Women’s NCAA Tournament First Four and first-round best bets: 7 games with value

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March Madness is one of the most popular sporting events of the year and it’s not just the men’s tournament that gets all the publicity in 2025. The women’s tournament has its turn in the spotlight as well. Of course, with the soaring popularity of the event comes more betting options at your favorite sportsbook.

There is a futures market for the women’s tournament and I’ve already used my college basketball projection model to find value there. So let’s turn our attention to the actual games with the First Four getting underway tonight. Similarly to my men’s best bets article, just because there is action does not mean you need to spray the board. Discipline is key in sports betting and that means taking advantage of games that have value rather than flipping a coin.

If you’ve followed any of my work in the past, you’ll have read me saying to please shop around for the best price. This will add up over time and is paramount to having success when betting on sports.

Iowa State -4.5 (-115) vs. Princeton​

A lot of Princeton’s offensive success comes from offensive rebounding and I’m not sure the Tigers find that type of success against the Cyclones considering they’re one of the best rebounding teams in the country. And without those extra possessions, I’m curious as to whether Princeton can get enough stops on defense offset that deficiency. Princeton might be able to shoot themselves to keep them in it, but I’m betting on Iowa State’s offense being too much for Princeton to keep up in this one.

Worst price to bet: Iowa State -6 (-110)

Grand Canyon at Baylor under 140.5 (-110)​

My projection for this game is in the mid-130s and, while Grand Canyon can shoot it and Baylor plays at a pretty fast pace, I can’t pass up this much value. I am curious as to whether Grand Canyon can keep up the offensive output they have all year against good competition. Now, they haven’t played anyone to the level of Baylor this year, but they’ve played three quality teams this year and the total points in those games were 104, 124 and 135. That’s some subjective reasoning to back up my model for sure, but considering the difference in talent here, I think it has signal for this under.

Worst price to bet: Under 138.5 (-110)

Montana State at Ohio State under 138.5 (-110)​

Montana State’s defense relies on turnovers which will be hard to come by as Ohio State rarely turns the ball over. Similarly to the Grand Canyon/Baylor breakdown above, I’m concerned if Montana State can find ways to score against quality competition. Again, small sample size, but the Bobcats played two quality opponents this year and the totals of those games were 125 and 107. Their offense hasn’t shown up against quality competition this year and I’d be surprised if it does in Columbus as well. My only worry here is that Ohio State plays at a very fast pace.

Worst price to bet: Under 136.5 (-110)

Richmond -1.5 (-110) vs. Georgia Tech​

Richmond profiles as one of my favorite teams in the tournament — please don’t overreact to this and bet their futures. The Spiders are an amazing shooting team and play at a slow pace. They shoot 38 percent from the 3-point line and take them at a top-10 rate nationally. They won’t necessarily shoot a ton because they play so slow, but they will fire them up and make them at a high rate. If you’re worried about how they’ve fared against good competition this season, they beat Oklahoma State on a neutral court, and lost to Texas (by 11) and Alabama (by seven).

Worst price to bet: Richmond -1.5 (-110)

Utah moneyline (+115) vs. Indiana​

Our first official wrong team favored of the tournament. At the very least this should be a coin flip, but my projections have Utah as the better team in this one. Part of that is I think the Utes’ defense is undervalued considering teams have shot so well from deep against them this year. My model will chalk some of that up to variance and I would assume they revert to the mean here. I do have some concern, though, because Indiana can shoot it very well. I’m going to bet on variance going the Utes’ way here and get an outright victory.

Worst price to bet: Utah ML (+100)

Murray State vs. Iowa under 164.5 (-110)​

I don’t like anything about this play. Murray State plays incredibly fast. They shoot a lot of 3-pointers and shoot them at a pretty good percentage — and Iowa will let you shoot a ton of 3s as well. They also don’t play any defense and are going up against an Iowa team that isn’t too shabby on offense. Despite all that, my model has this game pegged for the upper-150s. I can’t pass up that much of an edge. My only saving grace in this game is that Murray State failed to crack even 0.87 points per possession against LSU and Alabama. If they fail to get to that number against Iowa, it’s going to be very hard to get into the mid-160s.

Worst price to bet: Under 162.5 (-110)

Norfolk State at Maryland over 145.5 (-110)​

Maryland plays at a fast pace, which should help against a Norfolk State team that doesn’t have the best offense. What’s giving me some hope for Norfolk State here is that its point guard, Diamond Johnson, has experience at Rutgers and NC State. She produced at both stops so she should be able to give a little bit of a spark on offense. Outside of that, this should be a pretty dominant performance for Maryland’s offense. If we can get anything from the underdog, we should be looking good.

Worst price to bet: Over 146.5 (-110)

This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

Utah Utes, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Maryland Terrapins, Ohio State Buckeyes, Baylor Bears, Iowa Hawkeyes, Iowa State Cyclones, Women's College Basketball, Sports Betting, Women's NCAA Tournament

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