- Joined
- May 8, 2002
- Posts
- 1,269,167
- Reaction score
- 59
The Hall of Fame Game is over, there are under 30 days left until the start of the NFL season, and the FTN Football Almanac is well-creased on our shelves. It’s time to turn our attention to this upcoming season and predict some over/unders! It’s always good to get our takes down and on the record before the season begins, so we can look back at just how well we did. Why, at this time last year, we were wondering if anyone could challenge the Bills in the AFC East, if the Colts were crazy for riding with Daniel Jones and if Matthew Stafford would ever emerge from his Hyperspace Cryopod. Suffice to say, we’ve had our crystal balls in the shop this offseason.
We’re kicking things off with the AFC South, because that’s where our most noteworthy projection is! The Houston Texans have one of the league’s best defenses, and that’s agreed upon by nearly everyone with functioning eyes. That number may be fewer than you think, however, because after watching C.J. Stroud’s performances in the playoffs, many of those viewers attempted to clean out their eyes with bleach and/or some sort of acid. Still, our projections have the Texans top in the AFC and third in line in Super Bowl odds behind the two NFC West powerhouses. That’s a pretty big limb to go out on! Not “the Texans will be good,” because they were good last year and have made steps to get better. But not just a good team, but the good team? Whoof.
Elsewhere in the division, the Jaguars seem to have turned their decision making over to an LLM of some description; the Titans have turned their decision making over to the finest collection of bald men New York no longer needs, and the Colts have turned their decision making over to the ghost of Dave Gettleman. So maybe the Texans’ path to the division title is clearer than it looks at first glance. Vegas has Houston as the favorite, sure, but not a prohibitive one – they’re at +110 right now, with the Jaguars trailing behind at +245. So, do I go out on a limb with the book and put my money where our proverbial mouth is, or will I be a bit more reserved? Let’s go down the line and find out, shall we?
And remember, you can search for the best odds on these, or any other props with our Prop Shop.
I know that defense is less predictive from year to year, but I just sit back and look at what Houston throws at people, and I struggle to find where the breakdown is going to be. Aaron Schatz suggested on the Schatz and Tanier podcast that defenses with fewer moving parts – defenses that sit back and just beat you with sheer talent – might be less inclined to drop off season over season than others, and that’s what the Texans give you. This isn’t Brian Flores scheme-based wizardry; DeMeco Ryans isn’t sitting in a lab somewhere cooking up exotic blitzes or figuring out ways to baffle opposing quarterbacks. It’s quite simple, really. He’s going to rush four of five of his guys in front, drop his defensive backs into coverage, and dare you to beat them.
And most teams can’t do that! You line up, look out, and see the best pass rush duo in the league in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. and the top secondary in the league covering your guys, and what do you do? Try to pick on Henry To’oTo’o? Good luck with running your entire offense through that. At some point, to beat the Texans, you have to beat a top-tier defender somewhere; there aren’t any easy outs against these guys. I like offense, I prefer watching offensive teams play, but there’s something beautiful about a defense just lining up and clobbering you. They were second in defensive DVOA last season, projected to be second again this season, and I’m struggling to come up with a reason not to believe that other than a vague, handwavy “any given Sunday” sort of thing, which is as useless as it is technically accurate.
Am I concerned about the offense? Yes, I did watch the postseason collapse, with Stroud having two of the worst 20-odd playoff games ever back-to-back. I’m willing to let a little bit of that be mitigated because of the injuries around him, and it was just a weird break from the way he had played throughout the 2025 season as a whole. No, the Texans’ offense wasn’t exciting and it felt like it too often ran into roadblocks, but the usual Texans offense fail state during the regular season was a lot of failed plays, three and outs and punts – not an ideal strategy, but one that can work when your defense is devouring souls. Stroud raised his floor significant during the regular season, only to throw that out the window once the playoffs started. I think I’ll trust the larger sample size of what we saw in the regular season over the nightmare that was January! They’ve also brought David Montgomery in as they continue to attempt to discover what a “running game” can be, and it looks like Tank Dell will be back and give them a second option next to Nico Collins. I think our projections in the Almanac are too strong – we have them projected seventh overall on offense – but I absolutely see the path to adequate here, and adequate offense plus world-beating defense equals a lot of wins, and “check back in the Divisional Round.”
