#1 Pick

Discussion in 'Arizona Cardinals' started by tnmike, Apr 20, 2021.

  1. Stout

    Stout Hold onto the ball, Murray!

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    Thank you. I can get behind this. Well, not the "not concerned because Conner" part :) And not the idea that Keim is going to be the one to find the gem out of all the dross. The overall philosophy, though, makes sense. You're not crazily claiming any old body will do. If I was comfortable with Conner, I'd probably be in the same boat. It's when you don't have a starting RB--which I don't think we have at all--that, IMO, the risk of waiting so isn't worth it.
     
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  2. JeffGollin

    JeffGollin Registered User

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    Pick #16 is likely to be a no-man's land with no elite talent left when we pick and little if any reason for teams to want to trade up to #16.

    Tough challenge for SK either way.
     
  3. Shane

    Shane Current STAR Contributor

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    I dont know with as many as 4Qbs being taken in top 10 and 5 in top 15 there is very likely to be elite talent still on the board.
     
  4. Solar7

    Solar7 Meh

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    Actually, the stats don't support your argument here.

    (Warning, this is pulled from another thread where I made this post.)

    I implore you to look at the draft history of 5th-7th round RBs and examine how many actually contribute anything to their teams. http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/rb

    I've got some time, so I'll break down the numbers for the past 5 years. I stripped out the fullbacks and any position changes. Here's what it looks like for 2020-2016.

    - 56 drafted, 2,608 potential games (16 game seasons since drafted)
    - 15 either still on roster, completed rookie contract, or were traded for compensation - ~27%
    - 13 with more than 100 rushing attempts or over 40 targets, number drops to 10 if only on their original team
    - 185 games started for their original team - 7% of those games (130 from the trio of Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, & Jordan Howard - 70% of total)
    - 674 games played for their original team - 26% of those games (22% of total)

    The big whopper - Jones, Carson, and Howard accounted for 41% of all rushes and targets of the 56 men drafted since 2016.

    Remove those three major outliers, and only 7 players started five games or over for the team that drafted them, and one started more than 10 (Wendell Smallwood). Out of 56 players, and 2,608 games.

    That's abysmal. It means the chances of drafting a guy who will start five games over their career for you in recent history in these rounds is about 18%, and even that's a very low standard. These late rounds don't produce reliable players.
     
  5. QuebecCard

    QuebecCard Registered

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    With possibly 5 QB's in the top 15, we have the 11th positional pick.

    We may screw up the pick but there certainly will be elite talent on the board.
     
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  6. Solar7

    Solar7 Meh

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    Highly doubtful. There are 7-8 picks between ours and #49 where teams will be targeting one of the top three RBs, and some teams have multiples so they don't have to worry about missing another position to make the investment.

    18. Dolphins
    23. Jets
    24. Steelers
    34. Jets
    35. Falcons
    36. Dolphins
    40. Broncos
    43. 49ers?

    Their starters?

    Gaskin
    Coleman
    Snell
    Davis
    Gordon
    Mostert (who is getting older)

    And that's assuming there are no trades or a team like the Bills decide to make a slightly unexpected move.
     
  7. DVontel

    DVontel Registered

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    lol, no way there’s still discussions of wanting to mega reach for a RB at #16
     
  8. Solar7

    Solar7 Meh

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    We're not going to draft an RB in the first, but we're also not getting one of the top 3 RBs at #49.

    It's really just a matter of if you think Conner is any good or not. Some are going to feel fine here. We know how I feel.
     
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  9. Cbus cardsfan

    Cbus cardsfan Back to Back ASFN FFL Champion

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    There’s not a huge drop off, grade-wise from 16 to say mid 40’s. That’s why I wouldn’t hate Harris in round 1 although I’d prefer someone else or a trade back to get him.

    Most of the top RBs lately have been 2nd rounders.

    To think you’re going to get a late round guy and plug him in, is a terrible plan. It can happen but not likely. That being said, I like Klyn Hill from Miss St. But difference makers aren’t usually found later in the draft.
     
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  10. DVontel

    DVontel Registered

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    That’s fine with me.
     
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  11. HairZach

    HairZach Registered

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    I've advocated for reaching at RB because I want to improve the offense, but I really don't want a first round WR. We've invested so much at that position and we already have a super star in Hopkins. I think one or two of the other guys in that room steps up to their role.
     
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2021
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  12. Solar7

    Solar7 Meh

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    Ditto. My hope this year was that we'd invest in a #2 to stick around for a few years, not a one year rental in Green, but I'm going to rip my hair out if we invest another pick in a WR and he flames out like everyone else we've picked since Fitz, especially in the past few, post-Arians years.
     
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  13. DVontel

    DVontel Registered

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    I think it’s fascinating you threw Green in there with Hop like he’s anything close to prime Green.
     
  14. Cardiac

    Cardiac Registered User

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    Wrs deepest position in the draft, if we draft one before day 3 I will be pissed. CB or OL at 16 or trade back.
     
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  15. DVontel

    DVontel Registered

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    I’m still fine with AVT being the pick.
     
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