10 thoughts - my mock draft

Gandhi

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Detailed explanations for each pick: https://www.arizonasportsfans.com/forum/threads/gandhi-mock-draft.1197351/post-6467916

The game is over for this year. I always think it is a fun exercise, partly because all the research gives me a different perspective than people that don’t spend as much time studying the Cardinals, reading about the Cardinals and focusing on the Cardinals as I and most people on this message board do.

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1 – Monroe Freeling, offensive tackle, Georgia

2 – Jaishawn Barham, edge rusher, Michigan

3A – Carson Beck, quarterback, Miami

3B – Daylen Everette, cornerback, Georgia

4 – Xzavian Harris, defensive tackle, Ole Miss

5A – Mason Reiger, edge rusher, Wisconsin

5B – Bishop Fitzgerald, safety, USC

6A – Riley Nowakowski, H-back, Indiana

6B – Eli Heidenreich, runningback, Navy

7 – Tristan Leigh, offensive tackle, Clemson


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1 – Based both on very good tape and athletic abilities, Freeling is the only OT with the value of a top three pick. However, because he would have to make the transition from left to right tackle, I would prefer to sell the pick and draft him or another OT a little later in the first round. To me, that is enough to justify that he is not worthy of the #3 overall pick to a team that exclusively needs a right tackle. However, if you cannot find a trade partner, it would be wrong to select anyone else than Freeling.

Actually, I am starting to doubt that OT is even an option at #3 in the real draft. I had thought about it for a while, and then I was listening to Albert Breer explain how Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay traditionally have not used high draft capital on the offensive line. I suppose LaFleur is very inspired by those two, so that makes it an interesting perspective, that I had not thought about.

Certainly, no other OT is ranked that high. So, what do you do? Do you reach for David Bailey? Do you reach for Jermod McCoy? Do you just take Jeremyiah Love?

Point being that I am now seeing this more as a “what-I-would-do-pick” and less what I think will actually happen.

2 – I am aware that a selection of Beck will make many of you question if life is worth living anymore, but I have become more and more convinced that it might be the best solution. I still prefer Simpson somewhere between 25-34, but if they cannot get him, I think that Beck gives them the best chance this season, and then they can reassess the situation next offseason. I know that some of you hope to lose all games this season, and in that case, I understand that you prefer Brissett, but that is just not my approach to this draft.

Another thing, Beck fits the profile of quarterbacks that Ossenfort has brought in much better than Simpson (bigger guy, lots of college experience).

3 – Again, Rueben Bain has the most dominant tape of anyone in the draft, and it is not particularly close. It is spectacular, and it is certainly a fair opinion if you want the Cardinals to draft him. Personally, I cannot take such an outlier-guy in the top three, and I would be shocked if Ossenfort of all people does it, but the fan-wish to do so is certainly valid. And the same can be said for Spencer Fano who might not have the second-best tape of anyone, but then at least among the top five best. Freeling is a much safer pick.

4 – I wanted to sell #3 because I thought that I could land Max Iheanachor or Blake Miller later and get more picks in the process.

Don’t rule out that Ossenfort could trade back to the 8-15 range and target one of them or Kadyn Proctor (Justin Frye heavily recruited him in back-to-back years while at Ohio State).

5 – I obviously didn’t know until then, but because of the pick of Beck, I should have gone into the draft with another strategy. He gives them a chance to win immediately, so I should have helped him some more by drafting Gabe Jacas or Christen Miller in the 2nd. That’s not to say that Barham and Everette were bad picks as they both have star-potential. I just think that their developmental road is a little longer than Jacas’ or Miller’s.

6 – Mason Reiger is the only selection that is not necessarily a great scheme fit, but I just like him a lot. It is fair to argue that it was a bad pick.

7 – I am highly satisfied with the sixth round. Probably neither Nowakowski nor Heidenreich will play that many snaps, but they still play very important roles in LaFleur’s offense, and they will contribute from day one. They are not developmental projects. I feel like I found two impact players in a late round.

8 – I feel like I won the trade with the Lions. Got Harris and Fitzgerald for it. If I had not done it, I would have picked Austin Barber (OT) at #104 and Kaleb Proctor at #143, but I would not prefer that over what I got.