Strongest Position: Cornerbacks! I’d say secondary as a whole, but Reed Blankenship is bland enough that I’ll limit it to the trio of Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter and Jalen Pitre. It’s the strongest group in the AFC, at least, and the strongest established group in the NFL, as the Rams’ attempt to purchase a functioning secondary looks promising but is as of yet untested.
Weakest Position: Sorry, C.J. Stroud, I’ve got to go with quarterback until we have at least one (1) game since your playoff meltdown. I still think it’s entirely plausible that we’ll see a return of rookie Stroud at some point here with the return of Dell and a functioning running game, but if the Texans had had even replacement level QB play, they would have made the AFC Championship and probably the Super Bowl; Stroud has to wear that until he gets past it.
Biggest Question: Nick Caley, can you have one (1) idea after the offense gets stopped? When the initial gameplan was going well in 2025, the Texans offense was just fine. But it felt like there were no adjustments, nothing in a bag of tricks when things got difficult. “Count on Stroud to do something amazing” is not enough; we need to see how the offense is going to use Montgomery and the returning Dell and other things other than just hoping Stroud can will them to victory.
Verdict: Oh, all the way over9.5. I think 10-13 wins is the reasonable range of outcomes for Houston; the 25th-75th percentile without things going particularly badly or particularly well. In fact, given the line at 9.5 was -146 at time of writing, I’d be willing to add an extra win, going to over 10.5 at +130. I think the extra win is more than paid off by the better line there, and I don’t find it hard at all to find 11 wins on the Texans’ schedule.
I don’t buy that 2026 Daniel Jones will be as good as 2025 Daniel Jones. Fortunately, he doesn’t have to be to get over this line.
Through the first six weeks of 2025, Jones was on pace to have the single best performance under pressure we had ever recorded. That, predictably, came crashing back down to earth – Jones isn’t particularly awful at dealing with pressure or anything, but he was skating by with unsustainable luck. That’s a big part of what propelled Indianapolis to their hot start last season, and they completely bought into it, trading two first-round picks for Sauce Gardner. But Jones was already coming back down to Earth before he got hurt. They probably still make the playoffs if he’s healthy and they don’t have to throw the earthly remains of Philip Rivers into emergency action, but expecting a repeat of the story of the year September player is … really not backed up by anything other than hopes and dreams.
Jones was typically a below-average starter in New York. Not someone worth benching; just overpaid. It’s entirely plausible that with Shane Steichen calling plays and Jonathan Taylor carrying the ball and the general better state the Colts are in than his Giants that that ceiling will be raised to average, possibly even into the realms of “good.” To see the line plummeting all the way to 7.5 wins – down from last year’s eight wins, even after punting the last month of the season on backup quarterbacks – feels way overly pessimistic to me. Taylor has an argument as the best running back in football. The offensive line is the best in the division, at least on the left side – I’m scared about Jalen Travis at right tackle, but nobody’s perfect. On the other side of the ball, the idea of a healthy Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward actually playing at the same time is tantalizing; we didn’t get to see any of that in 2025. The defense as a whole is undergoing a bit of a youth movement and refresh, but you still have DeForest Buckner and Laiatu Latu; there’s talent here. To get down to double-digit losses, and under the 7.5-win mark, would feel like something fairly significant has gone wrong somewhere; a major injury or absolute crumbling of Jones.
I’m not on board with the idea of the Colts as major contenders, mind you – they’re a middle of the pack team who will be punching towards a wildcard slot, and the idea that last year’s 8-2 start is going to roll over into a contender in 2026 is a pipe dream. But for every Colts fan I find who thinks that they’re going to roll right back into the postseason, there’s five national fans who expect them to crater, and I think they’re pushing the line too low.
Strongest Position: Running back. Jonathan Taylor is a beast, worth every penny of his latest extension. I’m worried a bit about the depth behind him, but the Colts don’t really use the depth behind him; Taylor is one of the last true bell cow backs in the league. If he gets hurt, the Colts are in trouble, but it’s not like the Colts are just drowning in depth elsewhere.
Weakest Position: Off-ball linebacker, and the center of their defense in general. Zaire Franklin and Germaine Pratt are gone, so they’re counting on second-round rookie CJ Allen and Arizona cap casualty Akeem Davis-Gaither to hold down the fort. Allen’s got potential, but there are going to be some growing pains as this mini defensive rebuild kicks off.
