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The World Baseball Classic field has been whittled down to four teams, with two captivating semifinal matchups slated for Sunday and Monday at loanDepot Park in Miami.
One side of the bracket features two heavyweights in the Dominican Republic and Team USA, star-studded squads that charted very different paths to the penultimate round. D.R. steamrollered its five opponents thus far without much trouble, while the Americans have looked only on occasion like the powerhouse they are on paper.
In the other semifinal, we have a more surprising matchup between Italy and Venezuela. The Cinderella of this tournament, Italy is 5-0 after winning Pool B and beating Puerto Rico with another strong offensive showing in the quarterfinals. Venezuela, meanwhile, eliminated the defending WBC champion, Samurai Japan, in the best game of the tournament so far to advance to this point.
Let’s take a closer look at the four teams vying for the WBC title and the key factors that could determine who will play for the championship on Tuesday.
Paul Skenes (USA) vs. Luis Severino (D.R.)
Hitters on the Dominican roster are a combined 3-for-27 against Skenes in regular-season play, with Julio Rodriguez — who has been one of the least productive regulars in the D.R. lineup in this tournament — accounting for all three hits, and Padres teammates Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. having never faced the Pittsburgh ace. If those small samples don’t move you, perhaps a more relevant data point to monitor is Skenes’ pitch count. WBC rules dictate a pitch count of 65 in pool play and 80 in the quarterfinals, but for the semifinals and championship, the allowable total climbs to 95 (with pitchers allowed to finish an at-bat if they arrive at the threshold mid-plate appearance). On Monday, Skenes threw 60 pitches across four scoreless innings in USA’s 5-3 victory over Mexico. It’s safe to assume an increase in workload is in store, but it might not be reasonable to expect Skenes to max out as he continues to build up in advance of Opening Day with the Pirates. Manager Mark DeRosa and Andy Pettitte have both tossed out 75-80 pitches as a more realistic target for Skenes.
However it shakes out, every out Skenes records will be one fewer that DeRosa needs to worry about finding from his bullpen, though it’s worth noting that several reinforcements have joined the U.S. roster from the designated pitcher pool: Will Vest, Tyler Rogers, Tim Hill and Jeff Hoffman have replaced Tarik Skubal, Michael Wacha, Ryan Yarbrough and Clayton Kershaw. This newfound wealth of more traditional high-leverage relievers rather than swingman types is a huge luxury for DeRosa and could enable him to pull Skenes sooner rather than later if he runs into any semblance of trouble.
As for Severino, he allowed one run (a Didi Gregorius solo shot) across four frames (60 pitches, 43 strikes) against Team Netherlands in pool play before the Dominican lineup exploded for a 12-1 mercy-rule victory. The 32-year-old A’s right-hander is no stranger to big games, with 13 career MLB postseason starts on his résumé, but this opportunity to set the tone for his country against Team USA undoubtedly ranks as one of the most consequential outings of his career.
[Draft your Yahoo Fantasy Baseball team for the 2026 MLB Season]
USA: It wasn’t pretty — Pete Crow-Armstrong admitted as much after USA’s quarterfinal win over Canada — but the best roster ever assembled by USA Baseball and the favorite entering this tournament has indeed made it to the final four. Despite the lopsided final scores, USA had way more trouble against extreme underdogs Brazil and Great Britain than anyone would’ve expected. Its narrow win against Mexico proved crucial when the U.S. lost in stunning fashion to Italy, which then did Team USA a humongous favor by routing Mexico to finish pool play. Granted new life and a ticket to the quarterfinals with that Italy-Mexico result, USA handled business against Canada but didn’t dominate by any means. Aaron Judge’s double in the first inning was the team’s lone extra-base hit, and the Americans benefitted from Canadian miscues on both sides of the ball before sealing a 5-3 victory with some bullpen heroics from David Bednar and Mason Miller.
