2009-2010 NFL: A Change in the Winning Formula

Mitch

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In the NFL, there truly is such a delicate line between winning and losing. For those NFL administrators who initiated the salary cap, the draft order and free agency rules---those who seeked to create as much parity as possible---they are realizing their visions of an NFL where from year to year fans can expect the unexpected.

For example, rewind back to the undefeated Patriots of a couple of years ago. They appeared to be invincible---and thanks to crafty (pun intended) draft maneuverings and veteran free agent bargains, the Patriots looked about as well stocked for the future as any team ever has been. Yet, last year Tom Brady goes down in the first game, and lo and behold, the Patriots do not even make the playoffs. Brady is back this year and the Patriots are back in the playoffs---but they do not appear nearly as formidible as they were two years ago.

Now---take a look at last year's elite teams and how they are faring this year:

1. The New York Giants---Super Bowl Champions of 2 years ago---and #1 seed in the NFC last year---they lose their opening round game at home to the Eagles last year---start this year by going 5-0 out of the gate---hit a tough patch and have never recovered---in fact, can anyone still believe that with the playoffs on the line and playing their last regular season game in the old Meadowlands stadium, they get trounced by the Panthers---at team totally out of playoff contention.

2. The Carolina Panthers---the #2 seed in the NFC last year---the pundits talk about Super Bowl loser hangovers---but there may be something to be said about a hangover for high seeded teams that lose in their first game as the Panthers did to the Cardinals last year (like the Giants to the Eagles). For this year, back with essentially the same team, they stumble badly out of the gate and by the time they get their team rolling, it's too late. As the Panthers have shown in routs on the road versus the Cardinals and the Giants and at home versus the Vikings, this is team that remains a legitimate Super Bowl contender---but finds itself on the outside looking in.

3. The Tennessee Titans---the #1 seed in the AFC last year---another one and done high seed hangover---they come out of the gate losing 6 in a row---hard to believe isn't it? Like the Panthers---no one wants to play them right now, as they have won 6 of their last 8 games and have looked very impressive doing it.

4. The Pittsburgh Steelers---the defending Super Bowl Champions---with once again basically the same team they had last year---on the verge of being eliminated from the playoffs, thanks largely to losing to the Bengals, one of their division rivals, twice. Last year the Bengals looked like they had no shot to challenge the Steelers. Last year's matchup looked like David versus Goliath.

The interesting thing about all three of these teams is that their brand of play epitomizes what most pundits believe is the sure fire way to win NFL football games: run the ball effectively and play stout defense.

Is this further evidence that there is a new formula for winning in the NFL?

The one perennial mainstay is the Indianapolis Colts...and what they do is drive all defensive coordinators crazy with a prolific passing attack headed by Peyton Manning, the game's most consistent QB, and an offensive scheme that is predicated on making their reads and calls at the line of scrimmage. And while they aren't a defensive juggernaut by any means, they are speedy and aggressive. The way they figure it is---if they can create two turnovers a game to give their offense two extra possessions---they are pretty much unbeatable. Which this year has been the case, until regrettably last weekend they pulled their starters out of a home game they were winning and thus lost the chance to pull of an undefeated season.

Side note: It's a shame what happened last week in Indianapolis...the players wanted to play, the fans wanted the players to play, but the coach erred on the side of caution. If anything, this decision has not only cost the Colts the opportunity to do what no modern day NFL team has done---take it wire to wire---it has put even more pressure on them now to go all the way, because if they don't, the pundits will undoubtedly point back to the Week 16 decision that basically threw off the momentum of what has been a runaway freight train.

Yet, take a look at three other teams that are back in the playoffs this year following good playoff performances last year:

1. The Arizona Cardinals. Despite losing two of their first three games and getting the fork sticked in them by FOX's Jimmy Johnson, the Cardinals have remained one of the NFL's most prolific scoring offenses, thanks to a dynamic passing game, augmented this year by a much improved running game. Yet, while the Cardinals would like to run the ball more, make no mistake about it, it's their passing game that enables them to thrive. As for their defense, like the Colts, the Cardinals try to play super aggressively in order to get the ball back in the hands of their high flying offense. When the Cardinals win the turnover battle they are pretty much a lock to win. Plus, the Cardinals' special teams, once the worst in the NFL, are now pretty special.

2. The Philadelphia Eagles. Another passing team that boasts a high flying talented WR unit. Like the Cardinals, the Eagles' main RB has been a rookie. But in these offenses, it really doesn't matter all that much because they are going to try to move the ball quickly through the air. The Eagles' defense is not nearly as good as it has been in previous years, partly because, sadly, the engineer of that defense, Jim Johnson, passed away this past year and partly too because the Eagles' front seven hasn't been as intimidating as it has been in past years.

3. The San Diego Chargers. The player that stirs this drink is QB Philip Rivers and his ability to pinpoint passes to an array of quality receivers. Yes, they still have LT...but he's more of a decoy these days than a centerpiece. Then you look at the Chargers' defense and honestly they are not overwhelming...but they play hard and aggressively and do like the others try to do: get the ball back in the hands of their offense.

This year the other teams in the playoffs follow a similar formula: good passing attacks, complimentary running games and opportunistic (but not juggernaut) defenses:

1. New England Patriots (Brady).

2. Cincinnati Bengals (Palmer).

3. Green Bay Packers (Rodgers).

4. New Orleans Saints (Brees).

5. Dallas Cowboys (Romo).

6. Minnesota Vikings (Favre).

One can make the case that the key players for all of these teams, beside their excellent QBs are WRs: Wes Welker, Chad Ochicinquo, Donald Driver/Greg Jennings, Marques Colston, Miles Austin and Sindey Rice/Percy Harvin.

So why are the Giants, Panthers, Titans and Steelers on the outside looking in?

