Marvin the X and Wilson the Z per Lafleur

[BooksOrangePlanet]

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[ASUCHRIS]

if he continues on his current path he’ll be worth a top 10 deal until Puca extends. Top 5 through 8.

His current path? He's had one 1,000 yard season. Take a quick look at any list - nobody has him anywhere near a top 10 WR.

PFF Wide Receiver Rankings 2026 | PFF

See PFF's top 32 NFL wide receiver rankings for 2026, featuring advanced grades, production and player analysis. Check the rankings.

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If he's able to produce consistently like he did in the 2nd half of 25, then by all means pay the man. But there is very little evidence he's a top 10, let alone a top 20 WR.

 

[kerouac9]

It depends on how you view Wilson. If you think he is a top *insert number here* WR, and your offense needs him in a different role than MHJ, then paying him sooner is great because it gets you into his escalated contract years quicker which will benefit you if/when you need to do a MHJ extension. I don't believe it would be prudent to risk losing your only WR to have a 1000 yard season based on the hope that MHJ can replace him in the offense. There are a lot of factors to consider in that. Which WR role is most important for the offense to be successful? Can MHJ play that role better than Wilson? Is it financially prohibitive to pay two WRs along with a TE and RB? IMO, if the idea is to take a QB in the first round of next years draft or move forward with Beck, I feel like the money shouldn't be an issue. Pay Wilson now. Pay MHJ if he earns it in two years. Max your weapons on offense, and if you have too many players to pay, things have probably worked out well for the team.

I just hesitate to anoint MHJ as a top WR extension candidate until I see he has earned it on the field. That doesn't mean the front office may not have questions about paying Wilson still, that could be a hold up. It's more of understanding how MLF wants his offense to work, and what players are the most valuable to achieving that. IMO, Wilson's skill set is more akin to Puka's than Davante's. That doesn't guarantee Wilson will get that volume, because McBride will factor in to the target distribution, but it could be that the Wilson/McBride combo routes are the driver of the pass game and MHJ's role is more of a complementary piece.

I'm in Colorado so the basketball analogy I would go to is, is MHJ akin to Michael Porter Jr. and Wilson/McBride are Jokic and Jamal Murray in terms of the offensive scheme?

The important thing to remember if whichever WR is second in priority will be no more than the third or fourth option in this offense.

If McBride isn’t first or second on the team in targets, there will be a priorities conversation at the end of the year.

 

[kerouac9]

His current path? He's had one 1,000 yard season. Take a quick look at any list - nobody has him anywhere near a top 10 WR.

PFF Wide Receiver Rankings 2026 | PFF

See PFF's top 32 NFL wide receiver rankings for 2026, featuring advanced grades, production and player analysis. Check the rankings.

www.pff.com

If he's able to produce consistently like he did in the 2nd half of 25, then by all means pay the man. But there is very little evidence he's a top 10, let alone a top 20 WR.

Well yeah but he had 950 yards in like 12 games. 52 yards through the first 5 games.

I don’t think he’s going to continue the trajectory upwards and become, like, Terrell Owens. But I think he can be a #1 WR in a good offense. When those guys come up, they get top 8 contracts.

Justin Jefferson extended two years ago.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Well yeah but he had 950 yards in like 12 games. 52 yards through the first 5 games.

I don’t think he’s going to continue the trajectory upwards and become, like, Terrell Owens. But I think he can be a #1 WR in a good offense. When those guys come up, they get top 8 contracts.

Justin Jefferson extended two years ago.

I'm personally willing to take the chance and wait until the end of the season to make a decision...if he shows he's worth it, then pay him.

 

[BooksOrangePlanet]

what would make wilson happy now might not make him happy at the end of the year - that's the risk - far as talent goes we've all seen it - once a pocket passer came into play wilson became a monster - straight monster

 

[kerouac9]

I'm personally willing to take the chance and wait until the end of the season to make a decision...if he shows he's worth it, then pay him.

Yeah we can always franchise him.

 

[Chopper0080]

The important thing to remember if whichever WR is second in priority will be no more than the third or fourth option in this offense.

If McBride isn’t first or second on the team in targets, there will be a priorities conversation at the end of the year.

These are the types of things I am excited about for this season. How much is designed for players to get targets? What does the volume of passing game targets look like? What players overlap in formations and situations? Is a full three target distribution share or more of a two target with a complementary 3rd and much smaller 4th and 5th share? (4th and 5th being WR3 and RB) Can the team stay in games to be able to see what the ideal RB volume and split will be in this offense?

The Rams had 430 targets to their top 2 WRs and all TEs in 2025. (50 targets to RB1 and nearly 75 to WRs 3, 4 and 5 combined). Can the offense offer 130 to 135 targets each to McBride, Wilson and MHJ, and does that drop in targets (169 in 2025) for McBride lead to a negative outcome?

 

[football karma]

does that drop in targets (169 in 2025) for McBride lead to a negative outcome?

so many of Trey's targets and catches were 6 yard dump offs.

Trey had 169 catches for 1,239, avg 9.8

most TEs are in the 10-11 yard per catch average

if MLF gets Trey up to 10.5 yards per catch, he can get the same yards on 118 catches

 

[kerouac9]

so many of Trey's targets and catches were 6 yard dump offs.

Trey had 169 catches for 1,239, avg 9.8

most TEs are in the 10-11 yard per catch average

if MLF gets Trey up to 10.5 yards per catch, he can get the same yards on 118 catches

He had 169 targets. He had 126 receptions.

I don’t think we’re gonna pass more this year, which means all these guys are gonna have to be more efficient if they want to keep their numbers up.

 

[Cardiac]

He had 169 targets. He had 126 receptions.

I don’t think we’re gonna pass more this year, which means all these guys are gonna have to be more efficient if they want to keep their numbers up.

So many variables to consider.
How much an improved run game lessons pass attempts.
If the defense improves how many more offensive snaps will we get.
If the defense creates more turnovers then offensive snaps will increase.
If the defense is like last year then pass attempts will increase.
If Mlf is an offensive genius then we will have longer drives and score more.
There are more possibilities to consider but the biggest by far is how much will Tip take targets from the big four

 

[kerouac9]

So many variables to consider.
How much an improved run game lessons pass attempts.
If the defense improves how many more offensive snaps will we get.
If the defense creates more turnovers then offensive snaps will increase.
If the defense is like last year then pass attempts will increase.
If Mlf is an offensive genius then we will have longer drives and score more.
There are more possibilities to consider but the biggest by far is how much will Tip take targets from the big four

All of this is fake except the first one.

The correlation between offensive or defensive efficiency and snap count is really low. I know it feels like it should be large, but we went through this exercise last year.