Arch Manning Falls Out of First Round in 2026 NFL Mock After Latest Development

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Nearly a calendar year separates us from the 2026 NFL Draft, but that won't stop pundits from debating where Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning lands as a professional. However, USA Today's Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz pumped the brakes on that analysis in his way-too-early mock draft.

"Arch Manning's omission from this forecast is intentional rather than an oversight," Middlehurst-Schwartz wrote. "While the Texas quarterback will no doubt be the focus of draft talk in the coming months, it's too difficult to peg whether he will be able to deliver on the unprecedented hype after just two starts.

"Perhaps equally as important, there's no guaranteeing that a passer who has been uncommonly patient in resisting the transfer portal while remaining a backup will feel any pressure to make the leap after next season."


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Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning.Scott Wachter-Imagn Images


Arch Manning remained in Austin despite holding the clipboard for his predecessor, Quinn Ewers, for two seasons. Manning has only two career starts under his belt as he enters this coming campaign. 247Sports' Chip Brown theorized last week that Manning could decide to stick around with head coach Steve Sarkisian for another season.

"But if history and his own approach to college football are any guide, Manning may be far more likely to stay at Texas beyond 2025 than to declare for the draft after one season as a full-time starter," Brown said.

Three other quarterbacks were taken in the first round of Middlehurst-Schwartz's projection. Penn State's Drew Allar went No. 1 overall to the Cleveland Browns — the mock-up was written before Kevin Stefanski's team took Colorado's Shedeur Sanders. LSU's Garrett Nussmeier landed with the New Orleans Saints via the No. 2 overall choice, and the Los Angeles Rams scooped up South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers at No. 30.

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