Biggest Question: Uh, Jones. Both in terms of how he recovers from injury and just how much of 2025 was real. Jones may have the widest range of outcomes for any veteran starter in 2026, and while I think he’ll be OK, there is disaster potential here.
Verdict: I’m over 7.5. You could talk me into going up a win while Joines continues to appear to be in the best shape of his life or whatever, but I think I’m fine taking the -140 odds and just leaving it right here.
Oh, I hated the Jaguars offseason.
The Jaguars made no real attempt to better themselves this offseason. There’s a hint of an idea there – Liam Coen and Anthony Campanile did a great job in their first year in charge, so just consolidate those gains and build from there. Fine! It’s a good base for building on. But just relying on them squeezing more out of the same group of players isn’t a plan; it’s hope. When you see a team make as big of a jump as the Jaguars did between 2024 and 2025, that’s generally a combination of improved skill and improved luck. Well, luck doesn’t last from year to year. They’re not likely to finish second in defensive turnovers once again. They’re not likely to be as fortunate in one-score games as they were a year ago. The hot streak that ended the year? There’s no correlation between second-half improvement and the next year’s performance; those first half games count, too. The Jaguars were just 5-4 in the first half of the season before they went on a hot streak; they’re not going to be hot all the time.
The way you fight against regression is to identify the weak parts on your roster and improve them. The Jaguars explicitly chose not to that this offseason, with GM James Gladstone stating that he was more concerned about accumulating 2027 compensatory draft picks than wading into free agency or making moves to shore up a draft class that was missing a top pick because of the Travis Hunter experiment. Jacksonville and Seattle are the only teams that have no new starters coming in from outside the franchise, and the Seahawks can justify that by pointing to the Super Bowl rings. Re-assembling a wildcard losing team and deciding it’s good enough is a bold choice.
And, of course, they’re not just reassembling it. They lost Devin Lloyd; they lost Travis Etienne Jr. – it’s an inferior version of the team we saw last year. In terms of improvement, you’re talking about an over-drafted blocking tight end and a rotational running back free agent. I’d love for them to make me eat my words. I’d love for Trevor Lawrence to pick up where he left off to end last season, finally looking like the top pick we were promised since he picked up a football in Pop Warner. I’d love for Campanile’s defense to make another step forward; that might have been the biggest surprise of 2025. I’d love for Travis Hunter to actually succeed as a two-way player – or a one-way player, or any kind of coherent plan behind the back and forth and confusion we got this offseason. I just am a doubter.
Strongest Position: I think, finally, it is in fact the quarterback and Trevor Lawrence. I’ve never been a huge Lawrence fan, but things finally started turning around towards the end of last year, and credit has to go where credit is due. I need him to keep that up before I put him in the top 15 quarterbacks, much less the top 10, and we’ve seen Lawrence have three or four good games in a row and then come crashing back down before. This time feels different. This time feels more sustainable. And the best way to prove me wrong about the Jaguars this year would be for Lawrence to be December Lawrence for 20 weeks, and not just four.
Weakest Position: That running back corps is dire. With Etienne gone, we’re looking at Bhayshul Tuten, Chris Rodriguez, LeQuint Allen Jr. and Ameer Abdullah fighting for snaps. The dream is for Tuten to be the explosive guy and Rodriguez to be the physical power guy; a thunder and lightning style attack. That would require a massive breakout year from Tuten, and it feels like Jacksonville assembled the room assuming it would happen. You can’t accuse them of not being bold.
Biggest Question: Travis Hunter was supposed to “challenge the boundaries of the game of football,” per James Gladstone’s comments when he was drafted. Instead, the Jaguars got significantly better when he was hurt and out of the lineup – rookie learning curves continue to exist. After some confusion and rumors that stated that Hunter was going to focus full time on being a cornerback, the Jaguars came out and insisted that no, Hunter was going to play both ways once more. OK. Can he learn one position well enough to be worth starting? Asking anyone to develop simultaneously in two different roles is tough. If it works out, Hunter will be one of the most interesting players in decades. If not, then the Jaguars are weighing down two spots with sub-optimal play.
