Bijan Robinson

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sinsay

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I thought this board was smarter than this. Come on guys.

The run game is a problem that can be solved without taking a RB in the first round.
Playing RB is one of the easiest positions to get on the field and make a change. Cards don't have a problem sitting rookies the last two 1st rd picks and the 2nd rd pick this year. It is often said the game is won in the trenches, but games are always won with a team scoring more points. Robinson gives the Cards a chance to score more points. Cards QB is the team's leading rusher
and there is a pro bowl type runner on the board why draft a OL DL player who may not play next year and sit the bench. With Brown and D-HOP and a good to great RB who can really stop that offense.
 

BritCard

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This is the common mistake. A good running and receiving RB can be a game changer but it is consistently able to be found outside the first round.

I think this is overblown. There is this myth that you can find good multi threat backs in late rounds because of guys like Chris Carson.

For every Carson there are 30 no marks that never did a thing in the league.

This is the 2021 running back class. Outside of Elijah Mitchell who has really done anything outside the Top 3? Stevenson is just starting to contribute as a runner and I like Khalil Herbert but he only proves the point. or every Herbert there are 20 scrubs.

2021​
1​
1​
24​
24​
Najee Harris​
Steelers​
Alabama​
2​
1​
25​
25​
Travis Etienne​
Jaguars​
Clemson​
3​
2​
3​
35​
Javonte Williams​
Broncos​
North Carolina​
4​
3​
24​
88​
Trey Sermon​
49ers​
Ohio State​
5​
4​
2​
107​
Michael Carter​
Jets​
North Carolina​
6​
4​
14​
119​
Kene Nwangwu​
Vikings​
Iowa State​
7​
4​
15​
120​
Rhamondre Stevenson​
Patriots​
Oklahoma​
8​
4​
21​
126​
Chuba Hubbard​
Panthers​
Oklahoma State​
9​
5​
6​
150​
Kenneth Gainwell​
Eagles​
Memphis​
10​
5​
40​
184​
Ben Mason​
Ravens​
Michigan​
11​
6​
10​
194​
Elijah Mitchell​
49ers​
Louisiana-Lafayette​
12​
6​
12​
196​
Gary Brightwell​
Giants​
Arizona​
13​
6​
14​
198​
Larry Rountree​
Chargers​
Missouri​
14​
6​
18​
202​
Chris Evans​
Bengals​
Michigan​
15​
6​
27​
211​
Demetric Felton​
Browns​
UCLA​
16​
6​
33​
217​
Khalil Herbert​
Bears​
Virginia Tech​
17​
7​
5​
233​
Jake Funk​
Rams​
Maryland​
18​
7​
17​
244​
Gerrid Doaks​
Dolphins​
Cincinnati​
19​
7​
29​
256​
Kylin Hill​
Packers​
Mississippi State​
20​
7​
30​
257​
Jermar Jefferson​
Lions​
Oregon State​


I'm looking at all recent drafts and the chances of finding a good dual threat RB in later rounds is slim to none. Of ALL the running backs drafted there is Tony Pollard in round 4 of 2019. Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt and James Conner round 3 and Chris Carson round 7 of 2017. Kenyan Drake in 2016. David Johnson 2015.

It happens, but it's rare. You really have to pick no later than round 2 to have a decent shot.
 

BritCard

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Game changing runningbacks who do it all can be found in round 3.

No they can't. See post above.

There was one year that produced a clutch of good round 3 running backs but for every one of them there are 20 busts or roster depth guys at best.
 

BritCard

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This is interesting. This is data compiled by Peter Howard for fantasy football which is useful for tracking RB success in this case as it favors all round backs. You can find his website and methods via google.

So this is the odds of a running back being a top 5, top 12 or top 24 player in fantasy.

As you can see round 1 backs have twice the chance of round 2 and over 3 times the chance of round 3 backs of being the very best. The multiples decline as you head into top 12 (good) and top 24 (mediocre) territory.

