A look back at the Upton trade after 2 years...

[sundevil04]

So, here's a look back at the Upton trade two years later. It doesn't look as terrible now by any means. We ended up with Peter O'Brien, Nick Ahmed, Brandon Drury, Enrique Burgos and Randall Delgado.

To the Braves
Justin Upton Very nice player, but by no means the star he was supposed to be. Hit .265 with 56 HR's and 172 RBI's in his 2 seasons with ATL before beng traded for a package of minor leaguers.That puts his average season in ATL as .265 BA 28 HR and 86 RBI's. Good, not great.

Chris Johnson Had a nice season in year 1 in ATl, but since then has become what he is which is "a guy" only seen 80 AB's this season while hitting .235

We got
Martin Prado ---> Peter O'Brien (Prado was later dealt for O'Brien) & Enrique Burgos

Brandon Drury ----> One of the top prospects in our system, could be our everyday 2B next season

Randall Delgado - Nice Bullpen arm

Nick Ahmed - everyday SS, gold glove caliber in the field with a bat that is coming around. .304 BA in his last 115 AB's with some pop

Zeke Spruill - Traded to the red sox for a bag of balls named Myles Smith

 

[sundevil04]

If you could have the choice today, would you rather have

Upton and Johnson

or

Peter O'Brien
Brandon Drury
Randall Delgado
Nick Ahmed
Enrique Burgos

Note Upton and Johnson are being paid a combined 21 Mil this season. O'Brien, Drury, Delgado, Ahmed and Burgos combine for under 3 mil.

 

[Phrazbit]

So, here's a look back at the Upton trade two years later. It doesn't look as terrible now by any means. We ended up with Peter O'Brien, Nick Ahmed, Brandon Drury, Enrique Burgos and Randall Delgado.

To the Braves
Justin Upton Very nice player, but by no means the star he was supposed to be. Hit .265 with 56 HR's and 172 RBI's in his 2 seasons with ATL before beng traded for a package of minor leaguers.That puts his average season in ATL as .265 BA 28 HR and 86 RBI's. Good, not great.

Chris Johnson Had a nice season in year 1 in ATl, but since then has become what he is which is "a guy" only seen 80 AB's this season while hitting .235

We got
Martin Prado ---> Peter O'Brien (Prado was later dealt for O'Brien) & Enrique Burgos

Brandon Drury ----> One of the top prospects in our system, could be our everyday 2B next season

Randall Delgado - Nice Bullpen arm

Nick Ahmed - everyday SS, gold glove caliber in the field with a bat that is coming around. .304 BA in his last 115 AB's with some pop

Zeke Spruill - Traded to the red sox for a bag of balls named Myles Smith

Its still a terrible trade. I don't think you extrapolate later trades into it. The Dbacks were never thinking "Lets get Prado so we can overpay him and then flip him for a position-less minor league slugger".

They traded a guy who was, and still is, one of the better outfielders in the National League, while he was still under 25 and on a good contract with several years of club control. In exchange they got a glorified utility infielder with one year on his deal, whom they promptly had to give an ugly extension to.

Some of the prospects are working out better than anticipated but the opportunity cost of dumping a guy of his caliber for guys who were years away and another guy who simply was not good... it was waaaaay too much. Towers negotiated himself into a terrible deal.

But even if you want to take into account all the subsequent moves that came down the road then I think you have to add in the cycle of stupid that spawned from Upton's void. Such as the Trumbo trade, the Cody Ross signing. Had they not made the disastrous Upton trade, they would have never "needed" a power hitting OF bat.

All in all, we'd have been better off if we'd kept him (and if the front office hadn't deliberately poisoned the relationship). Yes, we'd be missing a couple role playing young guys, but we'd have had more resources to pursue other legitimate voids, like top end pitching.

 

[DWKB]

Yeah, this evaluation essentially ignores the value added (or removed) from the moment of the trade until today.

It also uses sparse objectivity in the analysis to make a judgement as well IMO

 

[sundevil04]

Yeah, this evaluation essentially ignores the value added (or removed) from the moment of the trade until today.

It also uses sparse objectivity in the analysis to make a judgement as well IMO

It does ignore he value added over the past two seasons from Upton, Johnson and Prado, where Upton was clearly the more valuable piece. However keep in mind we lost 98 games last season. Had we not made the trade and had Upton on hat team, we may have "only" lost 93. What's the point of that?

What would your analysis of the players be?

 

[Phrazbit]

It does ignore he value added over the past two seasons from Upton, Johnson and Prado, where Upton was clearly the more valuable piece. However keep in mind we lost 98 games last season. Had we not made the trade and had Upton on hat team, we may have "only" lost 93. What's the point of that?

What would your analysis of the players be?

But it likely would have been a totally different team. No wasted salary or time on garbage like Trumbo and Prado. More resources to address actual problems with the roster.

