Elemental (Pixar)

[Chaplin]

Honestly, running numbers like that is one of my aspie traits. It's similar to running baseball stats for me. It's interesting to see how numbers run out and the totals vs what they cost to make. Trends and patterns appear.

Fair enough. Maybe it’s more a state of the business that most of these are overwhelmingly negative.

 

[Dback Jon]

I found it interesting when I saw the box office story on this flick - the staying power that was unexpected.

I went back and looked at articles after the opening weekend - at that time "experts" were predicted a domestic ceiling of $100-125, and international ceiling of $150 - for at best $275M Disney has to be happy that even if it doesn't break even, the loss is much less than expected and helped movie theatres.

 

[Dback Jon]

Question - for a movie like Elemental, what is it's value to Disney+? If it was sold to an outside streamer, what would it fetch?

 

[Cheesebeef]

Question - for a movie like Elemental, what is it's value to Disney+? If it was sold to an outside streamer, what would it fetch?

No clue on that one.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Fair enough. Maybe it’s more a state of the business that most of these are overwhelmingly negative.

We have been talking mainly about bombs lately since there's been a bunch of high profile ones. If you looked at threads like Top Gun or Avatar I know that Cheese and I had exchanges trying to forecast how well they were going to do throughout their runs. It's usually more fun too to talk about movies that are way off from their expectations either good or bad.

 

[Devilmaycare]

I found it interesting when I saw the box office story on this flick - the staying power that was unexpected.

I went back and looked at articles after the opening weekend - at that time "experts" were predicted a domestic ceiling of $100-125, and international ceiling of $150 - for at best $275M Disney has to be happy that even if it doesn't break even, the loss is much less than expected and helped movie theatres.

It ended up with great legs and way out performed its projection window based on its opening week. Few movies have been doing that lately.

 

[Cheesebeef]

We have been talking mainly about bombs lately since there's been a bunch of high profile ones. If you looked at threads like Top Gun or Avatar I know that Cheese and I had exchanges trying to forecast how well they were going to do throughout their runs. It's usually more fun too to talk about movies that are way off from their expectations either good or bad.

Same with Oppenheimer and Barbie that are crushing expectations.

They Barbenheimer pair was initially forecasted at around 90 million/45 million opening weekend.

That’s what they ended up making… IN WEEK 2! That’s incredible.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Same with Oppenheimer and Barbie that are crushing expectations.

They Barbenheimer pair was initially forecasted at around 90 million/45 million opening weekend.

That’s what they ended up making… IN WEEK 2! That’s incredible.

Yeah, the Barbenheimer synergy has been crazy. It's not what I expected. Usually 2 bigger movies opening at once ends up hurting at least one of them but these two are playing off of each other nicely. It has to be due to how different they are in both tone and subject matter. They're not stepping on each other's toes.

I've been working on a theory that Barbenheimer is helping Oppenheimer more than Barbie. A 3-hr, R-rated, biopic about about a scientist usually wouldn't run the way it is. There's some Nolan effect going on but I think Barbenheimer is giving it a lot more legs than if it was released solo.

BTW, both had $100m budgets so they should both be in the black already!

 

[Cheesebeef]

Yeah, the Barbenheimer synergy has been crazy. It's not what I expected. Usually 2 bigger movies opening at once ends up hurting at least one of them but these two are playing off of each other nicely. It has to be due to how different they are in both tone and subject matter. They're not stepping on each other's toes.

I've been working on a theory that Barbenheimer is helping Oppenheimer more than Barbie. A 3-hr, R-rated, biopic about about a scientist usually wouldn't run the way it is. There's some Nolan effect going on but I think Barbenheimer is giving it a lot more legs than if it was released solo.

BTW, both had $100m budgets so they should both be in the black already!

I def think the Barbenheimer hysteria is helping Oppenheimer, but Nolan has now made himself the unquestioned big ticket director of his generation. And maybe the ONLY one left whose name alone is going to equal big box office without any IP needed. Almost as if his name is IP itself.

Even though Tenet was far down his usual quality for me, I’m betting that if it opened post or pre-pandemic, it probably takes in at least 200 million domestic and over 600-700 million overall. All numbers that would be pretty impressive for an original action SciFi flick.

Oppy might end up at 300 million. That’s unheard in today’s market for an adult R rated drama.

Hell, that’s pretty unheard of for yesterdays market also.

 

[Covert Rain]

I def think the Barbenheimer hysteria is helping Oppenheimer, but Nolan has now made himself the unquestioned big ticket director of his generation. And maybe the ONLY one left whose name alone is going to equal big box office without any IP needed. Almost as if his name is IP itself.

Even though Tenet was far down his usual quality for me, I’m betting that if it opened post or pre-pandemic, it probably takes in at least 200 million domestic and over 600-700 million overall. All numbers that would be pretty impressive for an original action SciFi flick.

Oppy might end up at 300 million. That’s unheard in today’s market for an adult R rated drama.

Hell, that’s pretty unheard of for yesterdays market also.

Directors that you expect to have a great outing every single movie they make is few and far between.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Directors that you expect to have a great outing every single movie they make is few and far between.

yup. but it's more than that. Nolan is the only one who guarantees something on an epic scale that demands to be seen in the theaters at this point. Add that to the above and you've got a 1 of 1 for the most part.

