Yet Another Question

[Harry]

What’s the impact difference between getting a second round pick versus a third. There are always exceptions but generally speaking you hope to get a starter in round 2, though maybe not an immediate starter. Round 3 is generally thought of as a role player. Of course the difference between late 2 and early 3 shrinks. Also this generality is impacted by how hard it is to find starters at a position. You can often get a top guard, center, running back or safety in round 3. Some would add ILBs.

 

[Finito]

You know as well as I do your more likely to strike out than hit a home run in rounds 2 and 3 and the odds of getting quality players only goes down the further you are in the draft.

I have no idea why teams don’t just trade away everything from 4 to 7 trying to move up

 

[SissyBoyFloyd]

You know as well as I do your more likely to strike out than hit a home run in rounds 2 and 3 and the odds of getting quality players only goes down the further you are in the draft.

I have no idea why teams don’t just trade away everything from 4 to 7 trying to move up

You have to do the math still. Let's say a round is worth 30% success (maybe say R4 just for argument sake). And R5's success rate is only 20%. If you have 2 R5s you might trade them for a R4. But aren't you losing 10% chance that 1 player would make it? 20+20% > 30%.

 

[Solar7]

You have to do the math still. Let's say a round is worth 30% success (maybe say R4 just for argument sake). And R5's success rate is only 20%. If you have 2 R5s you might trade them for a R4. But aren't you losing 10% chance that 1 player would make it? 20+20% > 30%.

Not only this, but the belly of your roster counts for something too. Special Teams are still played. Young guys are the way you keep your salary cap down.

 

[wit3card]

You have to do the math still. Let's say a round is worth 30% success (maybe say R4 just for argument sake). And R5's success rate is only 20%. If you have 2 R5s you might trade them for a R4. But aren't you losing 10% chance that 1 player would make it? 20+20% > 30%.

36% vs 20% but yeah 2 4th give you more chances, more or less that is the analytic behind Belicheck trading down all the time.

 

[slanidrac16]

Harry what’s your take on Matos?

 

[JeffGollin]

The difference in talent between 2nd and 3rd rounders depends on who's doing the trading and where the plateau in 2nd round talent drops off (This differs from year to year). Every draft has its own sets of talent-plateaus - both over all and by position. This varies from year to year and influences the amount of talent round by round.

I personally view this draft as having enough 2nd round players to extend deep into the 3rd round. (Since the Cards don't have a 2nd round pick (yet), we should hope that the talent plateau runs deep into round 4).

 

[Harry]

Harry what’s your take on Matos?

Solid potential. Figures to go low 1.

 

[Garthshort]

This year might be the exception because of the in-person scouting restrictions (Feb-Apr). Think that some pretty good players will fall to the later rounds. Also, less impact in pounding the table for players. JMO.

 

[WildBB]

This year might be the exception because of the in-person scouting restrictions (Feb-Apr). Think that some pretty good players will fall to the later rounds. Also, less impact in pounding the table for players. JMO.

Yeah, RB's have been making big contributions who've been picked pretty late.
And also a certain QB whose now in the conference.