiruaku proved to be a top-tier edge setter in the run game, and the Cowboys have created a focus there in Christian Parker's new scheme. They also added Rashan Gary to the mix this offseason, via a trade with Green Bay.

These are all hypothetical projections, but if Dallas can get that type of production from their two first-round rookies, along with a boost from their new defensive coaching staff. The hype the Cowboys have been receiving since the draft could very well be justified and lead to a quicker turnaround on defense than many expected.

This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: Stat projections add fuel to hype for Cowboys rooks Downs, Lawrence

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