Verdict: Honestly, I’m staying away at 8.5. You could sell me going with the under if we push it up at all – under 9.5 is at -146, which isn’t so bad. I don’t think they’re going to be dreadful, though, so I could go with the over if we push the line down – over 7.5 is at -220. It’s a bet I wouldn’t touch, but that defeats the point of a prediction article so… over 8.5. Somewhere between 8-10 wins feels about right for this team; I don’t think the bad days before Coen came on are coming back. I just wish they viewed themselves as an 8–10-win team and not a Super Bowl contender.
I’m more than fine with Robert Saleh getting another chance at head coaching somewhere. He’s built defenses from scratch at two separate locations, and I think it’s safe to say that some degree of the chaos in New York was outside his control. Sometimes, you just have to hold on to the whirlwind and pray you’re not thrown off, and Saleh wasn’t able to do that. A stint as a coordinator somewhere to rejuvenate his reputation, some time to reflect on the mistakes he did make and can correct, and another chance in the hot seat seems more than fair.
But really, just one year in San Francisco, and he gets another job? Not a particularly good year, either, though he was hampered by everyone worth noting spending roughly 30 weeks on the injured list. It just seems a little desperate for Tennessee to pull him back into the head coaching role so quickly. I get that the McVay/Shannahan offensive disciple crew is beginning to get a little thin on the ground, but bringing in both Saleh and Brian Daboll, the last two fired head coaches in New York, is not an overly inspiring start to a new era in Tennessee.
Daboll’s past track record with offenses isn’t great, apart from the one notable and massive outlier of Josh Allen’s development and success. If he can pull that trick again, that’s fantastic; a huge jump from Cam Ward is needed to get this offense moving. Ward needs someone to help him with his delivery and mechanics, bringing out consistency and helping craft the offense to meet his particular skills. Is that person Daboll? He’s only had three seasons (out of 12) with a positive offensive DVOA, and his track record sans Allen is very bad indeed. We’ve already heard stories of accuracy struggles and offensive inconsistency coming out of camp, and that has me worried. It’s the time of year for optimism to flow freely, and it’s just not coming out that way out of Tennessee camp. Add in the problems on the offensive line (outside of Peter Skoronski), and a lack of playmaking talent, and I have significant doubts the Titans offense will take the leap it needs to take. I think the defense might find the heady heights of average – Saleh called pretty much everyone he knew, and the roster is filled with Good Enough players form his previous stints. And I do think, as a whole, the operation will be more polished and functional than the Callahan regime ever was. I just don’t see what I need to see to get them out of the bottom in the division.
Strongest Position: Wide receiver. Carnell Tate and Calvin Ridley give them two WR2 types, and Wan’Dale Robinson will catch roughly one million passes for 1.5 million yards; no one makes a failed reception quite like Robinson does. It’s a big step forward from last year’s group of Elic Ayomanor, Chimere Dike and Van Jefferson. Frankly, it’s a better group than some contenders have; I suspect the Bills would strongly consider swapping their corps for Tennessee’s. I don’t see a WR1 in this group, but every little bit of improvement should help Ward.
Weakest Position: It’s quarterback until proven otherwise. Ward ranked 36th out of 38 quarterbacks in DYAR and 33rd in DVOA. There’s more potential at quarterback than at, say, safety or the running back room, but potential doesn’t translate into wins – production does. The Titans’ short-term hopes ride on Ward’s arm, and until he can perform at an NFL level, that’s going to be the point of scrutiny.
Biggest Question: Can Saleh pull off his third defensive rebuild, but faster this time? Saleh’s defenses got good in year three in San Francisco, jumping from a 4.3% DVOA in 2018 to a -20.3% DVOA in 2019. He pulled it off in two in New York, going from 16.8% in 2021 to -9.5% in 2022. Brian Callahan didn’t get two full seasons. Mike Mularkey didn’t get three. Amy Adams Strunk has shown a very quick hook if you don’t get immediate results, so the pressure is on for Saleh to work immediate turnaround magic on his side of the ball while the Ward experiment continues.
Verdict: It’s under 6.5 (-115) for me. I do think I’d chicken out and push these odds a little further – you can get under 7.5 at -186 or under 8.5 at -320, and I’m more comfortable at either of those spots. A 7-10 season isn’t crazy here, and I’d hate to lose on my bet because the Titans played a resting Houston in Week 18 or something. But I don’t see a path to a winning season in Tennessee barring the Ward one-year turnaround. Crazier things have happened! But I wouldn’t bet on them.