Dominican Republic: Save for a rocky start against Nicaragua and a tense ninth inning against Venezuela, Team D.R. has run roughshod over its opponents en route to a 5-0 record by a combined score of 51-10. The Dominican bats have combined to hit .312/.453/.637, a stupendous slash line with a few historic parallels including 1992 Barry Bonds, 1996 Gary Sheffield and 2018 Mike Trout. A perfect pitching staff is not required with an offense such as this, but the Dominican run-prevention efforts have also been stout, to the tune of a 1.98 ERA across 41 innings with 0.93 WHIP. This team is firing on all cylinders and having a damn good time along the way.
USA: By flushing the subpar performance in Houston and flipping the switch in Miami, finally delivering a comprehensive performance that showcases the all-world talent packed on this roster. It starts with Skenes, of course, armed with the stuff and confidence to tame the red-hot Dominican lineup. It’s not just that Skenes is the reigning NL Cy Young; it’s also that the D.R. lineup hasn’t faced a pitcher anywhere close to his level in this tournament and has barely seen any elite velocity outside of a few hard-throwing relievers on Team Venezuela. That sudden jump in the caliber of opposing arms — with the superb Skenes followed by a refreshed USA bullpen — spells enough trouble for the Dominican hitters to give USA the edge. The American sluggers knock Severino around and live up to the hype at long last.
Dominican Republic: By continuing the party. All the energy gathered from the D.R.’s first five victories (not to mention its raucous pre-tournament exhibitions on home soil) culminates in another display of baseballing excellence against its toughest opponent yet. The Dominicans rise to the challenge posed by Skenes, and their uber-talented hitters — Tatis, Juan Soto, Junior Caminero, Ketel Marte, take your pick –- find enough barrels against the high-level USA hurlers. Perhaps USA’s lineup continues to produce at an uneven pace, and the result is another hefty Dominican run total that USA can’t keep up with as the D.R. mashes its way into the championship game.
USA: By continuing to play nowhere near their potential and struggling against a team that is both wildly talented and scorching hot. In this scenario, Skenes’ pitch count climbs quickly during the first few frames, forcing DeRosa to begin the bullpen carousel earlier than scheduled. One of the newly added relievers — thrown right from spring training into the high-intensity chaos of the WBC — struggles when called upon, and that proves costly in the event that Bednar and/or Miller are unavailable after their quarterfinal efforts. The lineup continues to underperform, and the Americans exit the tournament as a spectacular what-if rather than an actualized juggernaut.
Dominican Republic: By falling behind early. Severino, a veteran arm whom every hitter on the USA roster except Roman Anthony has faced multiple times in the majors, suffers from the familiarity factor and yields some hard contact in the early frames, putting Team D.R. in an unfamiliar hole that becomes difficult to manage. Skenes stifles the Dominican offense in a manner few can, and without much traffic on the bases, Team D.R. can’t find the big homer in the big spot like they have over and over in the tournament to this point. The bullpen allows a few too many free passes, which lead to insurance runs for Team USA that not even the D.R. offense can overcome.
USA: Bryce Harper. Even with Skenes on the mound, if Team USA is going to keep up with the relentless Dominican offense, it’ll likely need more than just one or two big swings. That puts a sizable spotlight on Harper, who is 3-for-20 in this tournament, with seven strikeouts and several lackluster at-bats in high-leverage situations. If Harper remains near the top of the lineup, sandwiched between Bobby Witt Jr. and Aaron Judge, it’ll be critical for his plate appearances to be productive. That’s all the more true when factoring in Harper’s success against Severino in his career; he has three homers against the right-hander, all hit in 2024 (two in the regular season, one in October).
Dominican Republic: The bullpen. You could pick any combination of superstar hitters in the Dominican lineup, and they would rightfully qualify as X-factors because any of them could take over the game. But the relievers were the sneaky subplot of this team’s pool play success, a unit that had a 0.00 ERA until the very last frame of the group stage, when Abner Uribe completely lost the zone against Venezuela and surrendered a pair of runs. It’s also a group that should be quite fresh after only one reliever — Albert Abreu, the de facto longman — appeared in D.R.’s quarterfinal rout of Korea. That means Albert Pujols should have a deep group of arms available, but deploying them in an effective sequence is another story, especially if Severino falters early.
