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Feb 23, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Seth Trimble (7) shoots as Louisville Cardinals forward Khani Rooths (9) and guard Ryan Conwell (3) and forward Sananda Fru (13) defend in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
Outside the top 75 of KenPom, Risk to Miss the ACCT
18. Georgia Tech (Prev: 18, 2-14): The Yellow Jackets lost their 10th straight ACC game, this time in Atlanta vs. FSU. They have also lost 13 of 14 with that inexplicable win over NC State in Raleigh in there. As the only 2-win team in the ACC, they’re clearly dead last in the ACC.
17. Boston College (Prev: 17, 3-13): The Eagles’ defense smothered Wake Forest for 30 minutes, holding them to just 38 points at the 10:00 mark. Unfortunately, they only had 45 points themselves. Then both offenses got hot and Boston College nearly blew it but hung on for a 1-point win. They then traveled to Miami and lost by 22. BC is very poor offensively, but rank in the top 75 defensively.
16. Notre Dame (Prev: 16, 4-12): What an up-and-down week for the Irish. They suffered an embarrassing 44-point home loss to Duke. Sure, it’s Duke, but you can’t lose that bad at home. They recovered by beating NC State at home in overtime on Saturday.
15. Pittsburgh (Prev: 15, 4-12): Pittsburgh and SMU traveled west together to play each of the West Coast opponents. It went better for Pitt than it did SMU. Pitt started the trip with a loss at Stanford, but then ended Cal’s NCAA tournament hopes with a 16-point win. They outscored Cal by 8 points in each half. They’ve won 2-of-3 and own the head-to-head against Notre Dame which could be crucial in determining who is the 15th team that makes the ACC tournament.
ACC’s Middle Class
14. Syracuse (Prev: 13, 6-10): Syracuse got bit by an absurd hot shooting night from Wake Forest. The Deacons shots 56% from deep with Myles Colvin making 7-8. Syracuse’s decision on Red Autry this offseason will be an interesting one.
13. Wake Forest (Prev: 12, 6-10): Wake Forest suffered a bad, bad loss to Boston College and then turned around and beat Syracuse. Their offense was stuck in the mud against BC and they scored just 67 points. They then put up 87 points against Syracuse. That’s how it goes with this cluster of ACC teams.
12. Stanford (Prev: 14, 7-9): Stanford had a great week. After dispatching Pitt and the Cardinal laid 20-point beating on SMU in Palo Alto. It’s almost a Quad 1 win, but barely falls into Quad 2. Still, they’re 4-5 against Quad 1. The problem is they are only 3-3 against Quad 2 and 4-3 against Quad 3. If they’d beaten Cal twice instead of losing to them twice, they might be in the tournament hunt.
11. California (Prev: 11, 8-8): The Cal Bears seemed to be charging their way into the tournament. A 4-point win over SMU had them on the brink as the first team out. I really started to believe they might do it before a shocking 16-point home loss to Pitt. That’s going to tarnish their perfect 8-0 record against Quads 3 and 4 and likely end their hopes barring something shocking in the ACC tournament.
10. Virginia Tech (Prev: 10, 7-9): It was tied at halftime in the Dean Dome, but Virginia Tech couldn’t get enough defensive stops and lost their only game this week 89-82 at North Carolina, likely ending any last chance at an NCAA tournament at-large bid.
9. Florida State (Prev: 8, 8-8): Florida State’s insane heater started with a win in Coral Gables against Miami. They won seven of nine and then hosting Miami and lost by 10. They went to Atlanta and beat Zombie Georgia Tech by nine to end the week on a positive note.
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Tournament Teams
8. SMU (Prev: 5, 8-8): As other teams have experienced, the West Coast trip is hard (and really shouldn’t be a thing in ACC play). SMU though is coming from Texas which you’d think would make it a little less severe. Nonetheless, they lost both contests first losing a close one at Cal and then losing by 20 to Stanford. They allowed 95 points to the Cardinal and now see their offense ranked 15th and the defense outside the top 100. They’re at risk of dropping into a play-in game if they lose out and with Miami and FSU remaining, that’s not a stretch.
7. NC State (Prev: 4, 10-6): Probably the biggest loser this week was NC State. They went to Charlottesville and got completely embarrassed by Virginia for the second time this season. They lost to the Hoos by 15 earlier in the season. This time they had to go on the road and lost by nearly double that amount (29) in John Paul Jones Arena.
NC State owns the head-to-head tie breaker over both Clemson and UNC so they still were in a prime spot for a double-bye in Charlotte, but they went to Notre Dame and lost in overtime. Ven Allen Lubin was excellent in the post, but the rest of the team was chucking 3-pointers all day finishing 10-34. They’re so 3-point reliant that when they’re not falling, they don’t have other ways to beat you. They’ve now lost 4 of 5 and have Duke and Stanford upcoming.