Continue reading...
We’re kicking things off with the AFC South, because that’s where our most noteworthy projection is! The Houston Texans have one of the league’s best defenses, and that’s agreed upon by nearly everyone with functioning eyes. That number may be fewer than you think, however, because after watching C.J. Stroud’s performances in the playoffs, many of those viewers attempted to clean out their eyes with bleach and/or some sort of acid. Still, our projections have the Texans top in the AFC and third in line in Super Bowl odds behind the two NFC West powerhouses. That’s a pretty big limb to go out on! Not “the Texans will be good,” because they were good last year and have made steps to get better. But not just a good team, but the good team? Whoof.
Elsewhere in the division, the Jaguars seem to have turned their decision making over to an LLM of some description; the Titans have turned their decision making over to the finest collection of bald men New York no longer needs, and the Colts have turned their decision making over to the ghost of Dave Gettleman. So maybe the Texans’ path to the division title is clearer than it looks at first glance. Vegas has Houston as the favorite, sure, but not a prohibitive one – they’re at +110 right now, with the Jaguars trailing behind at +245. So, do I go out on a limb with the book and put my money where our proverbial mouth is, or will I be a bit more reserved? Let’s go down the line and find out, shall we?
And remember, you can search for the best odds on these, or any other props with our Prop Shop.
Houston Texans (9.5)
I know that defense is less predictive from year to year, but I just sit back and look at what Houston throws at people, and I struggle to find where the breakdown is going to be. Aaron Schatz suggested on the Schatz and Tanier podcast that defenses with fewer moving parts – defenses that sit back and just beat you with sheer talent – might be less inclined to drop off season over season than others, and that’s what the Texans give you. This isn’t Brian Flores scheme-based wizardry; DeMeco Ryans isn’t sitting in a lab somewhere cooking up exotic blitzes or figuring out ways to baffle opposing quarterbacks. It’s quite simple, really. He’s going to rush four of five of his guys in front, drop his defensive backs into coverage, and dare you to beat them.
And most teams can’t do that! You line up, look out, and see the best pass rush duo in the league in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. and the top secondary in the league covering your guys, and what do you do? Try to pick on Henry To’oTo’o? Good luck with running your entire offense through that. At some point, to beat the Texans, you have to beat a top-tier defender somewhere; there aren’t any easy outs against these guys. I like offense, I prefer watching offensive teams play, but there’s something beautiful about a defense just lining up and clobbering you. They were second in defensive DVOA last season, projected to be second again this season, and I’m struggling to come up with a reason not to believe that other than a vague, handwavy “any given Sunday” sort of thing, which is as useless as it is technically accurate.
Am I concerned about the offense? Yes, I did watch the postseason collapse, with Stroud having two of the worst 20-odd playoff games ever back-to-back. I’m willing to let a little bit of that be mitigated because of the injuries around him, and it was just a weird break from the way he had played throughout the 2025 season as a whole. No, the Texans’ offense wasn’t exciting and it felt like it too often ran into roadblocks, but the usual Texans offense fail state during the regular season was a lot of failed plays, three and outs and punts – not an ideal strategy, but one that can work when your defense is devouring souls. Stroud raised his floor significant during the regular season, only to throw that out the window once the playoffs started. I think I’ll trust the larger sample size of what we saw in the regular season over the nightmare that was January! They’ve also brought David Montgomery in as they continue to attempt to discover what a “running game” can be, and it looks like Tank Dell will be back and give them a second option next to Nico Collins. I think our projections in the Almanac are too strong – we have them projected seventh overall on offense – but I absolutely see the path to adequate here, and adequate offense plus world-beating defense equals a lot of wins, and “check back in the Divisional Round.”
Strongest Position: Cornerbacks! I’d say secondary as a whole, but Reed Blankenship is bland enough that I’ll limit it to the trio of Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter and Jalen Pitre. It’s the strongest group in the AFC, at least, and the strongest established group in the NFL, as the Rams’ attempt to purchase a functioning secondary looks promising but is as of yet untested.
