Cardinals draft Dilemma

[slanidrac16]

Here's how I see it.

We are set up to win this year. The window is closing. So if we draft a QB, he will be of no use this year. We need to improve THIS year to make a run.

I think we need a WR and CB with our first two picks. However, if we can fill those spots with our first and third pick, we might be able to use our second and additional picks to move up and grab the qb we think is the QBOF.

If we take a QB with our first pick and we whiff, it will set this franchise back 3 or 4 years.

Our history says let's just get a QB next year through free agency and forget about drafting a rookie QB.

 

[az jam]

IMO draft best defense player at #13 and move up to end of first round to get QBOF.

 

[JeffGollin]

We shouldn't think ourselves into knots & over-strategize.

Just take the highest guy on our board. 3 of 4 times the pick will fill a need anyway.

 

[Lagerfilled]

We shouldn't think ourselves into knots & over-strategize.

Just take the highest guy on our board. 3 of 4 times the pick will fill a need anyway.

Precisely! We already sorta know through leaks to local media honks that the Cards love 2 Safeties, 2 ILBs, and 1 CB at 13. If true, one of them will undoubtedly be there. They've also indicated they'd prefer not to draft QBOF at 13 and thus miss on a premier defensive player.

BASK have also been saying they'd really prefer to trade down several slots and get more picks. This would allow them to grab someone like G Lamp and then possibly trade back into round 1 for their QBOF.

They could also go full subterfuge and select the likes of TE Howard / Njoku or WR Wiiliams / Davis, even though they've been telling everyone they can get one later. Least likely scenario IMHO!

Or they take their QBOF at 13, which is way too early given the talent and miss on a potential All-Pro defensive stud, while subjecting themselves to fan rioting and ridicule. Slight possibility, but hopefully they're smarter than that.

What I think happens...

1) They draft the best player available on their board
2) They trade down some, draft a need, and then back into late round 1 or early round 2 to get their QBOF
3) QBOF at 13
4) They draft someone we don't expect like TE, WR, QB, or DE

What I'm hoping for...

R1P13 - Haason Reddick - Stud athlete who can play ILB, Edge, and ST; Difference maker on all 3 downs

R2P45 - Budda Baker - Fantastic centerfielder with alpha attitude who loves to hit and has superior ball skills ala Earl Thomas

R3P77 - **** Tabor - Outstanding cover guy with ball skills who's not afraid to mix it up underneath

R4 - Best available TE

OR

R1P13 - Haason Reddick - Stud athlete who can play ILB, Edge, and ST; Difference maker on all 3 downs

R2P45 - JuJu Smith-Shuster - Big, physical WR that can play outside and underneath; super competitor ala Anquan Boldin

R3P77 - Josh Jones - Heat seeking missile in the deep middle; got some ADub in him and comes from NC State

R4 - Best available CB

As you can see, neither scenario has us drafting our QBOF. I think we trade for someone like Jacoby Brissett or Cardale Jones. I know they liked both in last year's draft.

 

[don7031]

The most desired QBOF is Sam Darnold who will be going number 1 overall next year. So go outside the box and trade this year's pick and a conditional either way to a team who should be drafting at or near the top next year ie. Rams, Jets, 49er's.

That was my contribution to not going to happen pre-draft nonsense.

The organizational philosophy is to ease rookies into the lineup. If a QBOF prospect that the team really likes is there at 13, that's the direction they should go.

 

[GatorAZ]

Ppl still think first rd picks are guaranteed to make immediate impact? Have we learned anything the last five years??