6. Louisville (Prev: 3, 9-7): Louisville is a lot like NC State in that they shoot a ton of 3s and when they’re hot they look like a Sweet 16 team, but when they’re not, you really notice how quickly they settle for mediocre shots. They shoot the most 3-pointers as a proportion of their shot total (52.7%) of all ACC teams (in conference play). This week they suffered road losses to both North Carolina and Clemson. Worse yet, Mikel Brown hurt his back against UNC and looked limited against Clemson.
Against Clemson, they were 10-36 from 3. Clemson was 8-21. Louisville plays a high-tempo, 3-point heavy almost NBA style. Isaac McNeely, the big time transfer who joined from Virginia is averaging 10.5 points per game after averaging 14 and 12 in a slower paced offense (think fewer opportunities) and has devolved into a 3-point only players with 84% of his field goal attempts coming from behind the line. Their best wins are NC State, Louisville, SMU, Indiana, and of course Kentucky. They’re safely in the field of 64 and KenPom loves them (no. 19), but they’re a volatile pick if they stay on the 6-seed line.
5. Clemson(Prev: 9, 11-5): Clemson was in a major funk losing four straight games with three of those four coming to teams that will not make the NCAA tournament. The defense didn’t have the same intensity, and the offense didn’t have the same purpose — looking lost at times. They had some bad luck with teams getting crazy hot from 3 and FSU’s Robert McCray playing at an unstoppable level with the help of a quick whistle from the refs.
All the bad momentum and bad luck totally flipped as Clemson took the week of and them brought physicality and intensity into their matchup with Louisville. From the start they looked like the better team. Louisville was making 3-pointers early, but eventually those contested low-percentage looks dried up. Clemson was the better team in the post and finally a guard other than Ace Buckner came through. In the second half, Jestin Porter got hot scoring all 16 of his points in the second half. RJ Godfrey had 13 points and Ace Buckner delivered another double-digit performance with 11.
Interestingly, Coach Brownell made some coaching adjustments with Butta Johnson starting over Jake Wahlin and rolling his substitutes far more frequently with players coming in and out every 2-3 minutes instead of getting longer 5-minute stretches. This seems to help their energy.
The Tigers had dropped all the way down to a 9-seed in recent projections, but this win pushes them up to an 8 according to CBS. Next, they will play their biggest game of the season at Chapel Hill. With a win, Clemson will just need to beat Georgia Tech to lock in a double-bye in the ACC tournament and likely move up to a 7-seed. I would love to see a 7-10 matchup for Clemson where they get to play Miami (OH).
4. North Carolina (Prev: 8, 11-5): The Tar Heels beat Louisville on Monday and then took down Virginia Tech without star Caleb Wilson. They’ve managed to reach 11-5 with Seth Trimble, Henri Veesaar, and Caleb Wilson all missing games throughout the year. If they can get Wilson back in time for the tournament, they could be a sleeper. They’re projected as a 6-seed and I could see a healthy UNC squad beating and 11 and a 3-seed for a Sweet 16 run. Hubert Davis has done a good job navigating this, but I also understand that UNC expects to be a 1, 2, or 3-seed most years and that hasn’t been the case with him.
3. Miami (Prev: 7, 13-4): Miami hasn’t had the toughest schedule with just seven Quad 1 games (3-4) (and no Duke), but they just keep winning and that counts for something. This week, they took down red-hot FSU and Boston College. They’re 43rd in offensive efficiency, 35th in defensive efficiency, and they do this while not shooting a ton of 3s or shooting them at a high clip. They’re currently projected for a 7-seed and have two Quad 1 opportunities upcoming with SMU and Louisville to close the season.
2. Virginia (Prev: 2, 13-3): Virginia had a very up-and-down week. It started with an impressive 29-point win over NC State where they looked like the type of squad with the depth and skill to give a battle to any team in the country. Then they went to Durham and lost by 26 points to Duke. There is a clear gap between them and the Blue Devils.
National Champion-Caliber
1. Duke (Prev: 1, 15-1): In maybe their most dominant back-to-back games of the season they put a 44-point beating on Notre Dame in South Bend and then beat Virginia by 26. Boozer had 42 points combined in the two wins while their defense held Notre Dame to 56 and Virginia to 51. They are no. 1 overall in KenPom and possess the no. 1 ranked defense. They’re not as flashy offensively as some past Duke teams which is why many were hesitant to compare them to some of the recent teams that had so much NBA talent (Cooper Flagg, Kon
Knueppel, etc.), but their team defense is better. At this point, I lean toward the Blue Devils as my pick to win the NCAA tournament.
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