Bowles' Defense: On the Verge of Becoming Super?

[Mitch]

This Year's Challenge:

Todd "Super" Bowles inherited the most talented defense the Cardinals have had in quite some time. Bowles is a Bill Parcells disciple and thus is very savvy in working the 34. Forget about what happened in Philly---that wasn't Bowles' gig from the get-go: wrong style of defense and wrong end of a miserable season.

The good news about Bowles' short tenure as DC in Philly is that it has helped prepare him for making the in-game defensive calls and adjustments---which is a lot more challenging than it looks, especially these days when so many offenses dictate defensive personnel groups via the hurry-up or the new rage speed option.

Basically NFL defenses today are morphing into hybrid versions of the nickel and dime packages---you have to do whatever you can to pressure the QB while applying good, sticky coverage on the WRs, TEs and RBs...ideally with some safety help over the top.

And in the NFC West, it is going to become imperative to assign a spy to shadow Kaepernick and Wilson---we saw how Kaepernick shredded the Packers in the playoffs when Packers' DC Dom Capers eschewed the QB spy adjustment.

Assigning a QB spy changes the way you play defense, because now you have to cover with 5 and when you add a spy that leaves 5 players left---which basically means you only have the luxury of keeping one deep safety, not two, that is if you rush 4. Sometimes you can rush 3---but we all know how generally ineffective that strategy tends to be.

Conclusion: The Cardinals need to generate significant pressure with 4 rushers.

Do they have the personnel to be able to do that right now?

Yes, inside.

No, on the outside.

Ray Horton was a master at manufacturing pressure via a variety of blitzes. Can Todd Bowles do the same?

Yes, but to a lesser extent.

For the Cardinals to be truly super on defense---they need to be able to generate super pressure in the 4 man rush---

This has to be this year's priority.

Home Grown:

Props to Steve Keim, Jason Licht and the Cardinals' Scouts the past several years for being the draft architects of the current defensive personnel. Take a look at how this defense was built through the draft:

1st Rounders: NT Dan Williams; CB Patrick Peterson
2nd Rounders: DE Calais Campbell; ILB Daryl Washington
3rd Rounders: SS Adrian Wilson; DE Darnell Dockett; FS Rashad Johnson*; CB Jamell Fleming
4th Rounders: CB Greg Toler*; OLB O'Brien Schofield; OLB Sam Acho
6th Rounders: DE/NT David Carter; S Justin Bethel

There is the nucleus of the Cardinals' defense. What we have is potential Pro Bowlers in Peterson, Campbell, Washington and Dockett (if rejuvenated).

And then some good, young complimentary talent in Williams, Johnson, Fleming, Toler, Schofield, Acho, Carter and Bethel.

Steve Keim will be talking to Rashad Johnson's and Greg Toler's agents in Indy---he wants them back and has hinted that they want to be back. I think he gets both of these deals done.

Decisions & Improvements:

1. SS Adrian Wilson---what makes the most sense is that Wilson agrees to take another pay cut and agrees to a situational role as a nickel rusher/underneath cover man. Wilson is still good at both. If Wilson believes he is still a full-time player, then the team should let him relocate. Sad reality in the NFL, but it is what it is.

2. FS Kerry Rhodes---Rhodes was clearly at his best when he played up as a SS when Wilson was out. But, clearly something needs to be done about his $6M salary---it has been rumored that the Cardinals would like to sign Rhodes to a new deal---it has also been rumored that Rhodes isn't all that happy in Arizona especially now that Ray Horton is gone. Rhodes can force his way out by not wanting to sign a new deal. I think he will force his way out and that Rashad Johnson will become the starting SS and Todd Bowles will be influential in bringing UFA FS Chris Clemons (Dolphins) to Arizona to be the starter.

3. CB Greg Toler---if the Cardinals re-sign him and I feel confident they will, they will be set at CB, as Toler will start opposite Patrick Peterson. If Toler signs elsewhere, Steve Keim will have to hit the free agent market. CB Sean Smith has already priced himself out of the market, imo. The guy to keep an eye on is the Jaguar's Derek Cox (6-1, 190), who has battle through injuries but appears to be in top shape now. The Cardinals will likely select a CB in the draft, and if they lose Toler and come up empty in FA, here's a list of possible fits as 3rd-5th rounders:

Leon McFadden (5-10, 185, San Diego St.)
Jamar Taylor (5-11, 195, Boise St.)
Blidi Wreh-Wilson (6-2, 190, Connecticut)
David Amerson (6-3, 194, North Carolina St.)
Jordan Poyer (6-0, 190, Oregon St.)
Tyrann Mathieu (5-9, 175, LSU)
Tharold Simon (6-3, 193, LSU)
Terry Hawthorne (6-0, 190, Illinois)
Ryan Logan (6-0, 190, Rutgers)
Nigel Malone (5-10, 185, Kansas St.)

