2024 Texans pick watch thread

Stout

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I'm all for spending money in FA, just not draft capital along with it. I think you get triggered when you see the phrase "cap space ".
Haha, right? Nah, it's just the thought we don't have a lot of it. We have more than enough. As for draft capital, we have a lot of it so I don't mind parting with something, but it would take a lot to get that #27.
 

kerouac9

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Chris Jones, sir.

We can throw names at each other. Let's look at this semi-objectively. From 2015 to 2020, here is the average value for the team that drafted the players between 25 and 29:

Year: DrAV (Best Player, Worst Player)
2015: 18.4 (EDGE Shaq Thompson, WR Breshad Perriman)
2016: 15.4 (DT Kenny Clark, QB Paxton Lynch)
2017: 20.4 (CB Tre'Davious White, DE Taco Charlton)
2018: 15.8 (WR Calvin Ridley/S Terrell Edmunds, TE Hayden Hurst)
2019: 17.2 (EDGE Montez Sweat, IDL L.J. Collier)
2020: 23.6 (LB Patrick Queen, OT Isaiah Wilson)

For context, James Conner had an AV of 21 with the Steelers. Kyler Murray put up an AV of 54 over his first four years. Deone Bucannon had an AV of 26 over his first four years here.

Historically, you're very likely to get a player that is marginally worse than Deone Bucannon with that pick.
 

Mulli

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We can throw names at each other. Let's look at this semi-objectively. From 2015 to 2020, here is the average value for the team that drafted the players between 25 and 29:

Year: DrAV (Best Player, Worst Player)
2015: 18.4 (EDGE Shaq Thompson, WR Breshad Perriman)
2016: 15.4 (DT Kenny Clark, QB Paxton Lynch)
2017: 20.4 (CB Tre'Davious White, DE Taco Charlton)
2018: 15.8 (WR Calvin Ridley/S Terrell Edmunds, TE Hayden Hurst)
2019: 17.2 (EDGE Montez Sweat, IDL L.J. Collier)
2020: 23.6 (LB Patrick Queen, OT Isaiah Wilson)

For context, James Conner had an AV of 21 with the Steelers. Kyler Murray put up an AV of 54 over his first four years. Deone Bucannon had an AV of 26 over his first four years here.

Historically, you're very likely to get a player that is marginally worse than Deone Bucannon with that pick.
All of those are significantly better than whoever Deone Bucannon is (pretending Super Skout Keim never drafted that guy)
 

kerouac9

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All of those are significantly better than whoever Deone Bucannon is (pretending Super Skout Keim never drafted that guy)
L.J. Collier was not more productive than Deone Bucannon.
Taco Charlton was released after two seasons with Dallas.
Hayden Hurst had 43 receptions with the Ravens before they traded him to Atlanta.
 

Mulli

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Year: DrAV (Best Player, Worst Player)
2015: 18.4 (EDGE Shaq Thompson, WR Breshad Perriman)
2016: 15.4 (DT Kenny Clark, QB Paxton Lynch)
2017: 20.4 (CB Tre'Davious White, DE Taco Charlton)
2018: 15.8 (WR Calvin Ridley/S Terrell Edmunds, TE Hayden Hurst)
2019: 17.2 (EDGE Montez Sweat, IDL L.J. Collier)
2020: 23.6 (LB Patrick Queen, OT Isaiah Wilson)
L.J. Collier was not more productive than Deone Bucannon.
Taco Charlton was released after two seasons with Dallas.
Hayden Hurst had 43 receptions with the Ravens before they traded him to Atlanta.
Okay, Steve Keim Burner Account.
 

ajcardfan

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L.J. Collier was not more productive than Deone Bucannon.
Taco Charlton was released after two seasons with Dallas.
Hayden Hurst had 43 receptions with the Ravens before they traded him to Atlanta.
Bucannon had a couple of decent years, IIRC. Big hitter.
 