If you undid that trade and removed Towers from the equation (because he undoubtedly would have done something else equally stupid) then I think the last 2 years would have been completely different, almost certainly for the better.

 

[Dback Jon]

Bump

It would be nice to reanalyze that trade again

 

[Phrazbit]

Bump

It would be nice to reanalyze that trade again

The 3 year gap where we got essentially negative return on the field cannot be made up. It was a horrible trade. It's nice that Drury is panning out but you don't trade an All-Star so 3 years down the road you can get a quality 3rd baseman.

 

[overseascardfan]

The saving grace is that Upton is no longer in ATL as well.

 

[sundevil04]

The 3 year gap where we got essentially negative return on the field cannot be made up. It was a horrible trade. It's nice that Drury is panning out but you don't trade an All-Star so 3 years down the road you can get a quality 3rd baseman.

Upton made 1 all star game since we traded him (in a season where he batted .261 with 26 HR and 81 RBI) and only 2 in a 10 year career. He's a good, but no where near great player. He's a career .270 hitter with 25 HR & 80 RBI power aka, good not great power. His average seasons numbers are right in line with David Peralta.

I'll take a package of Drury, Ahmed & Peter O'Brien (via Prado) ANYDAY. Not to mention those three are costing us a total of $1.5M/year vs Upton's $22M/yr.

Just wait until Peter O'Brien get's some big league AB's

 

[82CardsGrad]

Upton made 1 all star game since we traded him (in a season where he batted .261 with 26 HR and 81 RBI) and only 2 in a 10 year career. He's a good, but no where near great player. He's a career .270 hitter with 25 HR & 80 RBI power aka, good not great power. His average seasons numbers are right in line with David Peralta.

I'll take a package of Drury, Ahmed & Peter O'Brien (via Prado) ANYDAY. Not to mention those three are costing us a total of $1.5M/year vs Upton's $22M/yr.

Just wait until Peter O'Brien get's some big league AB's

DITTO! I LOVE this trade!!

 

[unseenaz]

DITTO! I LOVE this trade!!

You love a trade that landed us Drury, who probably won't be as close to the level of Upton in his career? Good to know.

Btw, now that o'brien is an outfielder, he's essientaly Mark Trumbo - another outfielder with pop, stokes out a lot and well below average on defense

 

[sundevil04]

You love a trade that landed us Drury, who probably won't be as close to the level of Upton in his career? Good to know.

Btw, now that o'brien is an outfielder, he's essientaly Mark Trumbo - another outfielder with pop, stokes out a lot and well below average on defense

Are you aware that Upton has a higher strikeout rate than Trumbo?

...along with higher average HR & RBI / season numbers.

 

[82CardsGrad]

You love a trade that landed us Drury, who probably won't be as close to the level of Upton in his career? Good to know.

Btw, now that o'brien is an outfielder, he's essientaly Mark Trumbo - another outfielder with pop, stokes out a lot and well below average on defense

You seem to think you've got a skill for predicting the future... cool. Got the powerball numbers for us too??

 

[sundevil04]

another outfielder with pop, strikes out a lot and well below average on defense

Sounds like Justin Upton to me.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Sounds like Justin Upton to me.

LOL...

 

[GatorAZ]

You love a trade that landed us Drury, who probably won't be as close to the level of Upton in his career? Good to know.

Btw, now that o'brien is an outfielder, he's essientaly Mark Trumbo - another outfielder with pop, stokes out a lot and well below average on defense

Someone fapping over a 25 year old in the PCL is definitely worrisome but I have to agree that the trade is less worse than I originally thought. Upton still in his 3 years post trade recorded 176 XBH's and nearly 11 WAR.

 

[Phrazbit]

Upton made 1 all star game since we traded him (in a season where he batted .261 with 26 HR and 81 RBI) and only 2 in a 10 year career. He's a good, but no where near great player. He's a career .270 hitter with 25 HR & 80 RBI power aka, good not great power. His average seasons numbers are right in line with David Peralta.

I'll take a package of Drury, Ahmed & Peter O'Brien (via Prado) ANYDAY. Not to mention those three are costing us a total of $1.5M/year vs Upton's $22M/yr.

Just wait until Peter O'Brien get's some big league AB's

Again, you're living in the moment. We went 3 years where our return for an all-star outfielder was absolutely... zilch. Drury looks like a quality player, Ahmed is a defensive specialist only and O'Brien reeks of "AAAA". With O'Brien I suspect that even if his bat proves MLB quality he will have to play in the AL to make use of it. And this is three years removed! That cannot be emphasized enough. It took over 3 years for us to FINALLY see something from the Upton trade besides flat out embarrassment.

So no, it was not a good trade, it was one of the key moves that defined a run of idiotic transactions by what was one of the worst GMs I have ever seen in any sport.