Of the players on this list two players stand out to me as CBs Steve Keim would key in on: David Amerson and Ryan Logan. Amerson has an incredible nose for the ball---and you have to love his size---what scouts this weekend wll be paying close attention to is how loose his hips are and how quickly he can come out of this backpedal. Logan is one tough nut. He brings a passion and a flair to the position.

4. CB William Gay. While many people feel he is a no-brainer to cut, I think Steve Keim and Todd Bowles might think otherwise---the reason is, he's very good in the slot as the nickel back. That's his forte at a critical need area.

5. LB Stewart Bradley. It would be very interesting to hear the conversations Steve Keim, Jason Licht and Todd Bowles are having about Bradley. What we still don't know for sure is why Ray Horton was so reluctant to play Bradley this past year. We do know that Horton put his full trust into Paris Lenon, whom I sense will follow Horton to Cleveland.

Bradley has the attributes that the Cardinals need at the strong ILB position because he can play at a high physical level, he can chase side to side well and, best of all, he can cover TEs, which in this division is imperative. Bradley's salary is an issue---but perhaps they can redo his deal, if that's the direction they want to take.

The Cardinals also have Reggie Walker in the mix at that position---but Walker seems to be thriving in a versatile role as a nickel OLB---where he showed surprising edge rushing ability down the stretch last year.

Where Bradley clearly has it over Walker is in coverage.

If Bradley is let go---a guy to keep an eye on in FA is Akeem Jordan (6-1, 240). Bowles coached him this past year and Jordan was one of the few bright spots. Jordan would be easily affordable.

If the Cardinals wish to make a FA splash at ILB, here are some possibilities:

Rey Maualuga
Dannell Ellerbe
Tim Dobbins
Moise Fokou
Brad Jones
Bart Scott
Bradie James
Larry Grant

Adding 2 Edge Rushers

This is the key to the Cardinals' off-season on defense---and I feel very confident that this time around Steve Keim is making this a priority.

What we lack and have lacked are what the scouts call "quick-twitch" rushers, who can hammer the edge, disengage the tackle and get to the football in a hurry either into the pocket or when the QB breaks the pocket.

Edge Rush Philosophy Versus Kaepernick & Wilson:

They key is the DEs can't allow themselves to get steered way wide of the QB (because that will give CK and RW easy escape routes to the vacated area)---they have to maintain the boundary of the pocket so as to keep the QB inside the pocket. This is called a "controlled rush".

They FA and draft choices that fit this bill to a tee and have the quick twitch ability to shed the block and sack the QB are:

Jarvis Jones
Bjoern Werner
Ziggy Ansah
Dion Jordan
Damontre Moore

Dwight Freeney
Cliff Avril
Osi Umenyiora
Anthony Spencer
Paul Kruger
Connor Barwin
Victor Butler

If two of these edge rushers become Cardinals---this defense could dominate even within the NFC West.

 

[Quinn McCollum]

I see the defense taking about 10 steps back this coming year.

 

[Reddog]

This is well done. So Mitch knowing we have serious needs to generate some offense. Can you please take us through your draft and FA moves that you think can happen within the cap?

 

[GuernseyCard]

Good stuff, but, your rumour here and there references to Kerry Rhodes seem to draw from you long held antipathy towards him.

 

[kerouac9]

Ray Horton was a master at manufacturing pressure via a variety of blitzes. Can Todd Bowles do the same?

Yes, but to a lesser extent.

There's no actual evidence to support this conclusion. The Eagles defense once Bowles took over was stinktacular.

If the Cards are going to improve at putting pressure on the passer--or not step significantly backward--they're going to have to do it by upgrading defensive personnel. Unforunately, doing so prevents us from adding resources to the offensive side of the ball.

 

[WildBB]

Conclusion: The Cardinals need to generate significant pressure with 4 rushers.

Do they have the personnel to be able to do that right now?

Yes, inside.

No, on the outside.

Ray Horton was a master at manufacturing pressure via a variety of blitzes. Can Todd Bowles do the same?

Yes, but to a lesser extent.

For the Cardinals to be truly super on defense---they need to be able to generate super pressure in the 4 man rush---

This has to be this year's priority.

Adding 2 Edge Rushers

This is the key to the Cardinals' off-season on defense---and I feel very confident that this time around Steve Keim is making this a priority.

What we lack and have lacked are what the scouts call "quick-twitch" rushers, who can hammer the edge, disengage the tackle and get to the football in a hurry either into the pocket or when the QB breaks the pocket.

Edge Rush Philosophy Versus Kaepernick & Wilson:

They key is the DEs can't allow themselves to get steered way wide of the QB (because that will give CK and RW easy escape routes to the vacated area)---they have to maintain the boundary of the pocket so as to keep the QB inside the pocket. This is called a "controlled rush".

They FA and draft choices that fit this bill to a tee and have the quick twitch ability to shed the block and sack the QB are:

Jarvis Jones
Bjoern Werner
Ziggy Ansah
Dion Jordan
Damontre Moore

Dwight Freeney
Cliff Avril
Osi Umenyiora
Anthony Spencer
Paul Kruger
Connor Barwin
Victor Butler

If two of these edge rushers become Cardinals---this defense could dominate even within the NFC West.

