WSU’s Tournament Run Begins Sooner Than Expected

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Washington State dropped its regular-season finale to Pepperdine, 88–79, on Saturday, falling to the No. 8 seed in the WCC Tournament. Looking at the standings, it frankly doesn’t even seem real. Two years ago, WSU was a top-20 team and tied for first place in the Pac-12 alongside a top-five Arizona squad. Now, the Cougs sit behind Pacific in the conference standings.

A week ago, it was conceivable that WSU could finish as the No. 4 seed in the conference tournament, but it seems the bubble has finally burst and the Cougs have rolled over. WSU dropped its final two regular-season games to the No. 10 and No. 12 seeds in the tournament, Pepperdine and LMU. Say what you will about the team, they have played hard throughout the season despite its record. Now, given their current predicament, WSU will have to win five straight games to make the Big Dance. Do they have a chance? That depends on which team shows up.

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Washington State will begin its climb a day earlier than it did last season, on March 6, against the winner of Pepperdine and Portland. WSU went 3–1 against those two teams in the regular season, and if it plays to its potential, this is a game the Cougs should, and need to, win.

This is where the path becomes interesting. If WSU advances, it would face the San Francisco Dons, a team the Cougs had beat but fell apart late.

WSU led 80–76 with 2:31 remaining in its game at San Francisco after controlling much of the second half. There’s little evidence to suggest things would go differently in Vegas, but the point is that this is an extremely winnable game. The same could be said for the following matchup, if WSU were to advance, against Oregon State. The Cougs throttled Oregon State in Spokane early in the new year and were doing the same in Corvallis before a second-half collapse, one that became all too familiar down the stretch.

Washington State led the Beavers by 17 points in the second half before completely falling off the rails. Is there reason to be wary of a repeat? Absolutely. But is it a winnable game? Yes. Especially since OSU just fired Wayne Tinkle.

It’s fairly conceivable that WSU could win its first three games at the WCC Tournament. But that only gets you to the semifinals, on Gonzaga’s side of the bracket. Nothing from either of WSU’s meetings with Gonzaga suggested the Cougs could pull off an upset of that magnitude. If you want to put on crimson-colored glasses and map out a path (something I am very capable of doing), it would look something like this: WSU enters on a three-game winning streak with nothing to lose, Ace Glass rediscovers his Maui Invitational form, and the Cougars shoot 60 percent from three against an unmotivated Gonzaga team. A guy can dream.

This is the only part of the draw that feels slightly unfavorable. The Cougs were competitive against Santa Clara—a game they easily could have won -and played long stretches of strong basketball against Saint Mary’s. Gonzaga has simply overpowered WSU in both meetings. Even in the first matchup, when Washington State briefly held a lead, it was fueled by three Simon Hildebrandt three-pointers, and the advantage vanished before halftime.

All of this analysis may be moot if the Cougs have already checked out. WSU appeared to gain momentum a few times during conference play, including a pair of three-game winning streaks, but it always unraveled. Had the Cougs not collapsed at Oregon State, they would likely be the No. 4 seed in this tournament. That doesn’t even account for other winnable WCC games they squandered against San Francisco, San Diego, LMU, and Santa Clara.

Until this recent road trip to the bottom of the conference standings, WSU had remained competitive (aside from the game at Gonzaga) including a valiant effort against Saint Mary’s on senior night. A tournament run will require far more than what was shown in those final games. Still, WSU is capable. Critics of this team may be surprised next season by some of the NIL dollar figures these players receive, whether from WSU or elsewhere.

While I’ve outlined the path and case for a semifinal run, the most likely outcome is that WSU falls to San Francisco in the third round, resulting in its first 20-loss season since 2016. I’ve defended David Riley often this season, and while he faces an uphill climb, 20 losses is difficult to justify, especially in this conference. The coaching staff and players have an opportunity to right many wrongs this week. Let’s see if they seize it.

WSU will face the winner of Pepperdine and Portland on Friday, March 6, on ESPN+, from the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

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