Analyzing UW’s Recruiting Ranking

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SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - MAY 1: Players run onto the field before the Washington Huskies' spring game at Husky Stadium on May 1, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Maddy Grassy/Getty Images for ONIT) | Getty Images for ONIT

After having a top-15 recruiting class for 2026, there are some Husky fans that have wondered why UW’s 2027 class is ranked lower-not even a top-20 class (as of now). There have been many theories proposed including having both the long snapper and punter in the 2027 class, more 4-stars ranked overall, and many more. The real reason is much simpler and I hope to make it easy to see.

Before diving into the details, 247Sports has changed the way it calculates team rankings. Prior to the 2027 class, the team rankings were based on the 247Sports Composite. Now, with the 2027 class (and beyond) it is based on the rankings by 247Sports. This turns out to be a factor in why UW’s 2027 class is ranked lower-but that is not the main reason.

Class Calculators​

There have been several articles written about how 247Sports generates the points for each team in its recruiting rankings. Here is one from the BYU 247Sports site from a few years ago: https://247sports.com/college/byu/article/how-are-247-recruiting-rankings-calculated-139730851/
The math behind the calculations are intimidating, especially for those who haven’t studied much math since high school. But you don’t need to understand much of the math; 247Sports makes a ‘Class Calculator’ available which can help to understand it better.

One of the main reasons for using the ‘Class Calculator’ is that you can also use it to do some ‘what if’ analyses-like what would happen if a recruit gets added or one is removed. But it can also help understand how the points for each team work because in it you can find the number of points each commit is contributing to the total score.

The current ‘Class Calculator’ for UW’s 2027 class can be found here: https://247sports.com/college/washington/season/2027-football/classcalculator/

2027 Comparison​

To help understand the rankings, it helps to compare the values for the ‘Class Calculator’ from different teams. UW is currently ranked #23 (or #22 depending on whether they were using the Composite ratings or the 247Sports ratings). So let’s compare how UW’s current class compares with a couple of other programs-in this case the #20 team (Penn State) and the #15 team (Virginia Tech). Virginia Tech has 234.81 points. Penn State has 228.98. And UW has 224.09.

Washington	Virginia Tech	Penn State
Last Name	Rating	Points	Last Name	Rating	Points	Last Name	Rating	Points
Gaylord	92	22.00	Bourque	94	24.00	Montgomery	94	24.00
Ioane	90	19.88	Karhoff	93	22.86	Tarawalie	94	23.85
Moore	90	19.51	Latell	91	20.49	Telfair	92	21.46
Tyson	90	18.92	Saunders	90	18.92	Blum	90	18.92
Nonu	90	18.12	Buchanan, J.	90	18.12	Terwiliger	90	18.12
Roskopf	90	17.14	Buchanan, K.	90	17.14	Guertin	90	17.14
Pope	89	15.21	Irvin	89	15.21	Alexander	89	15.21
Doyal	89	14.04	Johnson	89	14.04	Blattner	89	14.04
Gray	89	12.80	Perkins	89	12.80	Currie	89	12.80
Leilua	88	10.92	Barnett	89	11.52	Reily	88	10.92
Wily-Ava	88	9.71	Faniel	89	10.25	Betton	88	9.71
Walk-Green	88	8.53	Brown	89	9.00	Wood	88	8.53
Albright	88	7.40	Jones-Priest	89	7.81	Odoh	88	7.40
Williams	88	6.34	Butler	89	6.69	Robbins	88	6.34
Adeyanju	88	5.37	Moreland	88	5.37	Galette	87	5.07
Kennedy	88	4.49	Roberts	88	4.49	Cooper	87	4.24
Russell	87	3.50	Woods	88	3.71	Ceaser	87	3.50
Coach, J.	87	2.86	Morrison	88	3.02	Paiva	87	2.86
Coach, E.	87	2.30	Dozier	88	2.44	McGee	87	2.30
Sidney	87	1.83	Salster	88	1.94	Sassic	86	1.72
Uiagalelei	86	1.35	Wade	88	1.52	Powell	80	0.85
Osterman	86	0.99	Smart	87	1.12
Balke	80	0.50	Taylor	87	0.86
Logan	80	0.38	Washington	87	0.65
Frisby	87	0.49
Braham	87	0.36

If you look at the 4th through 9th rated players for each team (for UW that is Tyson, Nonu, Roskopf, Pope, Doyal, and Gray), you will see that the number of points that they are contributing is exactly the same. Not coincidentally, you’ll also notice that the corresponding ratings for those players are identical. The 4th, 5th, and 6th highest rated players for each team are rated a 90 and the 7th, 8th, and 9th are all rated a 89.