Team D.R. does just enough against Skenes to seize momentum in the early going and delivers the big blow in the later frames against the USA bullpen. The Dominican Republic moves on to the championship, with a shot at completing its second undefeated run through the World Baseball Classic, following its 8-0 showing in 2013. Team USA goes home early after an undeniably underwhelming performance in the WBC.
Keider Montero (Venezuela) vs. Michael Lorenzen (Italy)
Lorenzen, the new Colorado Rockie who is gearing up for his 12th major-league season, provided 4 ⅔ scoreless innings as the starting pitcher in Italy’s upset over Team USA, lending optimism that the 34-year-old is more than capable of stepping up against a stacked lineup in a tournament setting. Venezuela represents another tough task for Lorenzen, this time with an increased pitch count and an avalanche of confidence earned in pool play. His outing should not be taken lightly, no matter what his ERA was last season (4.64).
After lefty Emmanuel De Jesus — who started the second game of pool play against Israel and thus was next up in the Venezuela rotation — delivered 2 ⅓ scoreless innings against Japan in the quarterfinal, it wasn’t immediately clear who would start the semifinal for Venezuela. But manager Omar Lopez announced Keider Montero as the starter for Monday against Italy, a sensible choice after he piggybacked with Yoendrys Gomez to provide five scoreless frames against Nicaragua in the third game of pool play. Gomez, meanwhile, is expected to be replaced on the roster, so Montero will likely be asked to cover more on his own this time around.
Italy: Team Italy cruised through the group stage of the tournament undefeated, most notably including the 8-6 upset over Team USA that shook up pool play. The Italians carried that momentum into the quarterfinals against Puerto Rico, knocking starter Seth Lugo out in the first inning and jumping to an 8-2 lead through four frames before skirting some late drama to escape with an 8-6 victory and a spot in the semis.
Venezuela: Venezuela sailed through its first three games of pool play as expected before coming up short against the rival Dominican Republic in the Pool D finale, saddling the team with pool runner-up status that meant a matchup with defending champion Japan in the quarterfinals. But rather than bowing out in the quarters as they did three years ago vs. Team USA, Venezuela rose to the occasion and emerged victorious from a classic heavyweight fight on Saturday at loanDepot Park, claiming an emotional 8-5 win over Samurai Japan to advance to the semis and keep alive its dreams of raising its first WBC trophy.
Italy: By continuing to rake. Team Italy, with a lineup headlined by proven slugger Vinnie Pasquantino but filled mostly with players still looking to make their mark in the majors, has hit .287/.401/.581, amounting to a .982 OPS that ranks second in the tournament, behind only Team D.R.’s ludicrous 1.080 mark. Italy has gotten homers from four prospects who have yet to reach the majors (Dante Nori, Andrew Fischer, J.J. D’Orazio, Sam Antonacci), and now team captain Pasquantino is heating up after going hitless the first three games. The bats need to stay hot if Italy is to continue its Cinderella run and topple another traditional baseball power in Venezuela, which will be riding into the semis as confident as ever after eliminating the defending champs.
Venezuela: By building on their performance vs. Japan. The offense continues to shine, with Ronald Acuña Jr. and his cousin, budding star Maikel Garcia, providing the necessary jolts atop the lineup to vault Venezuela to another high-scoring victory. The catching trio (two current backstops plus one former) of Salvador Perez and the Contreras brothers (William and Willson) wakes up at the plate, flushing their combined 6-for-41 to start the tournament and driving in a few runs in support of the terrific top of the order. Montero keeps the game close for long enough to turn it over to a bullpen that has quietly shined in this tournament, and Venezuela zooms to its first WBC finals appearance.
Italy: Lorenzen returns to his more mediocre form, and the pitching behind him — which has been shaky outside of the starts from Lorenzen and Aaron Nola, plus lockdown closer Greg Weissert at the backend — crumbles, allowing Venezuela’s high-powered offense to do too much damage. Unfamiliar with playing from behind in this tournament, Italy’s lack of experience in the position-player group shows through when the scoreboard isn’t in its favor, leading to a less-productive showing from the lineup. Zero espresso shots are consumed, and the magic runs out on a memorable WBC run for Team Italy.