9 – I often see people say things ala “late-round picks never work out, so it doesn’t matter who you pick.” Well, that is a loser mentality since every good team has multiple contributors that were picked in late rounds. So, if you don’t try your best to get those picks right, then you lose.

For that reason, I think that every team has to at least consider Uar Bernard, the athletic marvel from Nigeria, with one of their last picks. He would be the best athlete ever in the NFL, and I heard an IPP-scout (Bernard is from the IPP-program) explain how he expected him to be a practice squad player that truly pushed for a roster spot after three years. I tend to trust that Pete Kwiatkowski can develop a raw player like Bernard.

In the end I chose between two offensive linemen because I think that the Cardinals must get the offensive line fixed. I took Leigh because the picks matter. He is less of a developmental project since he has a lot of experience playing the game and is a great athlete (albeit not to Bernard’s extreme level). Bernard has pretty much unlimited potential, but I don’t think that the Cards have the luxury of taking a wild chance on a major developmental project like that. As I said, though, I do think it is important to have the discussion.

10 – Because of the identity crises I found myself in after picking Beck, I am only partly satisfied with this draft class.
 

Cbus cardsfan

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Good work but I can't get behind any draft that has Beck on the Cards.
If they're going to take a later round QB, I think Nussmeier is the guy to target.
I'd even take Klubnik over Beck.

Not a fan of Freeling either. Always leery of guys who "rise" in the draft season.

Not sure what round he's projected but the offensive guy I want from Indiana is the RB Black. If the Cards don't take Love, he's my 2nd choice but might be redundant behind Conner and Allgeier because he's a tough runner but not sure of his speed.
 

Krangodnzr

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Good work but I can't get behind any draft that has Beck on the Cards.
If they're going to take a later round QB, I think Nussmeier is the guy to target.
I'd even take Klubnik over Beck.

Not a fan of Freeling either. Always leery of guys who "rise" in the draft season.

Not sure what round he's projected but the offensive guy I want from Indiana is the RB Black. If the Cards don't take Love, he's my 2nd choice but might be redundant behind Conner and Allgeier because he's a tough runner but not sure of his speed.
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I'm leery of Beck as well. I'd only consider him late, but the fact that Georgia was already looking at going with Stockton at QB should make you very leery about using even a high day three pick on him. Beck was an interception machine at Georgia and Miami, which doesn't tend to get better in the pros.
 
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Gandhi

Gandhi

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If they're going to take a later round QB, I think Nussmeier is the guy to target.
Nussmeier is certainly an interesting case, specifically in LaFleur’s offense.

Not a fan of Freeling either. Always leery of guys who "rise" in the draft season.
Well, they only rise because the media has not caught on to them. Teams don’t suddenly think in February or March that guy X or Y needs to be moved far up their board.

Not sure what round he's projected but the offensive guy I want from Indiana is the RB Black. If the Cards don't take Love, he's my 2nd choice but might be redundant behind Conner and Allgeier because he's a tough runner but not sure of his speed.
Yeah, as you mention, I think that Allen is a bit too much like Connor and Allgeier.
 
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Gandhi

Gandhi

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I love all the hard work and dedication you put into these. I laugh at dubbing Freeling worthy of #3 but labeling Bailey as a reach. But hey, it's cool to disagree.
Remember that I am ranking them for the Cardinals. I don’t care about other teams and their rankings.

However, I will admit that I might be pushing offensive tackles a bit up in the rankings. It dangerously raises my blood pressure and makes me break out in a cold sweat to think about Jonah Williams and Kelvin Beachum being full-blown humiliated last season, so I badly want them to draft an OT high. But as I mention, I don’t think they will. I think that Elijah Wilkinson will be the starter.

Maybe only Reese has value to go #3 overall. That is fair to argue. I know you don’t agree, but again, take some time to study Rallis’ defensive system and tendencies. :) He likely is a tremendous scheme fit.
 

Stout

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Remember that I am ranking them for the Cardinals. I don’t care about other teams and their rankings.