Right now, the only other director who's a must see at the movies filmmaker is maybe Tarantino. That said, he's not the sure thing Nolan is, putting out a Hateful 8, which was a really niche flick that only really drew in big film buffs for the most part. And though his movies do well, their box office still pales in comparison to everything Nolan puts out.

 

[MigratingOsprey]

I think Oppenheimer is smartly packaged as well. It feels like an epic that you should see.

Also, the more I see the trailer in theaters the more I wanted to see the film in theaters

 

[Dr. Jones]

Adoring Pixar like I do, I am very glad it didn’t crater after that opening weekend. Flat is a win these days for Disney so I’ll take it.

 

[Covert Rain]

$150 Million domestic and crossing $400 million mark international. This movie is turning out to be an odd duck. Instead of a huge massive opening then slowly diminishing each week the movie had a smaller opening but has had more consistent weeks. Instead of being a churn and burn movie it's more like a slow burn. Had the studio pulled a quick trigger and released at home like so many other films that would have been a huge mistake. Revised projections have it hitting at least $430 million. Total cost including marketing is reported at 300 million. Looks like they are going to make that back or close to it not counting Merch, VOD, TV Network rights.

 

[Covert Rain]

It’s going to make a profit.

Pixar President on ‘Elemental’s’ Unlikely Box Office Rebound: ‘This Will Certainly Be a Profitable Film’

Pixar's president Jim Morris talks "Elemental," which is enjoying a box office rebound after stumbling in its debut.

variety.com

 

[Dback Jon]

It’s going to make a profit.

Pixar President on ‘Elemental’s’ Unlikely Box Office Rebound: ‘This Will Certainly Be a Profitable Film’

Pixar's president Jim Morris talks "Elemental," which is enjoying a box office rebound after stumbling in its debut.

variety.com

As I thought...

The other thing I’ll say about our film budgets is that our whole company exists only to make these films. So when we say a budget, that is everything it takes to run the whole company. Sometimes, the budgets [for other films] that get reported are physical production costs and don’t include the salaries of executives and things like that. Our budgets include all of that, so there’s some accounting context that gets lost. But that doesn’t mean they’re not expensive.


There are a lot of baked in costs allocated to the movie that would occur regardless of it the movie was made or not.

I wouldn't be surprised if the ACTUAL cash outlay specific to this film was under $150M

 

[Dback Jon]

Another point - patriots should be rushing to support this movie because...


One of the ways you make these films for less money, and almost all of our competitors do this, is to do work offshore. It’s only us and Disney Animation that makes animation films in the U.S. anymore with all of the artists under one roof.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

As I thought...

The other thing I’ll say about our film budgets is that our whole company exists only to make these films. So when we say a budget, that is everything it takes to run the whole company. Sometimes, the budgets [for other films] that get reported are physical production costs and don’t include the salaries of executives and things like that. Our budgets include all of that, so there’s some accounting context that gets lost. But that doesn’t mean they’re not expensive.


There are a lot of baked in costs allocated to the movie that would occur regardless of it the movie was made or not.

I wouldn't be surprised if the ACTUAL cash outlay specific to this film was under $150M

Yeah, but you can’t discount those corporate costs. They exist. They exist purely to make the films they make each year. If they didn’t make the films the company would disappear. And those corporate costs are necessary.

 

[Adrian]

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[Dr. Jones]

Labor day didn't get it to 500mm yet. Still a nice comeback for a movie thought DOA after the first month. Who really knows if it is really making money though. Disney is currently being sued for lying about box office numbers. SOURCE

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[Covert Rain]

Labor day didn't get it to 500mm yet. Still a nice comeback for a movie thought DOA after the first month. Who really knows if it is really making money though. Disney is currently being sued for lying about box office numbers. SOURCE

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No they are not. It's about how they are handling release windows, licensing fees in relation to streaming which partners are claiming cuts them out of revenue streams.

"This windowing of film distribution is designed to maximize profits for the studios (and for stakeholders like TSG) by preventing one distribution revenue stream from cannibalizing another,” the lawsuit says. “When windows are collapsed on one another, however, the studio (and its investors) miss out on significant potential sources of revenue.”

 

[Brian in Mesa]

Another point - patriots should be rushing to support this movie because...


One of the ways you make these films for less money, and almost all of our competitors do this, is to do work offshore. It’s only us and Disney Animation that makes animation films in the U.S. anymore with all of the artists under one roof.

No one is going to blindly support a film just because it was made in the USA. It has to appeal to them and hearing that there is an animated non-human non-binary character in it likely isn't all that appealing to most.

 

[Chaplin]

No one is going to blindly support a film just because it was made in the USA. It has to appeal to them and hearing that there is an animated non-human non-binary character in it likely isn't all that appealing to most.

I'm not sure that is just a sad observation or just a bigoted opinion with little to no proof.

 

[Brian in Mesa]

I'm not sure that is just a sad observation or just a bigoted opinion with little to no proof.

Well, I haven't seen the film, but I've seen chatter online about the character (Lake) and Newsweek and some other sites had stories on it so I'm sure it's a known thing in the real world. You honestly don't think that is something that could make some choose to skip the film?

 

[Chaplin]

Well, I haven't seen the film, but I've seen chatter online about the character (Lake) and Newsweek and some other sites had stories on it so I'm sure it's a known thing in the real world. You honestly don't think that is something that could make some choose to skip the film?

The quote said, "most", so yes, I think that can be questioned.