Venezuela: Italy jumps on Montero early, putting Venezuela in a hole it can’t quite dig its way out of. After playing as the underdog in the prior two contests, Venezuela feels the pressure of falling behind quickly as the favorite and starts to press at the plate, enabling Italy’s less-proven pitchers to navigate the middle innings unscathed. The Venezuela bullpen, heavily used throughout the tournament, shows some wear and tear at inopportune intervals, and Italy tacks on runs late to put the game out of reach and pull off another upset.
Italy: Jakob Marsee. Despite batting first, second or third in all five of Italy’s games thus far, Marsee has just two runs scored, two RBI and one extra-base hit. That’s a tiny sample, and it seems ridiculous to hold Marsee to such a high standard, considering he’s just 55 games into his major-league career, but what he showed with Miami as a rookie (133 wRC+) suggested that he could be one of Italy’s most dangerous bats in this tournament. So far, that hasn’t been the case. The future is still quite bright for the 24-year-old outfielder, but his making a more emphatic mark for Team Italy in the semis (or beyond) would be a great way to set the tone for his sophomore MLB season.
Venezuela: Manager Omar Lopez. Lopez has leaned heavily on a small group of relievers to get to this point, with Jose Butto, Andres Machado and Angel Zerpa each appearing in four of Venezuela’s five games and Eduardo Bazardo and Daniel Palencia making three appearances apiece. Which of these key relievers is available on Monday — and whether Lopez refrains from using certain ones, knowing the championship game is the following day — is an enormous variable to keep an eye on. Lopez is also likely managing usage restrictions from major-league teams, adding another layer to what promises to be a daunting managerial assignment.
Italy finally loses a baseball game. It’s not something we’ve seen yet in this WBC, but Venezuela has the heavy hitters to make it happen and put an end to one of the most remarkable runs in World Baseball Classic history. Italy is feisty enough to hang around and make it competitive, but the momentum gathered from the quarterfinal triumph over Japan should be enough to vault Venezuela past Italy and into Tuesday’s championship game.
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One side of the bracket features two heavyweights in the Dominican Republic and Team USA, star-studded squads that charted very different paths to the penultimate round. D.R. steamrollered its five opponents thus far without much trouble, while the Americans have looked only on occasion like the powerhouse they are on paper.
In the other semifinal, we have a more surprising matchup between Italy and Venezuela. The Cinderella of this tournament, Italy is 5-0 after winning Pool B and beating Puerto Rico with another strong offensive showing in the quarterfinals. Venezuela, meanwhile, eliminated the defending WBC champion, Samurai Japan, in the best game of the tournament so far to advance to this point.
Let’s take a closer look at the four teams vying for the WBC title and the key factors that could determine who will play for the championship on Tuesday.
Team USA vs. Dominican Republic
Projected starters
Paul Skenes (USA) vs. Luis Severino (D.R.)
Hitters on the Dominican roster are a combined 3-for-27 against Skenes in regular-season play, with Julio Rodriguez — who has been one of the least productive regulars in the D.R. lineup in this tournament — accounting for all three hits, and Padres teammates Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. having never faced the Pittsburgh ace. If those small samples don’t move you, perhaps a more relevant data point to monitor is Skenes’ pitch count. WBC rules dictate a pitch count of 65 in pool play and 80 in the quarterfinals, but for the semifinals and championship, the allowable total climbs to 95 (with pitchers allowed to finish an at-bat if they arrive at the threshold mid-plate appearance). On Monday, Skenes threw 60 pitches across four scoreless innings in USA’s 5-3 victory over Mexico. It’s safe to assume an increase in workload is in store, but it might not be reasonable to expect Skenes to max out as he continues to build up in advance of Opening Day with the Pirates. Manager Mark DeRosa and Andy Pettitte have both tossed out 75-80 pitches as a more realistic target for Skenes.