As you can see it falls of a cliff after round 3. The sweet spot for value is probably the 26.79% chance of having a top 12 running back in round 2.

Again, I'm not advocating for running back in round 1. I'm simply saying I think it's a strong possibility for the Cards O and the numbers do stack up. Obviously nobody should take a RB top 10 but I think a RB in the mid to late teens can be justified for the right player.

I also don't think this is a particularly good RB class outside the top 2.

You must be registered for see images attach
 
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Chopper0080

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I think this is overblown. There is this myth that you can find good multi threat backs in late rounds because of guys like Chris Carson.

For every Carson there are 30 no marks that never did a thing in the league.

This is the 2021 running back class. Outside of Elijah Mitchell who has really done anything outside the Top 3? Stevenson is just starting to contribute as a runner and I like Khalil Herbert but he only proves the point. or every Herbert there are 20 scrubs.

2021​
1​
1​
24​
24​
Najee Harris​
Steelers​
Alabama​
2​
1​
25​
25​
Travis Etienne​
Jaguars​
Clemson​
3​
2​
3​
35​
Javonte Williams​
Broncos​
North Carolina​
4​
3​
24​
88​
Trey Sermon​
49ers​
Ohio State​
5​
4​
2​
107​
Michael Carter​
Jets​
North Carolina​
6​
4​
14​
119​
Kene Nwangwu​
Vikings​
Iowa State​
7​
4​
15​
120​
Rhamondre Stevenson​
Patriots​
Oklahoma​
8​
4​
21​
126​
Chuba Hubbard​
Panthers​
Oklahoma State​
9​
5​
6​
150​
Kenneth Gainwell​
Eagles​
Memphis​
10​
5​
40​
184​
Ben Mason​
Ravens​
Michigan​
11​
6​
10​
194​
Elijah Mitchell​
49ers​
Louisiana-Lafayette​
12​
6​
12​
196​
Gary Brightwell​
Giants​
Arizona​
13​
6​
14​
198​
Larry Rountree​
Chargers​
Missouri​
14​
6​
18​
202​
Chris Evans​
Bengals​
Michigan​
15​
6​
27​
211​
Demetric Felton​
Browns​
UCLA​
16​
6​
33​
217​
Khalil Herbert​
Bears​
Virginia Tech​
17​
7​
5​
233​
Jake Funk​
Rams​
Maryland​
18​
7​
17​
244​
Gerrid Doaks​
Dolphins​
Cincinnati​
19​
7​
29​
256​
Kylin Hill​
Packers​
Mississippi State​
20​
7​
30​
257​
Jermar Jefferson​
Lions​
Oregon State​




I'm looking at all recent drafts and the chances of finding a good dual threat RB in later rounds is slim to none. Of ALL the running backs drafted there is Tony Pollard in round 4 of 2019. Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt and James Conner round 3 and Chris Carson round 7 of 2017. Kenyan Drake in 2016. David Johnson 2015.

It happens, but it's rare. You really have to pick no later than round 2 to have a decent shot.
It's one season so I am not going to get all into this list other than Herbert, Mitchell, Gainwell, Williams, Hubbard, Stevenson and Carter are all contributors.

Hell, if you take the top 20 RBs in yards from scrimmage this year, only 5 were drafted in the first round.
 

Chopper0080

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and before you run into the unintentional trap, only two of those 5 were in the top 20 the year before.
 

Russ Smith

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It really depends how good they think he is. The Titans won a game last week with like 40 yards passing because their run game was so dominant but all their rB's have good numbers when they play not just Henry so that implies they have both a good OL and a great RB. we have neither.

It wouldn't be my preference to take a RB but if you're looking at him against guys at other positions you have rated much lower maybe you take him figuring he'll make an immediate improvement on the offense.

It's true every year but especially this one Keim HAS to nail this draft, the first 3-4 picks have to all be guys who are going to come in and help right away. We don't have a 5, it looks like because mullen isn't active we'll have a 6 and give a 7 for him. So he has to nail the first 4 picks you have to get at least 2 starters and 4 guys that are all active on Sunday IMO.
 