 

[juza76]

Ppl still think first rd picks are guaranteed to make immediate impact? Have we learned anything the last five years??

right , nothing is sure..everybody is a project, the draft grades depend on talent and professionalism(discipline)

 

[Jetstream Green]

The defensive talent in this draft looks great but we know very well that unless this is the greatest defensive draft of all time, a lot of these can't miss studs will actually be just solid non duds in reality which is alright. What I am saying is that maybe we should stop thinking like all these defensive guys are Pro Bowlers. The hype that this draft is the next coming of a new wing in Canton should be tempered which makes for a trade down attractive... like every draft, you have to get lucky and select one of the few which is truly special and I think Hooker is one of those few

 

[BullheadCardFan]

R1P13 - Haason Reddick - Stud athlete who can play ILB, Edge, and ST; Difference maker on all 3 downs

R2P45 - Budda Baker - Fantastic centerfielder with alpha attitude who loves to hit and has superior ball skills ala Earl Thomas

R3P77 - **** Tabor - Outstanding cover guy with ball skills who's not afraid to mix it up underneath

R4 - Best available TE

I could live with this and it fills a lot of holes. R4 not sure about TE, WR might be a better option.

 

[Solar7]

Looking at us getting lucky on two QBs in the twilight of their careers twice in the past nearly 30 years is hardly "history says." I feel like people have forgotten Jeff Blake, Kevin Kolb, Shaun King, and the absolute dreck retreads we've trotted out there before 1998.

A QBOF whiff won't set us back 3 or 4 years (especially not the way they're paid anymore), not having a decent QB will. If teams could look to free agency for decent QBs, guys like Mike Glennon wouldn't be making $15 million per. People forget that's more what we're looking at - overpaying next year's Osweiler or Glennon instead of snagging Kurt or Carson.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Looking at us getting lucky on two QBs in the twilight of their careers twice in the past nearly 30 years is hardly "history says." I feel like people have forgotten Jeff Blake, Kevin Kolb, Shaun King, and the absolute dreck retreads we've trotted out there before 1998.

A QBOF whiff won't set us back 3 or 4 years (especially not the way they're paid anymore), not having a decent QB will. If teams could look to free agency for decent QBs, guys like Mike Glennon wouldn't be making $15 million per. People forget that's more what we're looking at - overpaying next year's Osweiler or Glennon instead of snagging Kurt or Carson.

I agree with you. Unless you are a Larry Fitzgerald fan or Arians fan before you are a Cardinal fan, then this franchise has to treat the QB position with a sense of urgency now. Rookies for the most part are drafted for the future after at least a year of experience before they really can make an impact towards their potential. The draft is filled with lucking out at the QB position because it is so damn hard to equate college success to NFL success, and having two years to solve the position is better than looking for nuts once it starts to snow (stupid squirrel analogy but you get the point). This team is going to be the same level of mediocrity we have endured in the past if they do not get a young QB pronto. The whole idea of waiting another year when your starter at the most important position took time to consider retirement is negligent. I want this team to be a potential playoff team every year because I am planning to continue being a Cardinal fan

 

[Stout]

Here's how I see it.

We are set up to win this year. The window is closing. So if we draft a QB, he will be of no use this year. We need to improve THIS year to make a run.

I think we need a WR and CB with our first two picks. However, if we can fill those spots with our first and third pick, we might be able to use our second and additional picks to move up and grab the qb we think is the QBOF.

If we take a QB with our first pick and we whiff, it will set this franchise back 3 or 4 years.

Our history says let's just get a QB next year through free agency and forget about drafting a rookie QB.

This is exactly the type of panic mentality that leads to Cleveland Browns-ville through depletion of the roster and reaching in the draft. You DON'T go into the draft saying we HAVE to take two positions in our first two picks. That's crazy talk, and exactly how you fail. Damn the torpedoes, forget about the future, we ONLY have today! Oh, crap, we didn't win the Super Bowl. Now what? LOL

No, you do your best to win today while managing and planning for the future. All in right now, damn it! doesn't work. Not in the NFL, not in MLB when fans want teams to mortgage their futures for rental players. It leads to dismantling a roster, not building one up.

 

[Cardiac]

I agree with you. Unless you are a Larry Fitzgerald fan or Arians fan before you are a Cardinal fan, then this franchise has to treat the QB position with a sense of urgency now. The whole idea of waiting another year when your starter at the most important position took time to consider retirement is negligent. I want this team to be a potential playoff team every year because I am planning to continue being a Cardinal fan

I'm a me fan so I want the Cards to win a SB and I believe the window is still open. Just because we need a QBOF doesn't mean any of these are the answer. It would be negligent to take Ponder or Bortles or Osweiler or Glennon or Geno Smith or ........ the list is endless with the 13th overall pick and history shows us taking a QB outside of the top 5 picks is like playing the lottery.