However it shakes out, every out Skenes records will be one fewer that DeRosa needs to worry about finding from his bullpen, though it’s worth noting that several reinforcements have joined the U.S. roster from the designated pitcher pool: Will Vest, Tyler Rogers, Tim Hill and Jeff Hoffman have replaced Tarik Skubal, Michael Wacha, Ryan Yarbrough and Clayton Kershaw. This newfound wealth of more traditional high-leverage relievers rather than swingman types is a huge luxury for DeRosa and could enable him to pull Skenes sooner rather than later if he runs into any semblance of trouble.
As for Severino, he allowed one run (a Didi Gregorius solo shot) across four frames (60 pitches, 43 strikes) against Team Netherlands in pool play before the Dominican lineup exploded for a 12-1 mercy-rule victory. The 32-year-old A’s right-hander is no stranger to big games, with 13 career MLB postseason starts on his résumé, but this opportunity to set the tone for his country against Team USA undoubtedly ranks as one of the most consequential outings of his career.
[Draft your Yahoo Fantasy Baseball team for the 2026 MLB Season]
How they got here
USA: It wasn’t pretty — Pete Crow-Armstrong admitted as much after USA’s quarterfinal win over Canada — but the best roster ever assembled by USA Baseball and the favorite entering this tournament has indeed made it to the final four. Despite the lopsided final scores, USA had way more trouble against extreme underdogs Brazil and Great Britain than anyone would’ve expected. Its narrow win against Mexico proved crucial when the U.S. lost in stunning fashion to Italy, which then did Team USA a humongous favor by routing Mexico to finish pool play. Granted new life and a ticket to the quarterfinals with that Italy-Mexico result, USA handled business against Canada but didn’t dominate by any means. Aaron Judge’s double in the first inning was the team’s lone extra-base hit, and the Americans benefitted from Canadian miscues on both sides of the ball before sealing a 5-3 victory with some bullpen heroics from David Bednar and Mason Miller.
Dominican Republic: Save for a rocky start against Nicaragua and a tense ninth inning against Venezuela, Team D.R. has run roughshod over its opponents en route to a 5-0 record by a combined score of 51-10. The Dominican bats have combined to hit .312/.453/.637, a stupendous slash line with a few historic parallels including 1992 Barry Bonds, 1996 Gary Sheffield and 2018 Mike Trout. A perfect pitching staff is not required with an offense such as this, but the Dominican run-prevention efforts have also been stout, to the tune of a 1.98 ERA across 41 innings with 0.93 WHIP. This team is firing on all cylinders and having a damn good time along the way.
How they win
USA: By flushing the subpar performance in Houston and flipping the switch in Miami, finally delivering a comprehensive performance that showcases the all-world talent packed on this roster. It starts with Skenes, of course, armed with the stuff and confidence to tame the red-hot Dominican lineup. It’s not just that Skenes is the reigning NL Cy Young; it’s also that the D.R. lineup hasn’t faced a pitcher anywhere close to his level in this tournament and has barely seen any elite velocity outside of a few hard-throwing relievers on Team Venezuela. That sudden jump in the caliber of opposing arms — with the superb Skenes followed by a refreshed USA bullpen — spells enough trouble for the Dominican hitters to give USA the edge. The American sluggers knock Severino around and live up to the hype at long last.
Dominican Republic: By continuing the party. All the energy gathered from the D.R.’s first five victories (not to mention its raucous pre-tournament exhibitions on home soil) culminates in another display of baseballing excellence against its toughest opponent yet. The Dominicans rise to the challenge posed by Skenes, and their uber-talented hitters — Tatis, Juan Soto, Junior Caminero, Ketel Marte, take your pick –- find enough barrels against the high-level USA hurlers. Perhaps USA’s lineup continues to produce at an uneven pace, and the result is another hefty Dominican run total that USA can’t keep up with as the D.R. mashes its way into the championship game.
How they lose
USA: By continuing to play nowhere near their potential and struggling against a team that is both wildly talented and scorching hot. In this scenario, Skenes’ pitch count climbs quickly during the first few frames, forcing DeRosa to begin the bullpen carousel earlier than scheduled. One of the newly added relievers — thrown right from spring training into the high-intensity chaos of the WBC — struggles when called upon, and that proves costly in the event that Bednar and/or Miller are unavailable after their quarterfinal efforts. The lineup continues to underperform, and the Americans exit the tournament as a spectacular what-if rather than an actualized juggernaut.