 

[unseenaz]

Again, you're living in the moment. We went 3 years where our return for an all-star outfielder was absolutely... zilch. Drury looks like a quality player, Ahmed is a defensive specialist only and O'Brien reeks of "AAAA". With O'Brien I suspect that even if his bat proves MLB quality he will have to play in the AL to make use of it. And this is three years removed! That cannot be emphasized enough. It took over 3 years for us to FINALLY see something from the Upton trade besides flat out embarrassment.

So no, it was not a good trade, it was one of the key moves that defined a run of idiotic transactions by what was one of the worst GMs I have ever seen in any sport.

Quality post. If o'brien was a catcher the story would be different, but he's a dine a zonen player in this league. Decent power, high strikeouts and poor defender. You see these players at 1b and the corner outfield spots all over the place

 

[82CardsGrad]

Again, you're living in the moment. We went 3 years where our return for an all-star outfielder was absolutely... zilch. Drury looks like a quality player, Ahmed is a defensive specialist only and O'Brien reeks of "AAAA". With O'Brien I suspect that even if his bat proves MLB quality he will have to play in the AL to make use of it. And this is three years removed! That cannot be emphasized enough. It took over 3 years for us to FINALLY see something from the Upton trade besides flat out embarrassment.

So no, it was not a good trade, it was one of the key moves that defined a run of idiotic transactions by what was one of the worst GMs I have ever seen in any sport.

Just curious... Had we gotten something better in return for Upton, how would that have changed things over the past 3 years?
I am totally fine with saying - today, that the trade has panned out quite well for us and in fact, I can definitively say that I would prefer to have what we have now (Drury, O'Brien, Ahmed and Delgado) versus Upton and Johnson...

 

[DWKB]

Upton has put up a WAR total of 10.6 the past three years. Granted he never became McCutchen or Trout level that expectations had as an 18 yr old, but it's good for top 40 hitters in the league.

The Diamondback have received 5 WAR in return over those three years.

Yeah, Upton might not have made a difference to the crap Towers put on the field those three years, but he certainly was productive.

Look at it this way, Upton has underachieved from his draft perspective and peak seasons in AZ and yet the Diamondbacks STILL got destroyed in that trade.

 

[Phrazbit]

Just curious... Had we gotten something better in return for Upton, how would that have changed things over the past 3 years?
I am totally fine with saying - today, that the trade has panned out quite well for us and in fact, I can definitively say that I would prefer to have what we have now (Drury, O'Brien, Ahmed and Delgado) versus Upton and Johnson...

And those 3 years where we got nothing out of it... that does not matter at all to you? If you'd been told the day we made the trade that "Prado will be a massive failure, Delgado will be a bum, Ahmed will be a good fielder that hits below .200... but... eventually Drury will look like a guy who can start", you'd have said "Good trade!".

IMO, that is absolutely bonkers.

As far as how the team would have been had the trade been different? Who knows. If you want to actually get into how that trade "panned out" then be honest about it.. that move was like "The Old Woman who swallowed a fly", a move that was so obviously dumb so fast that we started making equally bad moves to try and fix it. We only signed Cody Ross because we were so hell bent on trading Upton, both moves failed miserably so we traded for Trumbo, that was an abject disaster so we signed Tomas. So, a LOT would be different right now had KT not screwed up that trade so miserably.

 

[sundevil04]

Decent power, high strikeouts and poor defender.

Again...sounds like Upton to me.

 

[sundevil04]

Let's not forget the contract aspect to this trade. If we had Upton for the past three years, in all his .270 batting average & sub par fielding, we would have had to pay him. More importantly, if we wanted to keep Upton for this season and beyond, we would be out $137Mil. Buh bye, Greinke.

 

[82CardsGrad]

And those 3 years where we got nothing out of it... that does not matter at all to you? If you'd been told the day we made the trade that "Prado will be a massive failure, Delgado will be a bum, Ahmed will be a good fielder that hits below .200... but... eventually Drury will look like a guy who can start", you'd have said "Good trade!".

IMO, that is absolutely bonkers.

As far as how the team would have been had the trade been different? Who knows. If you want to actually get into how that trade "panned out" then be honest about it.. that move was like "The Old Woman who swallowed a fly", a move that was so obviously dumb so fast that we started making equally bad moves to try and fix it. We only signed Cody Ross because we were so hell bent on trading Upton, both moves failed miserably so we traded for Trumbo, that was an abject disaster so we signed Tomas. So, a LOT would be different right now had KT not screwed up that trade so miserably.

My point was that we were going nowhere fast with Upton...so we didn't go anywhere without him. Big deal.
I look at this trade as a longer term investment. We dumped him and the associated costs of keeping him, for much cheaper talent that is now (a mere 3 years later) starting to pay off.
It's a long term investment approach, not a day-trader's mentality. I'm cool with that...