Troubling News on the Strength of Schedule Front

[kerouac9]

The consensus right now seems to be that we just survived a tough stretch of the schedule and things will get easier over the next 13 games. Football Outsiders just started adding opponent adjustments into their DVOA formula and ranking the strength of schedule.

Their results tell a different story. Yes, we played the fifth-best team by DVOA to open the season in KC, but since then we've played the 24th- (Vegas), 26th- (LARM), and 28th-ranked teams. Combined, that gives us the second-easiest schedule in the league through four weeks. Only Houston played weaker opponents.

Going forward, we have the fourth-most difficult schedule the rest of the year, with an real test ahead of us. Philly is second in DVOA, Seattle is 13th, New Orleans is 22nd, and Minnesota is 17th.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

The consensus right now seems to be that we just survived a tough stretch of the schedule and things will get easier over the next 13 games. Football Outsiders just started adding opponent adjustments into their DVOA formula and ranking the strength of schedule.

Their results tell a different story. Yes, we played the fifth-best team by DVOA to open the season in KC, but since then we've played the 24th- (Vegas), 26th- (LARM), and 28th-ranked teams. Combined, that gives us the second-easiest schedule in the league through four weeks. Only Houston played weaker opponents.

Going forward, we have the fourth-most difficult schedule the rest of the year, with an real test ahead of us. Philly is second in DVOA, Seattle is 13th, New Orleans is 22nd, and Minnesota is 17th.

I have a feeling it will flip again and be closer to the start of the season, than it is now.

 

[kerouac9]

I have a feeling it will flip again and be closer to the start of the season, than it is now.

I think my point of view on it is that we will have to show over the next few weeks that we can be competitive with some mediocre teams. I'm not super-confident that we'll be able to hang with Philly this weekend, but we have to hold our own against the Vikings and Saints.

We look a lot like a Good Bad team. This season that could be enough to finish 9-8 and get the second wild card slot in the NFC, but we can't drop games to low-quality teams like the Rams.

 

[Arz101]

Cardinals can hang with many teams but can they beat them? Not much confidence at this time but 2-2 does feel like 2-2

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I think my point of view on it is that we will have to show over the next few weeks that we can be competitive with some mediocre teams. I'm not super-confident that we'll be able to hang with Philly this weekend, but we have to hold our own against the Vikings and Saints.

We look a lot like a Good Bad team. This season that could be enough to finish 9-8 and get the second wild card slot in the NFC, but we can't drop games to low-quality teams like the Rams.

I'd agree.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

We look a lot like a Good Bad team.

Sad but true. A team that could do something if they had some discipline and could get out of their own way.

 

[gmabel830]

We look a lot like a Good Bad team. This season that could be enough to finish 9-8 and get the second wild card slot in the NFC, but we can't drop games to low-quality teams like the Rams.

I think we look more like a Bad Good team than a Good Bad team

 

[kerouac9]

I think we look more like a Bad Good team than a Good Bad team

What have you seen this season that makes you think that if you peeled back the layers we're a good team?

 

[Cheesebeef]

losing that Rams game stings. that team isn't good right now. shoulda been a good spot to get away with one early... if we didn't look so completely pathetic in first halfs... well.. and entire games on offense in that one.

 

[82CardsGrad]

losing that Rams game stings. that team isn't good right now. shoulda been a good spot to get away with one early... if we didn't look so completely pathetic in first halfs... well.. and entire games on offense in that one.

We had no business winning that Raiders game... and looked like god poo against arguably the worst team in the NFL (Panthers). As bad as the Rams look, they're better than the Cards.

 

[BritCard]

The consensus right now seems to be that we just survived a tough stretch of the schedule and things will get easier over the next 13 games. Football Outsiders just started adding opponent adjustments into their DVOA formula and ranking the strength of schedule.

Their results tell a different story. Yes, we played the fifth-best team by DVOA to open the season in KC, but since then we've played the 24th- (Vegas), 26th- (LARM), and 28th-ranked teams. Combined, that gives us the second-easiest schedule in the league through four weeks. Only Houston played weaker opponents.

Going forward, we have the fourth-most difficult schedule the rest of the year, with an real test ahead of us. Philly is second in DVOA, Seattle is 13th, New Orleans is 22nd, and Minnesota is 17th.

Too early. All those teams are going to move greatly as more games are played. As they already have.

The problem with DVOA is that its at his most accurate when all games are played. Right now it's not really accurate.

 

[football karma]

the NFC and the NFC west in particular has compressed.

the Niners arguably look the best of late, but also lost to the Bears and Broncos. Their defense will keep them in games, their offense will keep the games close. Close games become very random.

Seattle looks better than advertised, mostly on the strength of Geno Smith. Wonder if that lasts. Football Outsiders says no. Defensively pretty poor.

The Rams -- they just don't look right. The new o-line personnel, even when healthy weren't good and they aren't healthy now.

if the Cardinals offense performs to its talent, they will be in it until the end. 13 more weeks of what we have seen -- and 8 wins is the ceiling.

 

[oaken1]

I think my point of view on it is that we will have to show over the next few weeks that we can be competitive with some mediocre teams. I'm not super-confident that we'll be able to hang with Philly this weekend, but we have to hold our own against the Vikings and Saints.