Dominican Republic: By falling behind early. Severino, a veteran arm whom every hitter on the USA roster except Roman Anthony has faced multiple times in the majors, suffers from the familiarity factor and yields some hard contact in the early frames, putting Team D.R. in an unfamiliar hole that becomes difficult to manage. Skenes stifles the Dominican offense in a manner few can, and without much traffic on the bases, Team D.R. can’t find the big homer in the big spot like they have over and over in the tournament to this point. The bullpen allows a few too many free passes, which lead to insurance runs for Team USA that not even the D.R. offense can overcome.
X-factors
USA: Bryce Harper. Even with Skenes on the mound, if Team USA is going to keep up with the relentless Dominican offense, it’ll likely need more than just one or two big swings. That puts a sizable spotlight on Harper, who is 3-for-20 in this tournament, with seven strikeouts and several lackluster at-bats in high-leverage situations. If Harper remains near the top of the lineup, sandwiched between Bobby Witt Jr. and Aaron Judge, it’ll be critical for his plate appearances to be productive. That’s all the more true when factoring in Harper’s success against Severino in his career; he has three homers against the right-hander, all hit in 2024 (two in the regular season, one in October).
Dominican Republic: The bullpen. You could pick any combination of superstar hitters in the Dominican lineup, and they would rightfully qualify as X-factors because any of them could take over the game. But the relievers were the sneaky subplot of this team’s pool play success, a unit that had a 0.00 ERA until the very last frame of the group stage, when Abner Uribe completely lost the zone against Venezuela and surrendered a pair of runs. It’s also a group that should be quite fresh after only one reliever — Albert Abreu, the de facto longman — appeared in D.R.’s quarterfinal rout of Korea. That means Albert Pujols should have a deep group of arms available, but deploying them in an effective sequence is another story, especially if Severino falters early.
Prediction
Team D.R. does just enough against Skenes to seize momentum in the early going and delivers the big blow in the later frames against the USA bullpen. The Dominican Republic moves on to the championship, with a shot at completing its second undefeated run through the World Baseball Classic, following its 8-0 showing in 2013. Team USA goes home early after an undeniably underwhelming performance in the WBC.
Venezuela vs. Italy
Projected starters
Keider Montero (Venezuela) vs. Michael Lorenzen (Italy)
Lorenzen, the new Colorado Rockie who is gearing up for his 12th major-league season, provided 4 ⅔ scoreless innings as the starting pitcher in Italy’s upset over Team USA, lending optimism that the 34-year-old is more than capable of stepping up against a stacked lineup in a tournament setting. Venezuela represents another tough task for Lorenzen, this time with an increased pitch count and an avalanche of confidence earned in pool play. His outing should not be taken lightly, no matter what his ERA was last season (4.64).
After lefty Emmanuel De Jesus — who started the second game of pool play against Israel and thus was next up in the Venezuela rotation — delivered 2 ⅓ scoreless innings against Japan in the quarterfinal, it wasn’t immediately clear who would start the semifinal for Venezuela. But manager Omar Lopez announced Keider Montero as the starter for Monday against Italy, a sensible choice after he piggybacked with Yoendrys Gomez to provide five scoreless frames against Nicaragua in the third game of pool play. Gomez, meanwhile, is expected to be replaced on the roster, so Montero will likely be asked to cover more on his own this time around.
How they got here
Italy: Team Italy cruised through the group stage of the tournament undefeated, most notably including the 8-6 upset over Team USA that shook up pool play. The Italians carried that momentum into the quarterfinals against Puerto Rico, knocking starter Seth Lugo out in the first inning and jumping to an 8-2 lead through four frames before skirting some late drama to escape with an 8-6 victory and a spot in the semis.
Venezuela: Venezuela sailed through its first three games of pool play as expected before coming up short against the rival Dominican Republic in the Pool D finale, saddling the team with pool runner-up status that meant a matchup with defending champion Japan in the quarterfinals. But rather than bowing out in the quarters as they did three years ago vs. Team USA, Venezuela rose to the occasion and emerged victorious from a classic heavyweight fight on Saturday at loanDepot Park, claiming an emotional 8-5 win over Samurai Japan to advance to the semis and keep alive its dreams of raising its first WBC trophy.
