AFC South Preview And Odds - Who’s Gonna Ride To The Top?

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The AFC South will be a tug of war all year. Three of the four teams in the division are going to fight for the title. Houston is a clear favorite. Jacksonville and Indianapolis will be chasing. Tennessee looks to play spoiler. Questions at quarterback dominate the headlines throughout the South. Let’s take a look at how things will shake out.

Check out my NFC South preview here.

Odds courtesy of Caesar’s Sportsbook.

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HOUSTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 29: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans celebrates after a touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the fourth quarter of the game at NRG Stadium on September 29, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

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Houston Texans​

+135 to win the division
Win total 9.5 (-130)
Key additions: David Montgomery, Wyatt Teller, Evan Brown, Reed Blankenship
Key departures: Joe Mixon, Christian Kirk

The Texans are the clear favorite to win the South. The defense is dominant. Dynamic offense. Upgraded running game with the David Montgomery signing. Does C.J. Stroud rebound from a tough finish to 2025? He looked out of his depth against New England in the playoffs after a good performance in Pittsburgh. Houston must protect Stroud’s confidence in order to contend in the AFC. The defense can’t take a day off this year. They are as good as anyone and come playoff time will be counted on to cover any issues on offense. I like this team. They need to make a statement come playoff time.

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MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 08: Trevor Lawrence #16 and Brian Thomas Jr. #7 of the Jacksonville Jaguars celebrate after a touchdown during the second quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on September 08, 2024 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

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Jacksonville Jaguars​

+200 to win the division
Win total 8.5 (+110)
Key additions: Jakoby Meyers, Cole Van Lanen, Chris Rodriguez
Key departures: Travis Etienne, Devin Lloyd, Greg Newsone II

I’d like to see more consistency from this franchise. One good year, four bad ones. It’s been the Jaguar’s history since the beginning. The trend is up for this team. No quarterback issues here unless Trevor Lawrence gets hurt. Brian Thomas Jr. is a number one receiver. The loss of Etienne will hurt. Can Travis Hunter provide some production to take up the slack? Maybe. His rookie season was uninspring.

The running game is a big question. Lawrence may have to throw the ball 35 times a game. The defense is serviceable. Jacksonville may not win the division but should make the playoffs. History says the Jaguars make some noise in the postseason. Liam Coen is an offensive genius so he will give the offense opportunities to succeed. The Jaguars could be a sleeper in the AFC.

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INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - OCTOBER 26: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts celebrates after scoring a rushing touchdown against the Tennessee Titans during the fourth quarter in the game at Lucas Oil Stadium on October 26, 2025 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

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Indianapolis Colts​

+380 to win the division
Win total 8.5 (+126)
Key additions: Micheal Clemons, Arden Key, Jerry Tillery
Key departures: Michael Pittman Jr., Braden Smith

Daniel Jones and his health will determine the Colts’ fate, to a degree. Michael Pittman is gone from a wide receiver group that wasn’t one of the league’s best to begin with. What the Colts do have is one of the very best running backs in football in Jonathan Taylor. He has a lot of gas in the tank and Indianapolis will ride him until the wheels fall off. Jones was enjoying a career resurgence until his injury last sesaon which sent the Colts into the corral.

Here’s hoping he recovers fully and gets back to the form that sparked optimism among Colts fans. The defense has been retooled and the interior is the strength. The back seven is a question mark. Other than Taylor, the bottom line is there just aren’t enough dynamic playmakers to give Indianapolis a solid shot at competing for the division and/or the playoffs.

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NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - NOVEMBER 02: Cody Barton #50 of the Tennessee Titans returns a interception for a touchdown in the first quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers in the game at Nissan Stadium on November 02, 2025 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images)

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Tennessee Titans​

+750 to win the division
Win total 6.5 (+100)
Key additions: Wan’Dale Robinson, K.J. Osborn, Andre James, Daniel Bellinger
Key departures: Tony Pollard, Quandre Diggs, L’Jarius Sneed

Cam Ward is fresh off his Netflix debut and facing a crossroads early in his development. He’s as talented as they come and is a smart kid. He’s on a team going nowhere fast, but the new uniforms look nice. Two new receivers and a new tight end provide some hope for at least some competitive football. An above average defense led by a great front four will keep Tennessee from getting wrecked. This team just isn’t good enough yet. The South is a talented divison. The Titans fall way short.

Prediction: This is Houston’s divison to lose. Jacksonville will give chase and qualify as a wild card. Indianapolis takes a step back. Tennessee is Tennessee. The biggest question in the AFC South is whether or not C.J. Stroud shakes off his terrible end to 2025. I believe he will. Houston makes a run to the AFC Championship game.

This article was originally published on Forbes.com

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