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Not every pitcher is off to a stellar start to the 2026 MLB season like Cam Schlittler is. Many pitchers are underperforming, with some struggling to find their usual form. From gaps in ERA to xERA of over 20, to BABIP luck giving hitters a better batting average by 500 points, we look at this week’s underwhelming pitchers. Here are 5 pitchers whose underlying metrics suggest their outings from the mound should tell a different story.
MORE: 5 MLB hitters who are underperforming based on their advanced metrics
May 14, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Miami Marlins pitcher Braxton Garrett (20) pitches during the first inning against the Minnesota Twins1 at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images
After spending the season in Triple-A, rehabbing his left elbow UCL, Braxton Garrett finally got his return to the majors after an injury to Miami Marlins #2 prospect, Robby Snelling. His first start back, nonetheless, was ruthless. He pitched 1.1 innings, giving up 4 hits, walking 5 batters, allowing 5 runs, and ending with an ERA of 33.75. However, his xERA of 7.86 suggests that it was not entirely his fault, but some luck was involved.
His xBA against is .197, while his actual BA against is .500, meaning the hitters he faced got far luckier than the contact quality they had. If Garrett can stay healthy and build on his underlying metrics, his rotation spot in Miami could look a lot more secure than his debut suggested.
Another pitcher who had a recent rough couple of outings is San Diego’s 26-year-old relief pitcher, David Morgan, posting a 30.86 ERA with 7 ER over 2.1 innings pitched. However, his xERA over these outings is roughly 4.50, which illustrates that his performance metrics have been stronger than his surface-level stats indicate.
This is confirmed through his barrel rate (8.3%) and strikeout rate (22.2%), which sit right at league averages, highlighting Morgan’s ability for swings and misses. His BABIP against of .667 shows that hitters have been getting extremely lucky with balls in play. With David Morgan being sent down to the minors, his control and command should get ironed out, and his performance will level out with his xERA.
May 10, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; New York Mets MLB pitcher Sean Manaea reacts against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
New York Mets left-hander Sean Manaea has had a rough stretch prior to his most recent appearance. Over the four outings, he posted a 12.19 ERA, allowing 14 earned runs over 10.1 innings pitched, numbers that do not reflect the caliber of pitcher he has been. His xERA (5.98) over that stretch suggests that luck has played a significant role.
His hard-hit rate (33.3%) and average exit velocity against (89.9 mph) confirm that the quality of contact from opposing hitters has been poor relative to the outcome, indicating that it has not been nearly as damaging as his ERA shows. With a K% of 24.6% and a BB% of just 7.0%, Manaea’s ability to strike hitters out and limit walks suggests his ERA should trend back toward his xERA in the next couple of outings.
The next struggling pitcher over his last couple of outings is Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Isaac Mattson. While starting the season off extremely well, achieving an ERA as low as 1.13, he has given up 7 ERs over his last 3.2 innings pitched, inflating his ERA.
However, his performance undermines what his advanced metrics actually show. His BABIP against is .545, and a strand rate of just 22% show that almost every runner he has allowed on has come around to score. His xERA of 11.59 sits well below his actual ERA of 23.63 over this stretch, suggesting that hitters have gotten fortunate against him over these outings.
Apr 28, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks MLB pitcher Andrew Hoffmann (56) delivers a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers in the sixth inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images
The last pitcher on this week’s list is Arizona Diamondback reliever Andrew Hoffman, who was sent down to the minors following a rough outing, giving up 7 earned runs in just 0.1 innings pitched. He posted a 22.09 ERA over his last 3.2 innings pitched; his xERA over this stretch (5.97) suggests that it was not entirely his fault.
His BABIP of .625 and a strand rate of 41%, which is well below the league average of 72%, confirm that hitters have been lucky against his pitches. With a stint in the minors to iron things out, Hoffman’s underlying metrics suggest his ERA should look a lot more like his xERA when he returns.
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MORE: 5 MLB hitters who are underperforming based on their advanced metrics
Braxton Garrett, Marlins
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May 14, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Miami Marlins pitcher Braxton Garrett (20) pitches during the first inning against the Minnesota Twins1 at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images
After spending the season in Triple-A, rehabbing his left elbow UCL, Braxton Garrett finally got his return to the majors after an injury to Miami Marlins #2 prospect, Robby Snelling. His first start back, nonetheless, was ruthless. He pitched 1.1 innings, giving up 4 hits, walking 5 batters, allowing 5 runs, and ending with an ERA of 33.75. However, his xERA of 7.86 suggests that it was not entirely his fault, but some luck was involved.
His xBA against is .197, while his actual BA against is .500, meaning the hitters he faced got far luckier than the contact quality they had. If Garrett can stay healthy and build on his underlying metrics, his rotation spot in Miami could look a lot more secure than his debut suggested.
David Morgan, Padres
Another pitcher who had a recent rough couple of outings is San Diego’s 26-year-old relief pitcher, David Morgan, posting a 30.86 ERA with 7 ER over 2.1 innings pitched. However, his xERA over these outings is roughly 4.50, which illustrates that his performance metrics have been stronger than his surface-level stats indicate.
This is confirmed through his barrel rate (8.3%) and strikeout rate (22.2%), which sit right at league averages, highlighting Morgan’s ability for swings and misses. His BABIP against of .667 shows that hitters have been getting extremely lucky with balls in play. With David Morgan being sent down to the minors, his control and command should get ironed out, and his performance will level out with his xERA.
Sean Manaea, Mets
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May 10, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; New York Mets MLB pitcher Sean Manaea reacts against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
New York Mets left-hander Sean Manaea has had a rough stretch prior to his most recent appearance. Over the four outings, he posted a 12.19 ERA, allowing 14 earned runs over 10.1 innings pitched, numbers that do not reflect the caliber of pitcher he has been. His xERA (5.98) over that stretch suggests that luck has played a significant role.
His hard-hit rate (33.3%) and average exit velocity against (89.9 mph) confirm that the quality of contact from opposing hitters has been poor relative to the outcome, indicating that it has not been nearly as damaging as his ERA shows. With a K% of 24.6% and a BB% of just 7.0%, Manaea’s ability to strike hitters out and limit walks suggests his ERA should trend back toward his xERA in the next couple of outings.
Isaac Mattson, Pirates
The next struggling pitcher over his last couple of outings is Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Isaac Mattson. While starting the season off extremely well, achieving an ERA as low as 1.13, he has given up 7 ERs over his last 3.2 innings pitched, inflating his ERA.
However, his performance undermines what his advanced metrics actually show. His BABIP against is .545, and a strand rate of just 22% show that almost every runner he has allowed on has come around to score. His xERA of 11.59 sits well below his actual ERA of 23.63 over this stretch, suggesting that hitters have gotten fortunate against him over these outings.
Andrew Hoffmann, Diamondbacks
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Apr 28, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks MLB pitcher Andrew Hoffmann (56) delivers a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers in the sixth inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images
The last pitcher on this week’s list is Arizona Diamondback reliever Andrew Hoffman, who was sent down to the minors following a rough outing, giving up 7 earned runs in just 0.1 innings pitched. He posted a 22.09 ERA over his last 3.2 innings pitched; his xERA over this stretch (5.97) suggests that it was not entirely his fault.
His BABIP of .625 and a strand rate of 41%, which is well below the league average of 72%, confirm that hitters have been lucky against his pitches. With a stint in the minors to iron things out, Hoffman’s underlying metrics suggest his ERA should look a lot more like his xERA when he returns.
— Enjoy free coverage of the top news & trending stories on The Big Lead —
Continue reading...