If BASK draft a QB at 13 I will not be excited but I will be hopeful. If they draft one of the D Studs I will be excited and hopeful.

 

[Solar7]

I'm a me fan so I want the Cards to win a SB and I believe the window is still open. Just because we need a QBOF doesn't mean any of these are the answer. It would be negligent to take Ponder or Bortles or Osweiler or Glennon or Geno Smith or ........ the list is endless with the 13th overall pick and history shows us taking a QB outside of the top 5 picks is like playing the lottery.

If BASK draft a QB at 13 I will not be excited but I will be hopeful. If they draft one of the D Studs I will be excited and hopeful.

I believe the window is open now, but after two years of our 1st round pick taking a red shirt year, I can't say that anyone that we pick is going to particularly change how I feel about winning in 2017. The only player I feel we realistically have a shot at that could impact us this year is Foster - and I have serious doubts about his longevity.

 

[Cardiac]

I believe the window is open now, but after two years of our 1st round pick taking a red shirt year, I can't say that anyone that we pick is going to particularly change how I feel about winning in 2017. The only player I feel we realistically have a shot at that could impact us this year is Foster - and I have serious doubts about his longevity.

I have yet to find anyone who believes there is a single QB in this draft that is worthy of a 1st rd pick. I do expect 4 to be drafted in the first rd and I expect that they will all bust or at best be average. I don't want the Cards to waste a 13th overall pick on a lottery ticket this year.

 

[Jetstream Green]

I'm a me fan so I want the Cards to win a SB and I believe the window is still open. Just because we need a QBOF doesn't mean any of these are the answer. It would be negligent to take Ponder or Bortles or Osweiler or Glennon or Geno Smith or ........ the list is endless with the 13th overall pick and history shows us taking a QB outside of the top 5 picks is like playing the lottery.

If BASK draft a QB at 13 I will not be excited but I will be hopeful. If they draft one of the D Studs I will be excited and hopeful.

I feel you but I would not judge the current draft by the past since things are changing rapidly from the status quo of yesteryears

 

[Cardiac]

I feel you but I would not judge the current draft by the past since things are changing rapidly from the status quo of yesteryears

Not sure about the rapidly changing part. I expect 4 teams will reach and take a QB in the 1st rd this year and those 4 teams will be looking for a QB 3 to 4 years from now.

Now maybe the issue is that most colleges are running some version of the pistol or spread offense and so we can't get a true picture of the talent level of these QB's and some could surprise. So much of judging these QB's now will have to be guessing if they have the "it" factor and Brady like will to win.

 

[cardncubfan]

Not sure about the rapidly changing part. I expect 4 teams will reach and take a QB in the 1st rd this year and those 4 teams will be looking for a QB 3 to 4 years from now.

Now maybe the issue is that most colleges are running some version of the pistol or spread offense and so we can't get a true picture of the talent level of these QB's and some could surprise. So much of judging these QB's now will have to be guessing if they have the "it" factor and Brady like will to win.

3 of the 4 will. The team that takes Mahomes will not.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Not sure about the rapidly changing part. I expect 4 teams will reach and take a QB in the 1st rd this year and those 4 teams will be looking for a QB 3 to 4 years from now.

Now maybe the issue is that most colleges are running some version of the pistol or spread offense and so we can't get a true picture of the talent level of these QB's and some could surprise. So much of judging these QB's now will have to be guessing if they have the "it" factor and Brady like will to win.

From this point on for a majority of QB classes to come, you are going to have to trust your scouting department and see that college QB once they adapt to the NFL. Teams which have a crappy coaching staff will fail and those with a good staff will succeed on a higher percentage. I do not buy that 'next' year will be resoundingly better, they have been saying that for a while now. The second round talent now is the new first round talent in my opinion

 

[Cardiac]

3 of the 4 will. The team that takes Mahomes will not.