BritCard

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It's one season so I am not going to get all into this list other than Herbert, Mitchell, Gainwell, Williams, Hubbard, Stevenson and Carter are all contributors.

Hell, if you take the top 20 RBs in yards from scrimmage this year, only 5 were drafted in the first round.

But we don't want "contributors". We want a star do it all bell cow running back.

Eno is a "contributor". Do you want him starting? Not one of the guys you mentioned would anyone here be joyous to see come in as starting RB
 

Chopper0080

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But we don't want "contributors". We want a star do it all bell cow running back.

Eno is a "contributor". Do you want him starting? Not one of the guys you mentioned would anyone here be joyous to see come in as starting RB
Did you intentionally ignore the second sentence in that post?
 

BritCard

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Did you intentionally ignore the second sentence in that post?

I already posted the actual stats between 2003 and 2021 so yes, I did ignore the random current thing that is worse than that data.

But yet again, I'm only saying what I think the Cards might do.

I'd be fine with a round 2 running back but who? This class seems pretty weak to me. I don't see any Jonathan Taylors or Kenneth Walkers.

Zach Evans is currently the 3rd ranked RB in mock drafts and he has 680 yards this year and only 93 receiving. And he barely scrapes into the back end of the 2nd on average. This isn't a stacked class. Zach Charbonnet maybe?

We need some speed for sure. Nobody we have can break off a home run.
 
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Chopper0080

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Playing RB is one of the easiest positions to get on the field and make a change. Cards don't have a problem sitting rookies the last two 1st rd picks and the 2nd rd pick this year. It is often said the game is won in the trenches, but games are always won with a team scoring more points. Robinson gives the Cards a chance to score more points. Cards QB is the team's leading rusher
and there is a pro bowl type runner on the board why draft a OL DL player who may not play next year and sit the bench. With Brown and D-HOP and a good to great RB who can really stop that offense.
Drafting positions that shouldn't get a second contract, are dependent on another position group to be successful and are readily available is not a good formula for using first round picks on.

This is the Keim mentality of thinking he is the smartest guy in the room
 
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Krangodnzr

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I think this is overblown. There is this myth that you can find good multi threat backs in late rounds because of guys like Chris Carson.

For every Carson there are 30 no marks that never did a thing in the league.

This is the 2021 running back class. Outside of Elijah Mitchell who has really done anything outside the Top 3? Stevenson is just starting to contribute as a runner and I like Khalil Herbert but he only proves the point. or every Herbert there are 20 scrubs.

2021​
1​
1​
24​
24​
Najee Harris​
Steelers​
Alabama​
2​
1​
25​
25​
Travis Etienne​
Jaguars​
Clemson​
3​
2​
3​
35​
Javonte Williams​
Broncos​
North Carolina​
4​
3​
24​
88​
Trey Sermon​
49ers​
Ohio State​
5​
4​
2​
107​
Michael Carter​
Jets​
North Carolina​
6​
4​
14​
119​
Kene Nwangwu​
Vikings​
Iowa State​
7​
4​
15​
120​
Rhamondre Stevenson​
Patriots​
Oklahoma​
8​
4​
21​
126​
Chuba Hubbard​
Panthers​
Oklahoma State​
9​
5​
6​
150​
Kenneth Gainwell​
Eagles​
Memphis​
10​
5​
40​
184​
Ben Mason​
Ravens​
Michigan​
11​
6​
10​
194​
Elijah Mitchell​
49ers​
Louisiana-Lafayette​
12​
6​
12​
196​
Gary Brightwell​
Giants​
Arizona​
13​
6​
14​
198​
Larry Rountree​
Chargers​
Missouri​
14​
6​
18​
202​
Chris Evans​
Bengals​
Michigan​
15​
6​
27​
211​
Demetric Felton​
Browns​
UCLA​
16​
6​
33​
217​
Khalil Herbert​
Bears​
Virginia Tech​
17​
7​
5​
233​
Jake Funk​
Rams​
Maryland​
18​
7​
17​
244​
Gerrid Doaks​
Dolphins​
Cincinnati​
19​
7​
29​
256​
Kylin Hill​
Packers​
Mississippi State​
20​
7​
30​
257​
Jermar Jefferson​
Lions​
Oregon State​