Struggles in the passing game more than anything else.
 
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82CardsGrad

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Great post Mitch. This has been developing over the last several years... The NFL has now officially become a Pass-First league. The rules and the talent have all conspired to make it so. You still need to be able to run - but only when you have to... As in short yardage situations and inside the 10 yard line... Otherwise, there is no reason at all for a team not to do everything in its' power to fully develop and master their passing game, over and above any other element of the team.

Which - not to drag this into a beaten to death side-bar - why I am so uneasy about our post-Kurt era... :(
 

Redheart

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Fantastic post, Mitch.

This post is worthy of copied by Bickley.
 
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Mitch

Mitch

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Funny that Mike Singletary---one who preaches smashmouth football---changed his tune this year---almost the very moment Michael Crabtree was signed ---in favor of adopting more of a spread passing attack. Frank Gore suddenly was no longer the centerpiece of that offense.

The interesting thing there is that the 49ers were winning before they made the switch...and struggled more afterward. Interesting too that the coach Singletary fired, Mike Martz, would have been more of an asset once Singletary made the change.

But... Singletary did something that most coaches are advised against: changing philosophies during a season. I remember watching their pre-season games and all they did was pound the ball. Had the 49ers been able to sign Crabtree on time, settle on Alex Smith as their QB and been able to use the 4 pre-season games to work on their passing game, they would have been better off.

Perhaps the thought was already planted when Singletary surprised everyone by making a pitch to add Kurt Warner? It's hard to imagine how Warner was going to fit in theor offense, and yet they wanted him.

All this said, the 49ers took some small steps back this year to try to get ahead next year. They key is whether Alex Smith is the right guy.

Because of the need for a top level QB to lead a high powered passing attack, the Rams and Seahawks have HUGE decisions to make in the first round of this year's draft.

If you look 2-3 years down the road at the NFC West, Kurt Warner, Matt Hasselbeck and Marc Bulger will most likely be retired and no one knows at this point if Alex Smith will last in SF.

Thus, if the Rams and Seahawks peer down that road, they would be foolish, IMO, to pass on QBs with their first round picks. They need to get their QBsOF in place now---and thinking they can get lucky later in drafts is naive.

Look too at the recent high pick QBs who have assimilated quickly into the NFL game and are now clear QBs of the present and future for their teams: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Matthew Stafford. And I would certainly add Mark Sanchez to those three, even though he has struggled as one might expect, he's still showed the talent and the grit to keep his team in the playoff hunt. The point is, he's in place, he's already playing and he is only going to get better.

This brings me to the Cardinals and why, as I have said previously, that I truly believe we will see the Cardinals draft a QB with one of their first three picks this year. As 82CardsGrad questioned, what about the post-Warner era?

While the hope for many is that Matt Leinart takes over for Warner and resumes a high level of play at the QB position, the wonder I still have is this: Matt Leinart was not drafted by Ken Whisenhunt. And while Whiz has said all the right things in support of Leinart, at this point Whiz doesn't have much of a choice. Yet, if he drafts his own QB, someone who fits his system in the ways Whiz wants, then when Warner is gone, Whiz has options.

The great thing about Whiz is, you can rest assured he's already thinking about what he's going to do when Warner is gone.
 

ajcardfan

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So why are the Giants, Panthers, Titans and Steelers on the outside looking in?

Struggles in the passing game more than anything else.

Great post Mitch, but i think it should be noted that the Steelers have passed the ball pretty damn well this year. They are above the Cards in just about every passing category, The Steelers struggles are 95% because of thier defense. IMHO
 

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The great thing about Whiz is, you can rest assured he's already thinking about what he's going to do when Warner is gone.

.... And I'm betting it isn't turning to BSP, even though its been said that he really, really trusts him, and in a pinch will turn the reigns over to him.
 

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I believe Leinart is our QB of the future. Not sure how he doesn't fit into a Whiz offense. I hope we don't select a QB in the first three rounds. We have other needs to address and hope we go there. LB, DL, OL before QB.
 
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Mitch

Mitch

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Great post Mitch, but i think it should be noted that the Steelers have passed the ball pretty damn well this year. They are above the Cards in just about every passing category, The Steelers struggles are 95% because of thier defense. IMHO

I think their passing stats are misleading, AJ. In the games I've watched, their pass protection has broken down repeatedly at critical times and Big Ben has looked harried. But, you are right in the sense that they are stressing the passing game more and relied less on their running game...which speaks to the new formula.
 

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Good stuff Mitch. It's much a given in the NFL nowdays, if you don't have a very good QB you will not win on a consistant basis. Thats why I'm hoping the Lambs, Hawks & Niners dont get their hands on Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford or Clausen. Take all the Suh's, Gerald McCoys & others you want but until you have a bona-fide star signal caller you wont go anywhere.
 

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...And once again...I tip my Cardinal hat to Don Coryell...

I remember the FAMOUS FLEX-DEFENSE of the Cowboys under Coach Landry. It was very effective in its' day. Take away the run for 2 downs and then set up a 3rd and long... Except, Coach Coryell had other ideas! PASS on 1st Down, 2nd Down, or 4th & 1. TOTALLY changed EVERYTHING! :) ...And TODAY's NFL is a PASSING league! Those that can DO it well! WIN! Those that can't...DON'T! GOOD Post, Mitch! :)
 

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Mitch add to the list the Houston Texans who are so close to doing serious damage in the NFL playoffs. Adding Schaub to the likes of Johnson, Walter, Daniels & Jones are going to be a force to reckon with.
 

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Way to get the New Year and New Decade off to a flying start Mitch. As ususl, your post is right on, and was truly fascinating to read. You have a mind that is truly analytical, and a knack for putting your thoughts into words that all can follow. Thanks for starting us off with great stuff this year.
 
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