I have to admit that Mahomes intrigues me, but so did ML and Cutler and Skelton and..............

 

[Lagerfilled]

I have yet to find anyone who believes there is a single QB in this draft that is worthy of a 1st rd pick. I do expect 4 to be drafted in the first rd and I expect that they will all bust or at best be average. I don't want the Cards to waste a 13th overall pick on a lottery ticket this year.

I've got news for you (and me), they're ALL lottery tickets.

 

[Cardiac]

I've got news for you (and me), they're ALL lottery tickets.

Fitz wasn't a lottery ticket. PP2 wasn't a lottery ticket. Taking a QB is at least 10 times more a risk then a regular position player.

 

[cardpa]

Since 2010 there have been 84 QBs drafted. Of these Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck, Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Trevor Siemian, Carson Wentz, Nick Foles, Brock Osweiler, Tyrod Taylor, Mike Glennon, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott have really done anything worth mentioning in the NFL. Of these, you can say Newton has had some success since he did go to a SB although that seem to be a career year for him as some of his others were pedestrian at best. Dalton has been steady but nothing spectacular, Bortles has started a good number of games but hasn't been consistent, and Luck has been above average but doesn't have a good team around him. Prescott had a great rookie year but we have seen others have a bright year or two then fall like a shooting star. The rest have been average starters to competent and somewhat inconsistent starters. Of all these you could say Luck is a legit franchise QB and Newton is borderline. Carr has shown the potential to be one and I think it's too early to anoint Prescott as one. Remember RGIII first year was a quite a success. Dalton has been competent but not a top tier QB. The rest all have warts. Now looking at this you have one legit franchise QB taken in the last 7 years. What are the odds you are going to find one this year? One out of 84 is a .011% chance. It seems that as the college game has moved away from any type of pro style offense the odds of getting a QB anywhere near the level of say a Brady or Rodgers or even a Rivers is pretty slim. Sorry I almost forgot about Wilson. Wilson is near franchise or is franchise level. So even if we make Wilson a franchise QB the odds only increase to .023% chance. Thinking you are going to find that next franchise QB is pretty non existent. I think the best a team could hope for is to find a competent QB who fits into your offense and hope you can develop both physically and mentally as well as break poor habits and one that can be some sort of leader who the team believes in. I personally think you need to select one that you believe has the mental capacity to learn the pro game and learn to go through his reads and move in the pocket and not one that will simply take off anytime there is pressure or the first read is not open.

There were 19 first round selections since 2010. Of those Bradford, Newton, Luck, Tannehill, Bortles, Mariota, Winston, RGIII and Bridgewater have been legitimate starters (by starters I mean played in the majority of their team's games for two seasons or more) since their selection. Wentz started all 16 games for the Eagles. Nine, (Taylor, Kaepernick, Dalton, Cousins, Foles, Wilson, Carr, Siemian, and Prescott) who were selected in the second round or later have also been starters for their teams under the same criteria again with Prescott and Siemian being a 16 games starter for their teams. Doesn't seem like there is any advantage to reaching for a QB in round one is going to net you a starter that will be any better than one in a later round.

 

[Solar7]

Fitz wasn't a lottery ticket. PP2 wasn't a lottery ticket. Taking a QB is at least 10 times more a risk then a regular position player.

Then... Garrison Hearst wasn't a lottery ticket. Simeon Rice wasn't a lottery ticket. Andre Wadsworth wasn't a lottery ticket. Leonard Davis wasn't a lottery ticket.

You can cherry pick the successes all you want, but just looking at top 5 picks in AZ that weren't QBs, they were lottery tickets that didn't bring success to the Cardinals.

 

[Solar7]

QB Stats

Sensible numbers, but keep in mind that last year 7/12 playoff teams had QBs who were selected in the first round.

In 2015-2016, this number was 8/12.

In both years, only three playoff teams were led by QBs drafted outside the top 2 rounds, and they were the same 3 teams.

Over 50% of playoff quarterbacks in recent history have been drafted in the 1st.