I'm looking at all recent drafts and the chances of finding a good dual threat RB in later rounds is slim to none. Of ALL the running backs drafted there is Tony Pollard in round 4 of 2019. Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt and James Conner round 3 and Chris Carson round 7 of 2017. Kenyan Drake in 2016. David Johnson 2015.

It happens, but it's rare. You really have to pick no later than round 2 to have a decent shot.
I'd counter that you draft RBs regularly, and cycle through the guys that don't belong. Next draft, the Cardinals should look for another guy and cut the worst of the bunch.

If I'm a GM, I use 1st and 2nd round picks almost primarily on QB, Edge, OT, WR, and CB. I'd draft a receiver and RB nearly every draft, and a TE too.
 

Chopper0080

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I'd counter that you draft RBs regularly, and cycle through the guys that don't belong. Next draft, the Cardinals should look for another guy and cut the worst of the bunch.

If I'm a GM, I use 1st and 2nd round picks almost primarily on QB, Edge, OT, WR, and CB. I'd draft a receiver and RB nearly every draft, and a TE too.
And you probably will need to cycle through some because of the nature of the position.
 

NashDishesDimes

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No, cant stand watching Keim blowing picks on ‘weapons’. With kyler paid what he is, the offense should be more than good with the weapons it has
 

BritCard

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No, cant stand watching Keim blowing picks on ‘weapons’. With kyler paid what he is, the offense should be more than good with the weapons it has

I agree. But having invested so much in Kyler and with him playing so poorly their mindset is going to be "How do we get more from our $250m investment?"

I wouldn't take WR off the table either. Purely because we've seen Kyler with Hopkins so they need to think about a future Hopkins clone.
 

oaken1

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No they can't. See post above.

There was one year that produced a clutch of good round 3 running backs but for every one of them there are 20 busts or roster depth guys at best.
yes they can. screw the post above.
your ******** argues something never happens then shows proof that it does.
then reiterates the argument that it never happens.
 

Russ Smith

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I already posted the actual stats between 2003 and 2021 so yes, I did ignore the random current thing that is worse than that data.

But yet again, I'm only saying what I think the Cards might do.

I'd be fine with a round 2 running back but who? This class seems pretty weak to me. I don't see any Jonathan Taylors or Kenneth Walkers.

Zach Evans is currently the 3rd ranked RB in mock drafts and he has 680 yards this year and only 93 receiving. And he barely scrapes into the back end of the 2nd on average. This isn't a stacked class. Zach Charbonnet maybe?

We need some speed for sure. Nobody we have can break off a home run.

Charbonnet is a younger faster Conner. he's good but he runs upright and takes lots of big hits. Really good at UCLA but I would not pick him early in the draft.
 

TRW

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No chance. 1st round will be an ILB and 2nd round will be a receiver or TE. Nothing else to consider is there?
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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I think this is overblown. There is this myth that you can find good multi threat backs in late rounds because of guys like Chris Carson.

For every Carson there are 30 no marks that never did a thing in the league.

This is the 2021 running back class. Outside of Elijah Mitchell who has really done anything outside the Top 3? Stevenson is just starting to contribute as a runner and I like Khalil Herbert but he only proves the point. or every Herbert there are 20 scrubs.