Mulli

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K9, you win. You made me google Taco Charlton. 5 sacks in one season makes him better. Even though Deone had 7 sacks in his 7 years.
 

kerouac9

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K9, you win. You made me google Taco Charlton. 5 sacks in one season makes him better. Even though Deone had 7 sacks in his 7 years.
Yeah but he did that for the Dolphins after getting waived by Dallas (the team that drafted him), and then he was cut by Miami the next year.
 

kerouac9

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I win.
I mean, there are lots of guys that are drafted after that pick that turned out to be good, but the process for dozens of teams didn't lead them to be valued at the position where we're picking them as prospect.
 

slanidrac16

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I don’t see us trading picks to acquire a player.
I think Monti will be looking to draft the next Brian Burns ( example).
 

Mulli

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Yeah but he did that for the Dolphins after getting waived by Dallas (the team that drafted him), and then he was cut by Miami the next year.
Still better than Deone. And if Deone was a good as you claim it adds value to the 27th pick. Quick trade for Stefon Diggs with the 27th.
 

Chris_Sanders

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Y'all be crazy overvaluing the #27 pick in the draft. That's Robert Nkemdiche territory, bruh.

When doing my mocks I love to trade out of the 27 to get a 2nd +. I think a lot of the player talent is similar.

There are a few OTs I like in that range though.
 

akg102

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The only way I'd trade up from #27 is if we trade down from #4 OR are only dealing picks from Rd4 onward.

Accepting that the draft is a crap-shoot (to some degree), it's apparent that you need ammunition. It's also apparent that great teams draft well.

Consistently accumulating 5+ picks in the top #90 every year allows you to build a rock solid roster without putting yourself in cap hell. Use picks past #90 for positioning picks in earlier rds.
 

kerouac9

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When doing my mocks I love to trade out of the 27 to get a 2nd +. I think a lot of the player talent is similar.

There are a few OTs I like in that range though.

I think what the exercise revealed is that oftentimes you're drafting a second-round talent with that pick. There's very rarely 25+ true first-round quality players available in a draft class -- especially when fewer and fewer underclassmen are declaring.

But every team knows that, so you don't get a ton in return. Last year the Bills moved up from 27 to 25 with the Jags and only gave up a 4th round pick.
 

ajcardfan

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Yeah but your point has really no merit.

Every cut was tied to something really tangible..there was no Eno Benjamin type of cut.
That's odd. Benjamin was cut because he was mad about playing time and yelled at a coach about it after a game.


There were many cuts this year with zero explanation. That's their prerogative, they don't have to explain it. But there were a couple of head scratchers. A lot people assumed it was bad attitudes, etc, but nothing came out like it did about Benjamin.
 

HairZach

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That's odd. Benjamin was cut because he was mad about playing time and yelled at a coach about it after a game.


There were many cuts this year with zero explanation. That's their prerogative, they don't have to explain it. But there were a couple of head scratchers. A lot people assumed it was bad attitudes, etc, but nothing came out like it did about Benjamin.
This Kyler quote has made me hesitant to question the cuts. The coaches know what they want and I'm glad there aren't any leaks from the front office anyone.

“There was a lot of adversity, lot of ups and downs, but this team is one of my favorite teams to ever be a part of,” Murray said postgame. “Never any complaining, never any pointing fingers or anything like that, never turned on each other. Kept showing up to work every single day fighting for each other and going hard. Then on Sundays, we left it all out there.”
 

Crimson Warrior

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This Kyler quote has made me hesitant to question the cuts. The coaches know what they want and I'm glad there aren't any leaks from the front office anyone.

“There was a lot of adversity, lot of ups and downs, but this team is one of my favorite teams to ever be a part of,” Murray said postgame. “Never any complaining, never any pointing fingers or anything like that, never turned on each other. Kept showing up to work every single day fighting for each other and going hard. Then on Sundays, we left it all out there.”

Oh wow, really nice find HairZach, and I had not seen this quote before! It must be fairly recent!

And pretty interesting K1 would say that about a 4-13 team. It makes me wonder about how bad it was under his Keim and Kliff teams!

P.S. could we get an origin story for your name? Are you a barber or something similar? :)
 
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