Weakest Position: Sorry, C.J. Stroud, I’ve got to go with quarterback until we have at least one (1) game since your playoff meltdown. I still think it’s entirely plausible that we’ll see a return of rookie Stroud at some point here with the return of Dell and a functioning running game, but if the Texans had had even replacement level QB play, they would have made the AFC Championship and probably the Super Bowl; Stroud has to wear that until he gets past it.
Biggest Question: Nick Caley, can you have one (1) idea after the offense gets stopped? When the initial gameplan was going well in 2025, the Texans offense was just fine. But it felt like there were no adjustments, nothing in a bag of tricks when things got difficult. “Count on Stroud to do something amazing” is not enough; we need to see how the offense is going to use Montgomery and the returning Dell and other things other than just hoping Stroud can will them to victory.
Verdict: Oh, all the way over9.5. I think 10-13 wins is the reasonable range of outcomes for Houston; the 25th-75th percentile without things going particularly badly or particularly well. In fact, given the line at 9.5 was -146 at time of writing, I’d be willing to add an extra win, going to over 10.5 at +130. I think the extra win is more than paid off by the better line there, and I don’t find it hard at all to find 11 wins on the Texans’ schedule.
Indianapolis Colts (7.5)
You must be registered for see images attach
I don’t buy that 2026 Daniel Jones will be as good as 2025 Daniel Jones. Fortunately, he doesn’t have to be to get over this line.
Through the first six weeks of 2025, Jones was on pace to have the single best performance under pressure we had ever recorded. That, predictably, came crashing back down to earth – Jones isn’t particularly awful at dealing with pressure or anything, but he was skating by with unsustainable luck. That’s a big part of what propelled Indianapolis to their hot start last season, and they completely bought into it, trading two first-round picks for Sauce Gardner. But Jones was already coming back down to Earth before he got hurt. They probably still make the playoffs if he’s healthy and they don’t have to throw the earthly remains of Philip Rivers into emergency action, but expecting a repeat of the story of the year September player is … really not backed up by anything other than hopes and dreams.
Jones was typically a below-average starter in New York. Not someone worth benching; just overpaid. It’s entirely plausible that with Shane Steichen calling plays and Jonathan Taylor carrying the ball and the general better state the Colts are in than his Giants that that ceiling will be raised to average, possibly even into the realms of “good.” To see the line plummeting all the way to 7.5 wins – down from last year’s eight wins, even after punting the last month of the season on backup quarterbacks – feels way overly pessimistic to me. Taylor has an argument as the best running back in football. The offensive line is the best in the division, at least on the left side – I’m scared about Jalen Travis at right tackle, but nobody’s perfect. On the other side of the ball, the idea of a healthy Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward actually playing at the same time is tantalizing; we didn’t get to see any of that in 2025. The defense as a whole is undergoing a bit of a youth movement and refresh, but you still have DeForest Buckner and Laiatu Latu; there’s talent here. To get down to double-digit losses, and under the 7.5-win mark, would feel like something fairly significant has gone wrong somewhere; a major injury or absolute crumbling of Jones.
I’m not on board with the idea of the Colts as major contenders, mind you – they’re a middle of the pack team who will be punching towards a wildcard slot, and the idea that last year’s 8-2 start is going to roll over into a contender in 2026 is a pipe dream. But for every Colts fan I find who thinks that they’re going to roll right back into the postseason, there’s five national fans who expect them to crater, and I think they’re pushing the line too low.
Strongest Position: Running back. Jonathan Taylor is a beast, worth every penny of his latest extension. I’m worried a bit about the depth behind him, but the Colts don’t really use the depth behind him; Taylor is one of the last true bell cow backs in the league. If he gets hurt, the Colts are in trouble, but it’s not like the Colts are just drowning in depth elsewhere.
Weakest Position: Off-ball linebacker, and the center of their defense in general. Zaire Franklin and Germaine Pratt are gone, so they’re counting on second-round rookie CJ Allen and Arizona cap casualty Akeem Davis-Gaither to hold down the fort. Allen’s got potential, but there are going to be some growing pains as this mini defensive rebuild kicks off.
Biggest Question: Uh, Jones. Both in terms of how he recovers from injury and just how much of 2025 was real. Jones may have the widest range of outcomes for any veteran starter in 2026, and while I think he’ll be OK, there is disaster potential here.