2021​
1​
1​
24​
24​
Najee Harris​
Steelers​
Alabama​
2​
1​
25​
25​
Travis Etienne​
Jaguars​
Clemson​
3​
2​
3​
35​
Javonte Williams​
Broncos​
North Carolina​
4​
3​
24​
88​
Trey Sermon​
49ers​
Ohio State​
5​
4​
2​
107​
Michael Carter​
Jets​
North Carolina​
6​
4​
14​
119​
Kene Nwangwu​
Vikings​
Iowa State​
7​
4​
15​
120​
Rhamondre Stevenson​
Patriots​
Oklahoma​
8​
4​
21​
126​
Chuba Hubbard​
Panthers​
Oklahoma State​
9​
5​
6​
150​
Kenneth Gainwell​
Eagles​
Memphis​
10​
5​
40​
184​
Ben Mason​
Ravens​
Michigan​
11​
6​
10​
194​
Elijah Mitchell​
49ers​
Louisiana-Lafayette​
12​
6​
12​
196​
Gary Brightwell​
Giants​
Arizona​
13​
6​
14​
198​
Larry Rountree​
Chargers​
Missouri​
14​
6​
18​
202​
Chris Evans​
Bengals​
Michigan​
15​
6​
27​
211​
Demetric Felton​
Browns​
UCLA​
16​
6​
33​
217​
Khalil Herbert​
Bears​
Virginia Tech​
17​
7​
5​
233​
Jake Funk​
Rams​
Maryland​
18​
7​
17​
244​
Gerrid Doaks​
Dolphins​
Cincinnati​
19​
7​
29​
256​
Kylin Hill​
Packers​
Mississippi State​
20​
7​
30​
257​
Jermar Jefferson​
Lions​
Oregon State​




I'm looking at all recent drafts and the chances of finding a good dual threat RB in later rounds is slim to none. Of ALL the running backs drafted there is Tony Pollard in round 4 of 2019. Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt and James Conner round 3 and Chris Carson round 7 of 2017. Kenyan Drake in 2016. David Johnson 2015.

It happens, but it's rare. You really have to pick no later than round 2 to have a decent shot.
In that draft gainwell, Herbert, Mitchell, Hubbard, and Stephenson are now getting pretty run (if not injured).
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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But we don't want "contributors". We want a star do it all bell cow running back.

Eno is a "contributor". Do you want him starting? Not one of the guys you mentioned would anyone here be joyous to see come in as starting RB
I think Stephenson, Hubbard, Mitchell and Herbert could be a star if given the full backfield.
 

BritCard

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yes they can. screw the post above.
your ******** argues something never happens then shows proof that it does.
then reiterates the argument that it never happens.

Where did I say it didn't happen? I said the odds decreased the deeper you go in the draft. Like all positions.

This idea that there are Alvin Kamaras and David Johnsons in the 3rd or 4th round of every draft is a myth. For every one of them there are 20 Darrynton Evans or Royce Freemans.
 

BritCard

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Charbonnet is a younger faster Conner. he's good but he runs upright and takes lots of big hits. Really good at UCLA but I would not pick him early in the draft.

Reminds me of Conner too. That's why I mentioned him. He's a top 5 RB in this class. It isn't deep.

This isn't one of those classes where there are 3 or 4 really good RB's in round 2.
 
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sinsay

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Drafting positions that shouldn't get a second contract, are dependent on another position group to be successful and are readily available is not a good formula for using first round picks on.

This is the Keim mentality of thinking he is the smartest guy in the room
If your QB is the leading rusher you need a better RB. Robinson is the best RB in the draft.
 

Snakester

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False equivalency. Just because Adrian Peterson worked and Levi Brown didn't, doesn't mean it was a bad move. Good process, bad result which it would be even more in the current NFL game.
My point is that you always take the super star player over any other player no matter what your needs are. The Adrian Petersons of the world only come around once or twice a decade. I did think that Levi Brown was a good player for us.
 

Snakester

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Yeah I've watched Robinson get after the Sooner defense a few times. He's very good, but he's definitely, without question, not the next A. Peterson.
If he’s not then no I wouldn’t take him in the first round. The last few years I haven’t watched hardly any college games. I’ve been so tied up with my businesses it took up most of my time. Usually around January I would start YouTubing the top prospects to have some knowledge of them before the draft.
 

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