We look a lot like a Good Bad team. This season that could be enough to finish 9-8 and get the second wild card slot in the NFC, but we can't drop games to low-quality teams like the Rams.

agree..as opposed to being a Bad good team...
always makes me a little sick when we are in a position where we just have to beat the teams we are supposed to beat

but losing to the lambs was inexcusable....especially throwing at Ramsey when every other corner on their team was washing cars for a living a week before the game.

the NFC as a whole got weaker this off season...but somehow we managed to keep pace with the decline

 

[kerouac9]

Too early. All those teams are going to move greatly as more games are played. As they already have.

The problem with DVOA is that its at his most accurate when all games are played. Right now it's not really accurate.

Yes. Models are usually the most accurate when they have the most data to process. That's actually the "problem" with all data-based models. Analytics are valuable because sample sizes in football are pretty small (17 games, about 100 snaps per game), so it's been harder for Big Data to start delivering quality results.

Right now the model is 40% DVOA for games played and 60% their preseason rankings. You can see on their site what the unadjusted DVOA looks like.

 

[Garthshort]

Trying to be objective, I'm waiting for the first six games. If we can go 3-3 (and don't incur any major injuries), I like our playoff chances.

 

[kerouac9]

Trying to be objective, I'm waiting for the first six games. If we can go 3-3 (and don't incur any major injuries), I like our playoff chances.

So if we lose by 10+ to Philly at home and beat Seattle by <7 points, you'll feel good about our playoff hopes? What would those results really tell you?

It feels AWFUL to look down the schedule and see home games and not feel like we have a good chance in any or all of them. We used to have one of the better home-field advantages in the league -- WTH happened?

 

[gmabel830]

What have you seen this season that makes you think that if you peeled back the layers we're a good team?

There’s enough talent for this to be a good team. They have obviously not executed and been coached where it has consistently shown up in games.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

So if we lose by 10+ to Philly at home and beat Seattle by <7 points, you'll feel good about our playoff hopes? What would those results really tell you?

It feels AWFUL to look down the schedule and see home games and not feel like we have a good chance in any or all of them. We used to have one of the better home-field advantages in the league -- WTH happened?

This is the most troubling part of this team.

 

[gmabel830]

Like Andy Isabella drops, we have lost zero of the games we haven’t played yet. So there!

 

[kerouac9]

There’s enough talent for this to be a good team. They have obviously not executed and been coached where it has consistently shown up in games.

This isn't meant to be confrontational, but what's your definition of a "good team"?

Is it somewhere in the middle 10 of NFL teams?

Like, I don't think this team is talented enough to beat these teams the majority of the time (any given Sunday, etc., etc.):

Buffalo
Miami
Baltimore
Cincy
KC
Los Angeles Chargers
Philly
Green Bay
Minnesota
Tampa
LA Rams (obviously)

That's 11 teams that IMO we clearly don't have enough talent to compete with. If that was our schedule, I'd expect us to go 3-8.

Right now, the teams we'd be favored against are probably Carolina (though we were underdogs against them last week), Houston, Washington, Detroit, Chicago, Pittsburgh, and maybe the Jets. I just can't define being the best of the worst teams as "good."

 

[dreamcastrocks]

This isn't meant to be confrontational, but what's your definition of a "good team"?

Is it somewhere in the middle 10 of NFL teams?

Like, I don't think this team is talented enough to beat these teams the majority of the time (any given Sunday, etc., etc.):

Buffalo
Miami
Baltimore
Cincy
KC
Los Angeles Chargers
Philly
Green Bay
Minnesota
Tampa
LA Rams (obviously)

That's 11 teams that IMO we clearly don't have enough talent to compete with. If that was our schedule, I'd expect us to go 3-8.

Right now, the teams we'd be favored against are probably Carolina (though we were underdogs against them last week), Houston, Washington, Detroit, Chicago, Pittsburgh, and maybe the Jets. I just can't define being the best of the worst teams as "good."

I think to be good you need to be in the top half of the league. I don't think we are there yet, but things could change.

 

[Garthshort]

So if we lose by 10+ to Philly at home and beat Seattle by <7 points, you'll feel good about our playoff hopes? What would those results really tell you?

It feels AWFUL to look down the schedule and see home games and not feel like we have a good chance in any or all of them. We used to have one of the better home-field advantages in the league -- WTH happened?

Of course I'd have to see how the games play out, but the two major reasons why I'll feel good about the team.
1. The obvious, D Hop returns.
2. The defense has been improving, and I'd have a couple more games to see if we're still trending up.

 

[DVontel]

Of course I'd have to see how the games play out, but the two major reasons why I'll feel good about the team.
1. The obvious, D Hop returns.
2. The defense has been improving, and I'd have a couple more games to see if we're still trending up.

I don’t think I’ve seen you criticize a single thing about this organization.

 

[Garthshort]

I don’t think I’ve seen you criticize a single thing about this organization.

That's because you're not paying attention. I've said all along that Arizona has some of the worst fans in the League.

 

[Zalixar]

That's because you're not paying attention. I've said all along that Arizona has some of the worst fans in the League.

Seems you don't get out much. Plenty of worse fans out there and it's not even close.

Arizona as a state has a collection of the worst professional sports franchises ever assembled, and again, it's not even close.