Verdict: I’m over 7.5. You could talk me into going up a win while Joines continues to appear to be in the best shape of his life or whatever, but I think I’m fine taking the -140 odds and just leaving it right here.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8.5)
Oh, I hated the Jaguars offseason.
The Jaguars made no real attempt to better themselves this offseason. There’s a hint of an idea there – Liam Coen and Anthony Campanile did a great job in their first year in charge, so just consolidate those gains and build from there. Fine! It’s a good base for building on. But just relying on them squeezing more out of the same group of players isn’t a plan; it’s hope. When you see a team make as big of a jump as the Jaguars did between 2024 and 2025, that’s generally a combination of improved skill and improved luck. Well, luck doesn’t last from year to year. They’re not likely to finish second in defensive turnovers once again. They’re not likely to be as fortunate in one-score games as they were a year ago. The hot streak that ended the year? There’s no correlation between second-half improvement and the next year’s performance; those first half games count, too. The Jaguars were just 5-4 in the first half of the season before they went on a hot streak; they’re not going to be hot all the time.
The way you fight against regression is to identify the weak parts on your roster and improve them. The Jaguars explicitly chose not to that this offseason, with GM James Gladstone stating that he was more concerned about accumulating 2027 compensatory draft picks than wading into free agency or making moves to shore up a draft class that was missing a top pick because of the Travis Hunter experiment. Jacksonville and Seattle are the only teams that have no new starters coming in from outside the franchise, and the Seahawks can justify that by pointing to the Super Bowl rings. Re-assembling a wildcard losing team and deciding it’s good enough is a bold choice.
And, of course, they’re not just reassembling it. They lost Devin Lloyd; they lost Travis Etienne Jr. – it’s an inferior version of the team we saw last year. In terms of improvement, you’re talking about an over-drafted blocking tight end and a rotational running back free agent. I’d love for them to make me eat my words. I’d love for Trevor Lawrence to pick up where he left off to end last season, finally looking like the top pick we were promised since he picked up a football in Pop Warner. I’d love for Campanile’s defense to make another step forward; that might have been the biggest surprise of 2025. I’d love for Travis Hunter to actually succeed as a two-way player – or a one-way player, or any kind of coherent plan behind the back and forth and confusion we got this offseason. I just am a doubter.
Strongest Position: I think, finally, it is in fact the quarterback and Trevor Lawrence. I’ve never been a huge Lawrence fan, but things finally started turning around towards the end of last year, and credit has to go where credit is due. I need him to keep that up before I put him in the top 15 quarterbacks, much less the top 10, and we’ve seen Lawrence have three or four good games in a row and then come crashing back down before. This time feels different. This time feels more sustainable. And the best way to prove me wrong about the Jaguars this year would be for Lawrence to be December Lawrence for 20 weeks, and not just four.
Weakest Position: That running back corps is dire. With Etienne gone, we’re looking at Bhayshul Tuten, Chris Rodriguez, LeQuint Allen Jr. and Ameer Abdullah fighting for snaps. The dream is for Tuten to be the explosive guy and Rodriguez to be the physical power guy; a thunder and lightning style attack. That would require a massive breakout year from Tuten, and it feels like Jacksonville assembled the room assuming it would happen. You can’t accuse them of not being bold.
Biggest Question: Travis Hunter was supposed to “challenge the boundaries of the game of football,” per James Gladstone’s comments when he was drafted. Instead, the Jaguars got significantly better when he was hurt and out of the lineup – rookie learning curves continue to exist. After some confusion and rumors that stated that Hunter was going to focus full time on being a cornerback, the Jaguars came out and insisted that no, Hunter was going to play both ways once more. OK. Can he learn one position well enough to be worth starting? Asking anyone to develop simultaneously in two different roles is tough. If it works out, Hunter will be one of the most interesting players in decades. If not, then the Jaguars are weighing down two spots with sub-optimal play.
Verdict: Honestly, I’m staying away at 8.5. You could sell me going with the under if we push it up at all – under 9.5 is at -146, which isn’t so bad. I don’t think they’re going to be dreadful, though, so I could go with the over if we push the line down – over 7.5 is at -220. It’s a bet I wouldn’t touch, but that defeats the point of a prediction article so… over 8.5. Somewhere between 8-10 wins feels about right for this team; I don’t think the bad days before Coen came on are coming back. I just wish they viewed themselves as an 8–10-win team and not a Super Bowl contender.
