- Joined
- May 8, 2002
- Posts
- 1,151,784
- Reaction score
- 59
If the season started today, one 49ers player would be their biggest fantasy bargain, another a likely bust, and a third a likely wild card.
My biggest bargains and busts are interdependent, which is often what happens in fantasy. One player’s loss usually marks another player’s gain -- or, for our purposes, a fantasy manager’s gain if we guess correctly.
In 2025, for the third time in his career, Christian McCaffrey racked up 400+ touches (including the playoffs). In NFL history, 93% of RBs coming off 400+ touch campaigns have regressed the following year statistically, usually by 25% or more. McCaffrey’s RB ADP will probably be around three or four. Why not better for last year’s runaway RB1? Because he’ll turn 30 in June, and the market generally prefers younger RBs with comparable ceilings.
It’s not just that McCaffrey went over 400 touches. It’s that he hit a career-high 450. That is absurd and almost unprecedented for someone his age. Sizable injury risks and declining efficiency make him a massive fantasy risk, and as a result, a highly probable bust.
That means his handcuff will be the team’s biggest bargain -- and possibly one of the biggest bargains in all of fantasy. At the moment, it might be Brian Robinson Jr., 2025 fifth-rounder, and college bell cow Jordan James are also candidates to be this year’s Jordan Mason (circa 2024). Or if Robinsons leaves and James isn’t ready, Isaac Guerendo could be this year’s . . . Isaac Guerendo (circa 2024). However, it turns out that managers should draft McCaffrey’s backup several rounds early.
The biggest wild card is Ricky Pearsall. If Jauan Jennings leaves in free agency -- and safely assuming Brandon Aiyuk will be gone -- this once deep receiving corps will begin the season with Pearsall, 33-year-old Mike Evans, nearly 32-year-old journeyman Demarcus Robinson, and backup TE Jake Tonges.
A 2024 first-round pick, Pearsall has a clear path to top-20 production. Despite not scoring last year, he hit 13.5+ points in 44% of his contests. More consistent usage (and health) could catapult him into must-start territory. However, this remains a “could happen” scenario. We haven’t yet seen him put it all together. That’s what makes him a fantasy uncertainty.
This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: 2026 49ers fantasy preview: Biggest bargain, bust, and wild card
Continue reading...
My biggest bargains and busts are interdependent, which is often what happens in fantasy. One player’s loss usually marks another player’s gain -- or, for our purposes, a fantasy manager’s gain if we guess correctly.
In 2025, for the third time in his career, Christian McCaffrey racked up 400+ touches (including the playoffs). In NFL history, 93% of RBs coming off 400+ touch campaigns have regressed the following year statistically, usually by 25% or more. McCaffrey’s RB ADP will probably be around three or four. Why not better for last year’s runaway RB1? Because he’ll turn 30 in June, and the market generally prefers younger RBs with comparable ceilings.
It’s not just that McCaffrey went over 400 touches. It’s that he hit a career-high 450. That is absurd and almost unprecedented for someone his age. Sizable injury risks and declining efficiency make him a massive fantasy risk, and as a result, a highly probable bust.
That means his handcuff will be the team’s biggest bargain -- and possibly one of the biggest bargains in all of fantasy. At the moment, it might be Brian Robinson Jr., 2025 fifth-rounder, and college bell cow Jordan James are also candidates to be this year’s Jordan Mason (circa 2024). Or if Robinsons leaves and James isn’t ready, Isaac Guerendo could be this year’s . . . Isaac Guerendo (circa 2024). However, it turns out that managers should draft McCaffrey’s backup several rounds early.
The biggest wild card is Ricky Pearsall. If Jauan Jennings leaves in free agency -- and safely assuming Brandon Aiyuk will be gone -- this once deep receiving corps will begin the season with Pearsall, 33-year-old Mike Evans, nearly 32-year-old journeyman Demarcus Robinson, and backup TE Jake Tonges.
A 2024 first-round pick, Pearsall has a clear path to top-20 production. Despite not scoring last year, he hit 13.5+ points in 44% of his contests. More consistent usage (and health) could catapult him into must-start territory. However, this remains a “could happen” scenario. We haven’t yet seen him put it all together. That’s what makes him a fantasy uncertainty.
This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: 2026 49ers fantasy preview: Biggest bargain, bust, and wild card
Continue reading...
