Badgers are massive underdogs in Big Ten Tournament semifinals vs. Michigan

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Mar 13, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) defends Wisconsin Badgers forward Aleksas Bieliauskas (32) during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

The No. 5 seed Wisconsin Badgers had an incredible 91-88 overtime victory over the No. 4 seed Illinois Fighting Illini on Friday, overcoming a 15-point deficit in the second half to win and advance in the Big Ten Tournament.

The game was reminiscent of Wisconsin’s first contest against Illinois, where they overcame a 12-point deficit in the second half to force overtime before ultimately winning 92-90 in a game that went down to the final shot.

Wisconsin has now picked up a nice four-game winning streak with victories over the Maryland Terrapins, Purdue Boilermakers, Washington Huskies, and now Illinois. Up next? A rematch with the No. 1 seed Michigan Wolverines, who escaped with a 71-67 win over the Ohio State Buckeyes on Friday.

The Badgers remain the only team to beat Michigan on the road this season, having won 91-88 back in January at the Crisler Center after a day of elite shooting. In that game, the Badgers were competitive throughout the first half, but did have to overcome a double-digit deficit to win, hitting 15 threes in the victory.

Michigan has been one of the most complete teams in the country and is primed for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They’re considered sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency and third in adjusted defensive efficiency by KenPom. But they have had a couple of close games since their loss to the Duke Blue Devils, winning by three against the Iowa Hawkeyes before their four-point win on Friday against Ohio State.

Wisconsin is showing that it’s as dangerous as any team in the country, but Michigan will be a tough test, especially without starting center Nolan Winter.

Heading into the game, though, Wisconsin is seen as a 12.5-point underdog, which is one of the largest spreads they’ve faced all year long. For reference, Michigan was a 12.5-point favorite against Ohio State and a 9.5-point road favorite against Iowa in recent games.

That comes after the Badgers were as high as 9.5-point underdogs against Illinois on Thursday, with the closing line settling at a 7.5-point underdog.

In the first game between Michigan and Wisconsin, the Wolverines were a 19.5-point favorite over the Badgers before ultimately losing. What outcome will we see here on Saturday?

Tip-off is set for 12:00 p.m. on CBS.

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