The Market (2022-2026)

[elindholm]

I've decided to consider the hypothesis that all of the people who tell you to invest in emerging markets have emerging markets shorted. Say what you want about the USA, but it's still the strongest economy in the world by a large margin.

 

[Folster]

I've decided to consider the hypothesis that all of the people who tell you to invest in emerging markets have emerging markets shorted. Say what you want about the USA, but it's still the strongest economy in the world by a large margin.

Yeah. It's still living off its early 2000s run of outperformance when China was coming alive globally.

 

[BigRedRage]

I've decided to consider the hypothesis that all of the people who tell you to invest in emerging markets have emerging markets shorted. Say what you want about the USA, but it's still the strongest economy in the world by a large margin.

I totally feel that whatever the media pumps is what to avoid more than half the time.

 

[dscher]

I totally feel that whatever the media pumps is what to avoid more than all the time.

Ftfy.

 

[elindholm]

REGI jumping on news that it will be bought out by Chevron. Looks like I'll clear 45% after holding it two months. I'm trying to figure out if I might as well go ahead and sell it now. Once the buyout price is locked in, the price asymptotes to it while sellers treat it like a short-term certificate of deposit.

Edit: Apparently it's a done deal at 61.50, to close "later in 2022." I went ahead and sold at 60.75 to put the funds to other use.

 

[Folster]

REGI jumping on news that it will be bought out by Chevron. Looks like I'll clear 45% after holding it two months. I'm trying to figure out if I might as well go ahead and sell it now. Once the buyout price is locked in, the price asymptotes to it while sellers treat it like a short-term certificate of deposit.

I'd be tempted to sell the news bounce. Chances are it will come back down to earth a bit after the excitement and volume drops.

I was holding Sinclair, SBGI a while back for a play on NextGen OTA, and they randomly acquired the Fox RSNs. Shot up over 100% in a day. I stupidly did not take profit. Ended up breaking even basically when I finally sold months later. The news hype was much better than the reality of increased debt and other integration issues.

 

[Finito]

I totally feel that whatever the media pumps is what to avoid more than half the time.

Huh I Said that and was labeled a conspiracy theorist lol

 

[dscher]

labeled a conspiracy theorist

That's when you know you're onto something..

 

[Folster]

That's when you know you're onto something..

The opposite of being critical of media pumps is not uncritically buying into YouTube and Reddit pumps.

 

[dscher]

The opposite of being critical of media pumps is not uncritically buying into YouTube and Reddit pumps.

Agreed. But, I know what you're getting at... I guess playing the odds nowadays put me and some others into the camp of the little no name YouTube guy or gal offering financial advice over a financial guru on CNBC with conflict of interest written all over him. Tough financial environment to navigate and trust in right now though if you don't have the background for it to be sure..

 

[Folster]

Agreed. But, I know what you're getting at... I guess playing the odds nowadays put me and some others into the camp of the little no name YouTube guy or gal offering financial advice over a financial guru on CNBC with conflict of interest written all over him. Tough financial environment to navigate and trust in right now though if you don't have the background for it to be sure..

I was talking more about the speculative asset bubble and all of the hypesters involved.

 

[dscher]

I was talking more about the speculative asset bubble and all of the hypesters involved.

That's why I agreed.

 

[Finito]

The opposite of being critical of media pumps is not uncritically buying into YouTube and Reddit pumps.

That’s why you never take anyone no matter who they are as 100% gospel.

You hear something interesting and then it’s up to you to do your own research and see if you like what you find.

 

[Devilmaycare]

That’s why you never take anyone no matter who they are as 100% gospel.

You hear something interesting and then it’s up to you to do your own research and see if you like what you find.

What? That's not how you do it. That sounds like paper hands. You go onto WSB and buy whatever is being talked about then never sell it. Must be a strong ape!

 

[dscher]

Up 2,3,4 percent...Down 2,3,4 percent. Things we should get used to.

 

[dscher]

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[dscher]

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Oof

 

[Folster]

Added to XLF as falling rates and global financial uncertainty has caused a 10% pullback of that sector from its recent highs. Also put in a buy limit of MMM at 145 that just executed as I type this. It's guaranteed to hit a new 52 week low now.

 

[Folster]

The current month's contract which is April of WTI oil, ticker CL.1 is up over 10% today to $105.50. Gas stations are probably already increasing prices. This is after news that the US would be releasing some of the strategic reserves to try to soothe possible spikes, so not good.

 

[dscher]

The current month's contract which is April of WTI oil, ticker CL.1 is up over 10% today to $105.50. Gas stations are probably already increasing prices. This is after news that the US would be releasing some of the strategic reserves to try to soothe possible spikes, so not good.

The dollar / crude relationship (correlation) will have to diverge at some point...and when it does it could be quite the sight to behold.

 

[Folster]

Nice rebound led by value stocks today.

 

[Folster]

I expect another pull back next week when Feb CPI numbers are released unless they are better than expected. I'm hearing possibilities of an 8 handle on CPI. That would be a shock to the market.

 

[dscher]

I expect another pull back next week when Feb CPI numbers are released unless they are better than expected. I'm hearing possibilities of an 8 handle on CPI. That would be a shock to the market.

I don't even know how much we can trust these inflation numbers anymore TBH. If core inflation is through the roof the 10 yr yield should be reflecting this and going up significantly like oil is right now. Yields, especially the long end, usually have a strong correlation with inflation. The 70s reflected it well.

But yes, regardless, I agree that it will shock the market.

 

[dscher]

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[dscher]

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