But if you look at the 10th highest rated player for each team (for UW that is Leilua), the points for UW and Penn State are the same, but the points are slightly higher for Virginia Tech. That’s because the rating for the UW and Penn State players are 88 while the Virginia Tech player is rated a 89. That continues for the 11th through 14th highest rated players (for UW, that is Wily-Ava, Walk-Green, Albright, and Williams).

With the 15th and 16th highest rated players, that changes. The players for UW (Adeyanju and Kennedy) have the same points (and ratings) as the players from Virginia Tech, but the ones from Penn State are slightly lower. The 17th, 18th, and 19th rated players have the same points for UW and Penn State, but are slightly higher for Virginia Tech.

At the bottoms of the lists you’ll notice a couple of things. First, the number of commits for each team is different. UW has 24 commits. Penn State has 21. And Virginia Tech has 26. So, Penn State has more total points than UW, but they have fewer commits. Virginia Tech has more points and more commits, but the additional 2 commits are contributing very little (less than 1 point) more for Virginia Tech (compared to UW). Also notice at the bottom that UW has 2 specialists, both with a rating of 80. Penn State also has one, but Virginia Tech does not. Despite Virginia Tech’s 24th rated player having a rating of 87 compared to UW’s at 80, Virginia Tech’s player added just 0.27 more than UW’s long snapper.

So, why does Virginia Tech have more than 10 total points more than UW? And why does Penn State have more total points than UW despite having fewer commits? The answers are at the top. The top 3 players for UW are contributing a total of 61.39 points. The top 3 players for Virginia Tech are contributing 67.35 points. And the top 3 for Penn State are contributing 69.31. And the reason is that the ratings for the top 3 players at Virginia Tech and Penn State are higher than the ratings for the top 3 at UW.

Overall, Virginia Tech has more points than UW for 3 reasons. First, they have more points from their top 3 recruits, they have more recruits in total (so points at the bottom), plus they have some higher rated players in the middle which are contributing more points. Despite having fewer commits, and slightly fewer points toward the bottom, Penn State has more total points than UW because of the recruits at the top which are contributing more than UW’s top 3.
[Note: In this exercise it was the case that it was the top 3 that were a major factor because the most of the players below that were rated similarly between the teams. But there is nothing special about the ‘top 3’ as far as the rankings go. It just happened that it was that top 3 that was a major difference between these 3 teams. Comparisons between other teams might show differences between the top 5 or top 10.]

2026 vs 2027 Comparison​

So, that may explain why UW is ranked where it is for the 2027 class, but does it explain why UW is ranked below some of the other teams this year. But why is UW’s 2027 class ranked so much lower than their 2026 class. Here’s a comparison using the ‘Class Calculators’. (The 2026 class is in the left 3 columns and the 2027 class is in the right 3 columns.)

Last Name	Rating	Points	Last Name	Rating	Points
Greene	98	28.00	Gaylord	92	22.00
Day	95	24.85	Ioane	90	19.88
Hill	95	24.39	Moore	90	19.51
Colman-Brusa	94	22.70	Tyson	90	18.92
Clay	94	21.74	Nonu	90	18.12
Bonner	94	20.57	Roskopf	90	17.14
Duncan	92	17.62	Pope	89	15.21
Fruean	92	16.26	Doyal	89	14.04
Davis	92	14.82	Gray	89	12.80
James	91	12.74	Leilua	88	10.92
Jones	90	10.79	Wily-Ava	88	9.71
Umu-Cais	89	9.00	Walk-Green	88	8.53
Schwerzel	88	7.40	Albright	88	7.40
Zammit	88	6.34	Williams	88	6.34
Harris	88	5.37	Adeyanju	88	5.37
Aumua	88	4.49	Kennedy	88	4.49
Sanoe	87	3.50	Russell	87	3.50
Durr	87	2.86	Coach, J.	87	2.86
Peko	87	2.30	Coach, E.	87	2.30
Tokio	87	1.83	Sidney	87	1.83
Vyhlidal	87	1.44	Uiagalelei	86	1.35
Jiles	86	1.05	Osterman	86	0.99
LaVista	86	0.81	Balke	80	0.50
Malu	85	0.57	Logan	80	0.38
Yang	85	0.43
Wallace	80	0.21