However, I will admit that I might be pushing offensive tackles a bit up in the rankings. It dangerously raises my blood pressure and makes me break out in a cold sweat to think about Jonah Williams and Kelvin Beachum being full-blown humiliated last season, so I badly want them to draft an OT high. But as I mention, I don’t think they will. I think that Elijah Wilkinson will be the starter.

Maybe only Reese has value to go #3 overall. That is fair to argue. I know you don’t agree, but again, take some time to study Rallis’ defensive system and tendencies. :) He likely is a tremendous scheme fit.
If we had our new QBOF under center, I'd be right there with you. With what we have at QB? I'm not so concerned. I want RT fixed, yes, but it gives us the flexibility to take blue chip instead of red chip players.
 
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Gandhi

Gandhi

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Is Reese more Redick-like or more Simmons? Serious question, and maybe the answer is neither.
Great question, Garth. He is more Reddick in the sense that he is a pass rusher. Reddick’s draft stock did not rise to first-round level until his senior season at Temple, where he was moved to a full-time edge rushing-role. The Cardinals did him a major disservice in trying to make him an inside linebacker. Reddick flourished when he was deployed in a hybrid edge/linebacker role with the Eagles under Jonathan Gannon. Which is likely the same defensive system that Rallis will run.

Simmons never really had a position. At Clemson he was used in four or five different positions, and it was a big mistake that the Cardinals tried to make him an ILB only. Jack of all trades, master of none, some call it.

Arvel Reese has a position. He is an edge rusher. Sure, he can play linebacker, but even in that case it is not in the middle of the defense. He might not always be a hand-in-the-dirt pass rusher, but he is an edge rusher, and the many facets in his game make him a great fit in a front line that relies on a lot of different looks and simulated pressure packages. A pillar in Rallis’ philosophy is that the opponent don’t know where the pass rush comes from.
 
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Gandhi

Gandhi

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If we had our new QBOF under center, I'd be right there with you. With what we have at QB? I'm not so concerned. I want RT fixed, yes, but it gives us the flexibility to take blue chip instead of red chip players.
I actually think they will take Love. It is the biggest available help for whoever is playing quarterback.
 

maroon

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I think you did good work here, the draft simulators are pretty amazing these days, I used one that traded back like 5 times before I picked, I got Drew Allar in the 5th round the grades on the draft plummeted because I had so many late round picks lol.
 
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Gandhi

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I think you did good work here, the draft simulators are pretty amazing these days, I used one that traded back like 5 times before I picked, I got Drew Allar in the 5th round the grades on the draft plummeted because I had so many late round picks lol.
I actually had that situation several times, Maroon, where I kind of wanted to trade back, but at the same time I also think that the Cards need some stars. They have enough depth but lack the players that decide games. I mean, the analytics will tell you to trade back as many times as you possibly can, but obviously, the biggest talents go first, so it doesn’t help them much to have multiple late-round picks.
 

FB94

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We have one top 100 player while the rest of the division has multiple. Enough of the DR’s of the world, who are average NFL guys. MO needs a stud in RD1, he cannot miss on this pick. IMO he needs a starter level in RD2 as well. He has lots of ground to make up from previous drafts
 

Garthshort

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We have one top 100 player while the rest of the division has multiple. Enough of the DR’s of the world, who are average NFL guys. MO needs a stud in RD1, he cannot miss on this pick. IMO he needs a starter level in RD2 as well. He has lots of ground to make up from previous drafts
And in RD1, he should take? And in RD2? In case you want to help Monti.
 
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Gandhi

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If we do it’s cause bidwill made the pick….i hope the titans jump in front of us to take him
Absolutely it would be Bidwill’s pick. Ossenfort likely wants to take a premium position, and LaFleur likely wants to go with a later round runningback, as they always do with the Rams. But Love will sell tickets.
 