Tennessee Titans (6.5)
You must be registered for see images attach
I’m more than fine with Robert Saleh getting another chance at head coaching somewhere. He’s built defenses from scratch at two separate locations, and I think it’s safe to say that some degree of the chaos in New York was outside his control. Sometimes, you just have to hold on to the whirlwind and pray you’re not thrown off, and Saleh wasn’t able to do that. A stint as a coordinator somewhere to rejuvenate his reputation, some time to reflect on the mistakes he did make and can correct, and another chance in the hot seat seems more than fair.
But really, just one year in San Francisco, and he gets another job? Not a particularly good year, either, though he was hampered by everyone worth noting spending roughly 30 weeks on the injured list. It just seems a little desperate for Tennessee to pull him back into the head coaching role so quickly. I get that the McVay/Shannahan offensive disciple crew is beginning to get a little thin on the ground, but bringing in both Saleh and Brian Daboll, the last two fired head coaches in New York, is not an overly inspiring start to a new era in Tennessee.
Daboll’s past track record with offenses isn’t great, apart from the one notable and massive outlier of Josh Allen’s development and success. If he can pull that trick again, that’s fantastic; a huge jump from Cam Ward is needed to get this offense moving. Ward needs someone to help him with his delivery and mechanics, bringing out consistency and helping craft the offense to meet his particular skills. Is that person Daboll? He’s only had three seasons (out of 12) with a positive offensive DVOA, and his track record sans Allen is very bad indeed. We’ve already heard stories of accuracy struggles and offensive inconsistency coming out of camp, and that has me worried. It’s the time of year for optimism to flow freely, and it’s just not coming out that way out of Tennessee camp. Add in the problems on the offensive line (outside of Peter Skoronski), and a lack of playmaking talent, and I have significant doubts the Titans offense will take the leap it needs to take. I think the defense might find the heady heights of average – Saleh called pretty much everyone he knew, and the roster is filled with Good Enough players form his previous stints. And I do think, as a whole, the operation will be more polished and functional than the Callahan regime ever was. I just don’t see what I need to see to get them out of the bottom in the division.
Strongest Position: Wide receiver. Carnell Tate and Calvin Ridley give them two WR2 types, and Wan’Dale Robinson will catch roughly one million passes for 1.5 million yards; no one makes a failed reception quite like Robinson does. It’s a big step forward from last year’s group of Elic Ayomanor, Chimere Dike and Van Jefferson. Frankly, it’s a better group than some contenders have; I suspect the Bills would strongly consider swapping their corps for Tennessee’s. I don’t see a WR1 in this group, but every little bit of improvement should help Ward.
Weakest Position: It’s quarterback until proven otherwise. Ward ranked 36th out of 38 quarterbacks in DYAR and 33rd in DVOA. There’s more potential at quarterback than at, say, safety or the running back room, but potential doesn’t translate into wins – production does. The Titans’ short-term hopes ride on Ward’s arm, and until he can perform at an NFL level, that’s going to be the point of scrutiny.
Biggest Question: Can Saleh pull off his third defensive rebuild, but faster this time? Saleh’s defenses got good in year three in San Francisco, jumping from a 4.3% DVOA in 2018 to a -20.3% DVOA in 2019. He pulled it off in two in New York, going from 16.8% in 2021 to -9.5% in 2022. Brian Callahan didn’t get two full seasons. Mike Mularkey didn’t get three. Amy Adams Strunk has shown a very quick hook if you don’t get immediate results, so the pressure is on for Saleh to work immediate turnaround magic on his side of the ball while the Ward experiment continues.
Verdict: It’s under 6.5 (-115) for me. I do think I’d chicken out and push these odds a little further – you can get under 7.5 at -186 or under 8.5 at -320, and I’m more comfortable at either of those spots. A 7-10 season isn’t crazy here, and I’d hate to lose on my bet because the Titans played a resting Houston in Week 18 or something. But I don’t see a path to a winning season in Tennessee barring the Ward one-year turnaround. Crazier things have happened! But I wouldn’t bet on them.
Continue reading...
