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COLUMBUS, OH - APRIL 18: Quarterback Julian Sayin #10 of the Ohio State Buckeyes in action during the 2026 Ohio State Spring Game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio on Apirl 18, 2026. (Photo by Jason Mowry/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
As preseason camp begins this week, Land-Grant Holy Land is diving into its final theme every week of the off-season. This week is all about making predictions that may or may not be reasonable, in fact, some might say they are bold. You can catch up on all of the Theme Week content here and all of our ”Bold Predictions” articles here.
One of the realities of the modern playoff era is a significantly longer season for the most successful teams, something that has extensive ripple effects for these top programs.
There is, of course, the battle to stay healthy through additional playoff games, which tend to be more knock-down, drag-out than regular season games because of the high stakes and caliber of talent. There’s a mental aspect, including the intangible need to peak at the right time in order to sustain success.
Then there’s the statistical ramifications. For “per game” stats, adding games dilutes things, making it harder to achieve the same numbers we’ve seen historically, especially given how challenging the competition is in the playoffs.
Because of this, the likelihood that even the most elite programs will put up 40 points per season is much lower than it was in the past. It is not unheard of. Indiana, for example, averaged 41.6 points per game in their 2025 National Championship season. But it is certainly much more challenging, especially if you’re playing a tough schedule.
To further dilute things, the rule change that keeps the clock running after a team moves the chains except for the final two minutes of each half kicked in in 2023, meaning teams have to score on a larger number of their possessions.
The Buckeyes, for their part, averaged 33.4 points per game in 2025 and 37.2 ppg en route to the national title in 2024, the first year of the 12-team playoff system. Compare this to 2022, when the Buckeyes went 11-1 in the regular season and then lost in the Peach Bowl but logged an average of 44.2 points per game.
The 40-point margin is challenging in the modern era at baseline, made more challenging by the difficulty of Ohio State’s 2026 schedule, which ranks the eighth-hardest in college football. The Buckeyes face Texas, Indiana and USC on the road, with home games against Illinois, Oregon and Michigan.
But if anyone can rise to the challenge, it’s this year’s roster: Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith represent one of the most—if not the most—explosive duos in college football. Together, they have the ability to put up the numbers needed for a 40-point-per-game average.
Sayin’s accuracy and quick-on-his-feet decision-making, along with Smith’s generational talent allows the Buckeyes to strike quickly, something that in many ways offsets the clock rule because it allows the Buckeyes to use less time on drives.
In spite of losing Carnell Tate to the NFL, the Buckeyes also have Brandon Inniss, freshman phenom Chris Henry Jr., and LSU transfer Kyle Parker behind Smith, providing some of the same insurance against teams double-teaming Smith. Doing so leaves opponents vulnerable to surrendering big plays elsewhere on the field.
Additionally, the offensive line continuity from last season, which serves as a strong indicator for offensive line success, should give Sayin an extremely secure pocket from which to operate.
Left tackle Austin Siereveld, who allowed just 15 pressures all season on Sayin’s blind side, returns to anchor the unit, alongside veterans Carson Hinzman, Luke Montgomery and Philip Daniels. Ian Moore made a strong case for himself to fill the fifth starting role after a standout showing at spring camp.
On the defensive side of the ball, the unit should remain elite, but with the difficulty of Ohio State’s schedule, Ryan Day likely won’t have the luxury of easing up in the fourth quarter the way he has in previous seasons. Against teams like Texas and Indiana, the starters will play the full game and likely resulting in high-scoring, back-and-forth battles.
This is not to say this season’s defense isn’t elite: The unit is ranked as the No. 1 defense in the country heading into the season. Despite losing several key players to the NFL, three of whom were taken in the top 11 overall in the NFL Draft (Arvell Reese at No. 5, Sonny Styles at No. 7 and Caleb Downs at No. 11), defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has done an excellent job of filling gaps with both homegrown talent and transfer portal additions.
The real challenge for the defense is the difficulty of the schedule, but Patricia’s bunch should be well-equipped to force opposing offenses off the field quickly, giving Sayin and Co. more opportunities to run the score up.
And then there is the unit that, in past seasons, has been a bit of an elephant in the room: Special teams. To increase their average points per game, the Buckeyes have to maximize every drive, adding points wherever they can get them (yes, sometimes even field goals).
Last year’s unit, as much as it pains me to say it, was a liability.
Jayden Fielding missed four field goals on the year, including two brutal postseason misses.
The first and certainly the most egregious, a 27-yard attempt, would have tied the game against Indiana in the Big Ten Championship. The second, a 49-yard attempt just before the half against Miami in the Cotton Bowl, left the Buckeyes scoreless heading into halftime.
Now, to be fair to Fielding, 49 yards would have tied his career long, so this one is more forgivable, but on the whole Fielding wasn’t nearly consistent enough for a program of this caliber.
Enter Connor Hawkins, the transfer kicker out of Baylor. Hawkins’ percentage of made field goals surpassed Fielding’s only slightly (both missed four, but Hawkins had more attempts), but Hawkins’ career long of 54 yards and better reliability from long range both make him an excellent replacement.
This should, in theory, allow the Buckeyes to milk even more points out of opponents, adding three points to stalling drives rather than punting on fourth down.
With all of this firepower on the field, even if they have lower-scoring games against teams like Texas and Indiana, Ohio State should be able to drive up the score in early games against Ball State and Kent State and put up healthy numbers against the likes of Maryland and Northwestern to drive their average up, all of which could help them average out to more than 40 points per game in spite of a challenging schedule.
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