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Xavier Musketeers guard Roddie Anderson III (0) reaches out for a loose ball in the first half of a NCAA men’s basketball game between the Xavier Musketeers and the Butler Bulldogs, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026, at Cintas Center in Cincinnati. | Frank Bowen IV/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
This has been a disappointing season for Xavier in some facets. While everyone knew there was some rebuilding to do and a roster to sort, perhaps better than .500 was in some minds. The team has been fun to watch, just lacked some final product. There is reason for hope, just some frustration that has come along with it.
Imagine, though, that you thought this season was going to be a serious progression forward. Imagine that the first few bracketologies featured your team. Imagine that the first NET rankings had you in the low 20s. You’d be pretty excited about all of that, right? That’s Butler. They have dropped 60 spots in the NET since it first came out. After starting 7-1 they have gone 7-12, had a stretch of six straight losses, and completely torpedoed any chance they had at the NCAA tournament and Thad Matta’s legacy.
You hate to see it.
Team Fingerprint
Butler’s offense has been very different in Big East play than it was in the non-conference. Since conference play started they don’t shoot the ball well from anywhere and have been blocked more than any other Big East team. They rebound like a mid-pack team. What they do best is get to the line and not turn the ball over. They do those things well enough that they land basically in the middle of the Big East in offensive efficiency.
Which is good, because their defense is horrible. Worst in the Big East level bad. That comes mostly from their interior defense and their defensive rebounding. They are beyond bad at both. The only thing that the Bulldogs do that is even above average is not send opponents to the line. Other than that, they just aren’t very good at much of anything. Whether they play slow or play fast, they give up points.
Players
| Starting matchups | |
|---|---|---|
Finley Bizjack | Point Guard | All Wright |
Junior | Class | Sophomore |
6’4″, 190 | Measurements | 6’3″, 190 |
17.5/2.2/2.5 | Game line | 7.8/1.7/2.1 |
44.3/35.7/85.4 | Shooting line | 48.6/45.6/81.6 |
| Bizjack isn’t a true point, but he’s the closest thing Butler has in a lineup decimated by injuries. He’s a good free throw shooter and gets to the line really well, but his scoring from the field has been slowed by having to hunt his own shots a little more. He’s still very efficient overall thanks to his FT numbers and the fact that he never turns the ball over. | |
Evan Haywood | Shooting Guard | Malik Messina-Moore |
Sophomore | Class | Senior |
6’4″, 200 | Measurements | 6’5″, 200 |
7.5/1.9/1.3 | Game line | 10.9/2.9/4 |
36.7/37/75 | Shooting line | 37.4/34.1/78.8 |
| Haywood is a game time decision, but I’m leaving him here for the time being. He’s a spot-up shooter who shouldn’t be forced into a bigger role, but he has been. His number aside from hitting 37% of his threes are functionally absent and even that has dropped to just 32.9% in conference play. If his knee injury is affecting his lift, he doesn’t have a lot of other ways to impact the game. | |
Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor | Small Forward | Tre Carroll |
Freshman | Class | Senior |
6’6″, 220 | Measurements | 6’8″, 235 |
4.3/2.1/2 | Game line | 18.4/5.9/2.7 |
35.1/13.3/58 | Shooting line | 50.8/34.5/68.1 |
| DNP all of November, spot minutes in December and January, starter in February. This roster is in shambles. He’s an energetic rebounder and a bit of a Swiss Army knife on the floor, but he just needs more development that he’s being rushed into right now. Also, he’s foul prone and bad from the line. | |
Michael Ajayi | Power Forward | Filip Borovicanin |
Senior | Class | Senior |
6’7″, 245 | Measurements | 6’9″, 227 |
15.7/11.2/3.2 | Game line | 9.8/7.8/4.4 |
45.2/26.3/64.1 | Shooting line | 41.9/31.8/86.1 |
| Butler has 3 of the 18 most efficient offensive players in the Big East, but instead they force feed possessions to this guy who is sporting an ORtg under 100 in league play. He’s an absolute monster on the glass at both ends and a willing and capable passer. He’s also posting an EFG% of 43.8% in league play and keeps shooting threes despite being awful at them. | |
Drayton Jones | Center | Jovan Milicevic |
Junior | Class | Sophomore |
6’11”, 250 | Measurements | 6’10”, 241 |
6.9/4.7/1.2 | Game line | 12/4.1/1.4 |
58.7/0/72.7 | Shooting line | 44.7/43.4/70.2 |
| Jones is almost 40 points of ORtg more efficient than Ajayi in Big East play. Obviously there are more components to being good than just a good ORtg, but you’d think maybe he’d get some more touches. He’s also a beast on the boards, and he leverages his skill set by never shooting threes or even that many mid-range twos. He just lives at the rim and converts his FTs, then heads back to play defense. Solid player. | |
The bench is more or less down to four healthy players. The first is sophomore wing Jamie Kaiser, though he might start if Evan Haywood can’t go. He averages 9.8/4.3/1 and is a solid shooter, though his numbers have dipped in conference play. At 6’6″, he’s also a good defender who stays out of foul trouble.Yohan Traore is a 6’11”, 250-pound bench big who averages 7.5/3/0.7 in 19 minutes per game off the pine. He’s a solid post scorer who gets on the offensive glass and never turns the ball over. He’s not much of a run protector, and he’s a below average defensive rebounder for a man his size.
Deep depth comes in the form of wings Yame Butler (4.2/1.3/1.5) and Jackson Keith (2.2/1.6/0.1). Neither of these guys gets many minutes even with the roster in a depleted state. Butler is a 6’5″ senior who can do some point forward stuff but fouls a lot and shoots too many threes for a guy making under 30% of them. Keith is a 6’5″ freshman who really flies to the defensive glass but also struggles with foul trouble and lacks offensive range.
Three Questions
– Can someone stop Ayaji? In the first matchup Butler’s star went for 22/12/4 and had moments where he looked like the best player on the floor. Tre Carroll took that game for Xavier, but the Musketeers need to find a way to keep Ayaji in check. Butler tends to be in games when he plays well and fade when he doesn’t.
– Who rebounds? Butler is, on paper, the better rebounding team. Xavier held Providence to 20% offensive rebounding, but allowed 48.8% to Seton Hall. That schizophrenia has been an issue for X all season. The last time out, Xavier dominated the glass on both ends, grabbing 39% of their own misses and holding Butler to a 25.7% rate. The team that wins this will have a good chance of winning the game.
– Can Xavier get any help from the bench bigs? Anthony Robinson has played 16 semi-efficient minutes over the last two games. Pape N’Diaye hasn’t appeared since St. John’s and hasn’t played double digit minutes since Seton Hall. X very much needs one of the two of them to be effective to keep the three starting bigs from wearing out late.
Three Keys
– Play inside: Xavier doesn’t excel at interior offense. They, however, are better at it than Butler is at interior defense by some margin. Back to the basket play may not be the answer, but Xavier needs to get the ball into the paint either by driving or the occasional post up for success. In the first meeting X shot 56.5% on two point attempts, one of their highest marks of the year.
– Get Tre some rest: End game and second half turnovers have plagued the Big East’s leading scorer. Someone has to find a way to assist with the scoring load so Tre isn’t dragging the team back into a game like he was on Tuesday. Getting him some actual bench time during the game would also help.
– Finish a game: Just get one over the line. Marquette wasn’t pretty, but it counted. Per KyMuskie on Twitter Xavier is 16 points away from being 19-7 and having three Q1 wins. That’s the margin this season. X just needs to get one over the line here, it doesn’t matter how.
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