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Gandhi

Gandhi

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3 – Again, Rueben Bain has the most dominant tape of anyone in the draft, and it is not particularly close. It is spectacular, and it is certainly a fair opinion if you want the Cardinals to draft him. Personally, I cannot take such an outlier-guy in the top three, and I would be shocked if Ossenfort of all people does it, but the fan-wish to do so is certainly valid. And the same can be said for Spencer Fano who might not have the second-best tape of anyone, but then at least among the top five best. Freeling is a much safer pick.
Are we overcomplicating this? Are we ignoring how his role and scheme fit likely would mitigate some of his challenges? I don’t know. I have just started wondering if I have written him off too easily and fast. His role is at least pretty obvious in Rallis’ scheme.
 
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Mendoza-Love-Downs-Reese-Bailey-Bain-Styles-Tate-Mauigua

Don’t drop past 9 (RT) is my number 9
And you get a stud so KC is the furthest back you trade with and you have to get their other late 1st to do it

I don’t consider Mauigua as good as the other 8 nit if we are set on a RT then get him as late as possible
 
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Gandhi

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We have one top 100 player while the rest of the division has multiple. Enough of the DR’s of the world, who are average NFL guys. MO needs a stud in RD1, he cannot miss on this pick. IMO he needs a starter level in RD2 as well. He has lots of ground to make up from previous drafts
Other than an offensive tackle, Jeremyiah Love and Arvell Reese are the two most likely to become studs. Bain has an outside chance, while Bailey and McCoy might potentially get there after a while.
 

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I actually had that situation several times, Maroon, where I kind of wanted to trade back, but at the same time I also think that the Cards need some stars. They have enough depth but lack the players that decide games. I mean, the analytics will tell you to trade back as many times as you possibly can, but obviously, the biggest talents go first, so it doesn’t help them much to have multiple late-round picks.

I agree, yes that's why I understand people who don't want to trade down, I'm actually ok if we don't but the problem comes in if you want to take a specific player like Simpson, if you do that, everything gets thrown off. Then you have two choices, trade down, get more draft capital, losing out on say, Love at that pick or use your 2nd and third to trade up to the bottom of the first, or say a 2027 2nd, now you're into more draft capital spent.

The best simulations I did were often staying put, consistently got A to A- on those, if you start trading you end up at a B+ or worse in general, its not that its impossible to get a great draft that way but it gets a lot harder.

I was doing it on one site you can undo the first two picks, trade with Las Vegas you have to give approx 2 firsts 26 and 27 2 seconds 26 and 27 and two thirds, 26 and 27 which adds up to 1015 points vs 1000 you get back for the first pick, the funny part is it causes the Jets to try and trade up and even Las Vegas again, obviously it's a glitch but you can often get 1300 vs 1000 points back for the pick, no way that works in real life, but I was just messing around, however you almost never get a good grade doing that as just staying put.
 
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Gandhi

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I agree, yes that's why I understand people who don't want to trade down, I'm actually ok if we don't but the problem comes in if you want to take a specific player like Simpson, if you do that, everything gets thrown off. Then you have two choices, trade down, get more draft capital, losing out on say, Love at that pick or use your 2nd and third to trade up to the bottom of the first, or say a 2027 2nd, now you're into more draft capital spent.

The best simulations I did were often staying put, consistently got A to A- on those, if you start trading you end up at a B+ or worse in general, its not that its impossible to get a great draft that way but it gets a lot harder.

I was doing it on one site you can undo the first two picks, trade with Las Vegas you have to give approx 2 firsts 26 and 27 2 seconds 26 and 27 and two thirds, 26 and 27 which adds up to 1015 points vs 1000 you get back for the first pick, the funny part is it causes the Jets to try and trade up and even Las Vegas again, obviously it's a glitch but you can often get 1300 vs 1000 points back for the pick, no way that works in real life, but I was just messing around, however you almost never get a good grade doing that as just staying put.
I understand your view. I think mine is that they need at least one star in the first round, and if they get a franchise quarterback as well, then I consider the first round a major success. And by franchise quarterback I don’t necessarily mean one of the best in the NFL, but one they can win with.

I am not sure who that star would be, though. Reese definitely have that potential, and I go back and forth on Bain. Love is basically already a superstar, but I don’t like taking non-premium positions that high in the first round.

Again, I think they will take Love, and I guess you could see it as a huge endorsement in LaFleur if he gets both Love and Simpson.
 

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