UW’s 2026 class had a total of 262.08 points. The 2027 class currently has 224.09. While UW had more commits in the 2026 class, the bottom two from the 2026 class contribute a combined 0.64 points. That is clearly not the difference.

Instead, notice that UW’s 2026 class had 6 players rated higher than anyone in the 2027 class. Plus, the top 12 players in the 2026 class are all rated higher than the top 12 in the 2027 class. The difference with the rest of the classes is just over 1 point total.

Final Thoughts​

UW’s 2027 class is still very good, despite where it is currently ranked. But it is ranked where it is compared to the other teams because it currently does not have as many of the top-rated recruits in the country. So, just adding more will not increase UW’s points (and ranking)-unless, of course, they are some of the highest-rated players (top 100, for example). Most of those are already committed, so that would require some flips.

One possible flip candidate that has been mentioned is WR Osani Gayles. Using the ‘Class Calculator’, if UW were to flip Gayles, their total points would increase to 234.77, which would put them just behind Virginia Tech. And to further illustrate how 247Sports does their calculations, here is a look at UW’s 2027 class with and without Gayles (left 3 columns is without and right 3 with Gayles).

Last Name	Rating	Points	Last Name	Rating	Points
Gayles	98	28.39
Gaylord	92	22	Gaylord	92	21.86
Ioane	90	19.88	Ioane	90	19.51
Moore	90	19.51	Moore	90	18.92
Tyson	90	18.92	Tyson	90	18.12
Nonu	90	18.12	Nonu	90	17.14
Roskopf	90	17.14	Roskopf	90	16.01
Pope	89	15.21	Pope	89	14.04
Doyal	89	14.04	Doyal	89	12.80
Gray	89	12.8	Gray	89	11.52
Leilua	88	10.92	Leilua	88	9.71
Wily-Ava	88	9.71	Wily-Ava	88	8.53
Walk-Green	88	8.53	Walk-Green	88	7.40
Albright	88	7.4	Albright	88	6.34
Williams	88	6.34	Williams	88	5.37
Adeyanju	88	5.37	Adeyanju	88	4.49
Kennedy	88	4.49	Kennedy	88	3.71
Russell	87	3.5	Russell	87	2.86
Coach, J.	87	2.86	Coach, J.	87	2.30
Coach, E.	87	2.3	Coach, E.	87	1.83
Sidney	87	1.83	Sidney	87	1.44
Uiagalelei	86	1.35	Uiagalelei	86	1.05
Osterman	86	0.99	Osterman	86	0.76
Balke	80	0.5	Balke	80	0.38
Logan	80	0.38	Logan	80	0.29

I lined up the players so they are in the same row for each. As you can see, once Gayles is added, each other player has their points reduced. But, that is more than offset by the huge increase that Gayles brings.

The other way for UW’s ranking to move up is if the ratings of some of the current players increases. The ratings for all of the players could change a couple of times between now and signing day. Last year there were several of UW’s commits that had their ratings improve significantly between this time last year and the final ratings. Gavin Day went from a 90 to a 95. And JD Hill went from a 86 to a 95. It’s hard to say if any of UW’s current commits will get a bump up of anything close to those. But, the UW staff seems to have a good eye for talent evaluation, so it is entirely possible that a few could make some jumps. With UW just 5 points away from 20th and 10 points from 15th, a few decent-sized jumps could be enough to propel UW close to #15. However, without a top recruit like Kodi Greene was in the 2026 class, it may not be reasonable to expect a ranking as high as the 2026 team.

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