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Welcome, budding bracketologists! By taking this step, you’ve decided to join the roughly 80 million people who enter a March Madness pool every year. As a first-timer, we imagine this week is both exciting and a bit daunting, which is why we’ve put together these Bracketology 101 course materials. Included is everything you need to know for a successful first run at picking the tournament, and some information to use if you need to convince people around the office you’ve secretly been an expert this whole time.Simple glossary
This may be your first bracket, but it’s not your first exposure to #BracketTalk. If you’ve heard the language but are unsure of what it all means, here’s a quick cheat-sheet of common terms we will use in the rest of the guide:
Chalk: Refers to the higher- or better-seeded team in each matchup
Upset: A lower-seeded team beating a higher-seeded one (generally only refers to seeding, not perceived talent of the teams)
Bracket-buster: The biggest kind of upset, in which the higher-seeded team that lost was commonly picked to go much further in the tournament.
The format
March Madness is a 64-team*, single-elimination tournament to determine the national champion. Teams make the tournament in one of two ways:
They win their conference tournament at the end of the season (this accounts for 31 slots). These are referred to as automatic qualifiers.
They are selected by a 12-person committee based on performance during the season. They are referred to as at-large bids.
It’s helpful — but not necessary — to know which teams are which. A team may briefly get hot in its conference tournament and win it, but would not have been good enough to make the tournament otherwise. You don’t need to research this yourself; people will talk about it nonstop if it happens.
*A note on the whole “64 teams” thing: You will consistently see 68 teams mentioned instead of 64. Ignore this, as it is a marketing ploy. It’s like how movies used to open on Friday, but now they open on Wednesday at 6 p.m. because there’s more money to be made. The NCAA tacked on four extra games before the big tournament starts, called the First Four, but they are just play-in games. Every region has one of its 16 slots open, and eight teams play for the chance to get one of those last four slots. Those eight teams are the four lowest-seeded automatic qualifiers and the four lowest-seeded at-large teams. Most bracket pools do not require you to pick those first four games.
How to build your bracket
Another way to put it: How to pick winners.
1. Trust chalk… mostly
People love to pick upsets correctly, and will often go on at length about their “system” for choosing when to call one. Do not listen to them, for they are fueled by delusion. The only system you need to worry about is K.I.S.S.: Keep It Simple, Stupid.
Teams are seeded where they are for a reason, and that reason is an entire season’s worth of games by which to judge their talent and performance. Sure, crazy things can happen in a single game, but talent disparity keeps that from happening very often.
Higher seeds win their matchup more than 70 percent of the time, and 35 of the past 40 tournaments have been won by a team seeded third or better. Last tournament, the Final Four was filled by all No. 1 seeds. There have only been three tournaments out of 40 that didn’t have a No. 1 seed in the Final Four.
So yes, there will be upsets along the line, but going by the rankings (“chalk”) means the numbers are on your side. When in doubt, side with math.
But…
2. Be ready to pick a few upsets… smartly
If you pick chalk, it virtually guarantees you won’t finish last in your bracket pool. Unfortunately, it also means you’re unlikely to win it.
Every tournament has 63 games, and about a dozen of those are won by lower-seeded teams every year. Usually, this occurs when the teams are separated by only a few spots (e.g., a No. 9 seed vs. a No. 8 seed), but over 40 years, there have been an average of eight upsets per tournament in which the teams are separated by five spots or more.
They are going to happen, and picking them correctly is usually what wins you a bracket pool. It is HARD to do this, so don’t feel bad if you guess wrong. The best you can do is ensure those guesses are educated.
Upsets generally occur in the first two rounds, but stay away from picking ones that involve a No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the early rounds. A No. 1 seed has lost in the first round (against a No. 16 seed) twice in history. No. 2 seeds have lost to No. 15 seeds 11 times out of 160, and No. 3 seeds have lost in the first round 23 times total. As a cheat sheet, here are the records for every first-round matchup of the last 40 years:
| Matchup | Record (1985-2025) |
|---|---|
| 1 vs. 16 | 158-2 |
| 2 vs. 15 | 149-11 |
| 3 vs. 14 | 137-23 |
| 4 vs. 13 | 127-33 |
| 5 vs. 12 | 103-57 |
| 6 vs. 11 | 98-62 |
| 7 vs. 10 | 98-62 |
| 8 vs. 9 | 77-83 |
Now that you have that information, and you’ve accepted you’ll have to make at least a few upset calls, let’s cover the smartest way to protect yourself from being wrong.
3. Reduce the cost of mistakes… mathematically
When picking upsets, it’s important to understand how bracket scoring works. Bracket pools award points for each correct pick you make, usually increasing the points for each round. So, choosing the winner of a first-round game may be worth one point; in the second round, correct picks are worth two points each, and so on. The more correct picks you have late in the tournament, the more points you get. That’s why you’ll see two scores when you check on your bracket: “Points” and “Points Possible.” This measures your correct choices up to this point, and how many points you could get if you continue to be right in the coming rounds. If your champion was eliminated early, your possible points take a massive hit, meaning your bracket is busted.
So not only are you trying to pick upsets that make sense, you’re trying to minimize the cost of being wrong.
Let’s say you were to pick a No. 14 seed to beat a No. 3 seed in the opening round. If you are wrong (and numbers say that you likely are), it’s not just the points from that game you miss out on. Every game that the No. 3 seed wins from then on, you are guaranteed to get those picks wrong as well. The further that No. 3 seed goes, the more points you miss out on.
Alternatively, picking a No. 10 seed to beat a No. 7 seed is not only more likely than a 14 vs. 3 upset, but if you’re wrong, the No. 7 seed probably won’t make it to the late rounds. The risk of losing out on increasing amounts of points is relatively low, whereas a No. 3 seed might win it all.
So pick upsets where being wrong carries little risk, and remember picking a team to pull off one upset does not mean you should keep picking them to repeat the feat.
4. If you get stuck: Don’t take yourself too seriously
This is where K.I.S.S. is here to help again. If you’re crippled by indecision, and the seeds and stats above aren’t helping, pick your winner in a way that entertains you.
Who would win in one-on-one combat (i.e., a Gator vs. a Tiger)? Which school’s city would you rather live in? Which team has the player with the most letters in their name? You’re here for a good time, not a long time. Keep it simple. Have fun.
5. What to do if you get every pick right
You can’t. Well, you can; there isn’t a rule against it or anything, but you won’t. No one ever has. If you flipped a coin for every game, you’d have 9,223,372,036,854,775,808-to-1 odds of being right. A person is roughly four million times more likely to be struck by lightning. Even if you go by rankings and know your college hoops, researchers estimate the odds of perfection at 120 billion-to-1. That’s improved, but your odds of winning the Powerball are still 410 times better. So don’t sweat imperfection. It’s part of the fun.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
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