Jarvis Jones is a typical stand up LB. Jordan can play either way at the next level, imo. Which might make him the most valuable. The other three seem to be pretty much rush ends overall. Although Moore did play some LB before last season, his natural fit seems to be DE.

All of which may be moot because IF we address the front 7 of the D, it won't be until #38 if then. The FO is certainly sending out the message that Warmack is worth taking where they presently sit. Recently Keim was heard saying that they'll look into a few senario's for moving from the current draft position. Meaning they would still need to be in the area of an impact selection and favoring the team comp. wise.

Which to me is good news because we're thin all over, imo. On the D alone, we could use another DE/OLB, ILB, S and like you say you never have enough depth at CB. That's just talking about the strength of the team! The D! We'll see where FA lands us, but they need to make some decisions to free up $$.

You still high on Barwin?

 

[Mitch]

Good stuff, but, your rumour here and there references to Kerry Rhodes seem to draw from you long held antipathy towards him.

Actually I was paraphrasing what MJ said about Rhodes on the radio yesterday---he used the same "hearing rumors" term.

And I like Kerry Rhodes as a SS (not as a FS)...not at $6M a year in either case...but for half of that, and for playing SS, he's worth it, imo.

 

[JeffGollin]

Two things -

1. It will be hard to predict how well we'll do until we know better who'll be on our roster.

2. One way some teams designate "spies" is to mix up the assignments from play to play so their opponent won't know which of their players (if any) will be spying on their QB. (Sort of like not knowing which OLB in the 3-4 will be the 4th pass rusher off the edge).

 

[Jay Cardinal]

Good read Mitch. My take is that I would hate to lose: Rashad Johnson, Greg Toler, and Kerry Rhodes. I feel all three still have some of their best football to be played. Also for Keim's first draft pick as GM, I think he will end up going with a pass rusher. I just think that the best difference makers are at OLB and 4-3 DE. I think that if Demontre Moore or Jarvis Jones is available, Keim grabs them based on talent/value at the 7th pick.

 

[WildBB]

Good read Mitch. My take is that I would hate to lose: Rashad Johnson, Greg Toler, and Kerry Rhodes. I feel all three still have some of their best football to be played. Also for Keim's first draft pick as GM, I think he will end up going with a pass rusher. I just think that the best difference makers are at OLB and 4-3 DE. I think that if Demontre Moore or Jarvis Jones is available, Keim grabs them based on talent/value at the 7th pick.

What do you know!......jk!

 

[Dr. Jones]

I have no faith in a Belicheck 3-4 disciple to get the best out of a LeBeau style of 3-4 defense. The roles, and attack schemes are night and day. Without the fire-sale biltz schemes Ray was cooking up each week we will need to get MUCH better at pressuring the QB with Acho, & Scho. And frankly, I have ZERO faith in that happening consistently.

I honestly think our defense will regress to middle of the league this year. So any gains that will be made on offense (which will be negligible in year 1 IMO) will be completely cancelled out by our losses on defense.

5 to 6 wins..... Tops.

 

[Darkside]

Mitch, nice writeup but I totally disagree about your spy protection scheme that you advocate at the beginning of your post. Spy protect is 1990s and hasn't been upgraded but it will be. I remember seeing Chicago V Vick years ago and Urlacher was spying. You simply cannot--don't care who it is--take your best defender in a guy like Urlacher and ask him to shadow a QB in the chance that he may run.
That takes your best player out of the game.

Defenses will figure it out but they won't spy. Atlanta had the right idea in a way--you take away Kaep running, which they did, and make the RB kick your ass. Gore did, but there's not a lot of Gore's on teams (except in our division, with the best set of RBs in any division). Other option is to let the QB run and destroy him every time. They're not gonna let Kaep or Vick or whomever take a lot of hits. When teams start beating the crap out of these running QBs you'll see it less and less. Those are two obvious options and a pro coach obviously will figure out a better way to stop it. Spy isn't the answer. That's giving up and saying your scheme is better than mine. That won't happen in 2013/14 and beyond.


Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk 2

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Horton>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bowles. Regression will happen, Billy Davis style. :'''''(

 

[GuernseyCard]

I have no faith in a Belicheck 3-4 disciple to get the best out of a LeBeau style of 3-4 defense. The roles, and attack schemes are night and day. Without the fire-sale biltz schemes Ray was cooking up each week we will need to get MUCH better at pressuring the QB with Acho, & Scho. And frankly, I have ZERO faith in that happening consistently.

I honestly think our defense will regress to middle of the league this year. So any gains that will be made on offense (which will be negligible in year 1 IMO) will be completely cancelled out by our losses on defense.

5 to 6 wins..... Tops.

It's more properly described as the "Tuna 3-4", and it's from Parcell's that Bowles was tutored on the 3-4. In this system the DE's play a fair amount of one gap, up the field, and that's where the added pressure comes from. And, it's the reason DD is enthused that we're dropping the 2-gap Pittsburgh system as the base.