How they win
Italy: By continuing to rake. Team Italy, with a lineup headlined by proven slugger Vinnie Pasquantino but filled mostly with players still looking to make their mark in the majors, has hit .287/.401/.581, amounting to a .982 OPS that ranks second in the tournament, behind only Team D.R.’s ludicrous 1.080 mark. Italy has gotten homers from four prospects who have yet to reach the majors (Dante Nori, Andrew Fischer, J.J. D’Orazio, Sam Antonacci), and now team captain Pasquantino is heating up after going hitless the first three games. The bats need to stay hot if Italy is to continue its Cinderella run and topple another traditional baseball power in Venezuela, which will be riding into the semis as confident as ever after eliminating the defending champs.
Venezuela: By building on their performance vs. Japan. The offense continues to shine, with Ronald Acuña Jr. and his cousin, budding star Maikel Garcia, providing the necessary jolts atop the lineup to vault Venezuela to another high-scoring victory. The catching trio (two current backstops plus one former) of Salvador Perez and the Contreras brothers (William and Willson) wakes up at the plate, flushing their combined 6-for-41 to start the tournament and driving in a few runs in support of the terrific top of the order. Montero keeps the game close for long enough to turn it over to a bullpen that has quietly shined in this tournament, and Venezuela zooms to its first WBC finals appearance.
How they lose
Italy: Lorenzen returns to his more mediocre form, and the pitching behind him — which has been shaky outside of the starts from Lorenzen and Aaron Nola, plus lockdown closer Greg Weissert at the backend — crumbles, allowing Venezuela’s high-powered offense to do too much damage. Unfamiliar with playing from behind in this tournament, Italy’s lack of experience in the position-player group shows through when the scoreboard isn’t in its favor, leading to a less-productive showing from the lineup. Zero espresso shots are consumed, and the magic runs out on a memorable WBC run for Team Italy.
Venezuela: Italy jumps on Montero early, putting Venezuela in a hole it can’t quite dig its way out of. After playing as the underdog in the prior two contests, Venezuela feels the pressure of falling behind quickly as the favorite and starts to press at the plate, enabling Italy’s less-proven pitchers to navigate the middle innings unscathed. The Venezuela bullpen, heavily used throughout the tournament, shows some wear and tear at inopportune intervals, and Italy tacks on runs late to put the game out of reach and pull off another upset.
X-factors
Italy: Jakob Marsee. Despite batting first, second or third in all five of Italy’s games thus far, Marsee has just two runs scored, two RBI and one extra-base hit. That’s a tiny sample, and it seems ridiculous to hold Marsee to such a high standard, considering he’s just 55 games into his major-league career, but what he showed with Miami as a rookie (133 wRC+) suggested that he could be one of Italy’s most dangerous bats in this tournament. So far, that hasn’t been the case. The future is still quite bright for the 24-year-old outfielder, but his making a more emphatic mark for Team Italy in the semis (or beyond) would be a great way to set the tone for his sophomore MLB season.
Venezuela: Manager Omar Lopez. Lopez has leaned heavily on a small group of relievers to get to this point, with Jose Butto, Andres Machado and Angel Zerpa each appearing in four of Venezuela’s five games and Eduardo Bazardo and Daniel Palencia making three appearances apiece. Which of these key relievers is available on Monday — and whether Lopez refrains from using certain ones, knowing the championship game is the following day — is an enormous variable to keep an eye on. Lopez is also likely managing usage restrictions from major-league teams, adding another layer to what promises to be a daunting managerial assignment.
Prediction
Italy finally loses a baseball game. It’s not something we’ve seen yet in this WBC, but Venezuela has the heavy hitters to make it happen and put an end to one of the most remarkable runs in World Baseball Classic history. Italy is feisty enough to hang around and make it competitive, but the momentum gathered from the quarterfinal triumph over Japan should be enough to vault Venezuela past Italy and into Tuesday’s championship game.
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