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Shane Steichen did not reinvent the wheel when he made that statement last year. Any team will tell you that they need to run the ball to win. That could mean a few things. It could mean that you want to be able to run the ball, so that you can slow the rush to pass effectively. It could also mean that you must run the ball to be able to keep your own defense fresher, by winning or at least splitting time of possession. Another explanation is that you want to be able to run the ball to salt away games that you have controlled or even just be able hold on to a slim lead.
While we were humming along at 7 – 1 last season, our “Passing to score and running to win”, most represented the last option. We were effectively passing the ball in the 1st half and equally effectively running the ball in the 2nd half. You can look at Jonathan Taylor’s usage and stats to support the strategy.
Taylor was solid in the first half of games. He had 167 attempts for 676 yards at 4.0 per carry. He was also a very effective part of the passing game in the first halves of games, as he had 32 targets, 25 catches and averaged 9.7 per catch. In his second halves, he had fewer attempts at 148, but had more yards at 872, good for 5.9 yards per carry. I think his attempts were down in the second half, because we had big leads and he sat some 4th quarters. He was not nearly as effective in the passing game as he averaged just 6.5 yards per catch on 21 2nd half receptions.
His numbers did take a severe hit, once we had our 2nd string QBs running the show. He was held to just 3.1 yards per carry over the last five games of the season. Other relevant numbers might be that he averaged 6.4 YPC in the 8 wins, along with nearly 10 YPR, while compiling only 3.4 YPC and 6.5 YPR in our losing efforts. Opponents obviously made him their focus, once we showed that we could not beat them with our passing game. To me, this shows that he benefitted from the strategy to throw the ball to set up the run.
Just a quick look at how the offense looked under center compared to out of the shotgun, and our success using play action and the RPO plays. Taylor was in the backfield when we were under center for 157 rushing attempts, good for 5.4 YPC. He was extremely effective as a receiver while under center as well, producing 10.8 YPR. Daniel Jones, while under center, was a bit worse in his 85 snaps. He had a lower completion percentage, at 64.7 (68.9 in the shotgun), but was very effective in short yardage runs, getting 5 TD and 13 1st downs in 26 rushing attempts.
As far as the RPO results, I was pretty surprised at how infrequently we ran that option. According to Pro Football Reference, JT only had 20 rushing attempts for 66 yards on the season. DJ was 39 of 52 while running the RPO and ran 5 times for 27 yards and 3 1st downs. It makes you wonder just how much we ever intended to use that offense? Richardson was expected to thrive in an offense that featured the RPO, but it did not appear to be a focal point last year, even with DJ’s reputation as a running QB.
So, how will Shane will attack this coming year? I, for one, hope that he does not expect to use the same basic strategy next year. I think many thought we “snuck up” on the league last year, but that will not happen again. I understand that the offensive roster will largely still be intact, but Shane needs to prove that he can adjust to the adjustments that were made against us after the 7 – 1 start. I won’t claim to know how that will look, but we should hope to get back to looking like we were a step ahead, rather than a step behind.
My suggestion, provided that DJ is sound enough to do it, is to run more plays from under center. If you have read much of what I have written in the past, that suggestion should not come as a surprise. Only three teams ran more plays from under center than the shotgun last year. They were the Rams at 65%, the Seahawks at 57% and the Lions at 53%. The Colts were in the bottom half at 29%.
This seems like a simple implementation, which could help the Colts maintain their strategy of running to win. I mean, they have the under center plays, just call them more frequently. Maybe we would increase the RPO usage, should AR or Leonard need to play until DJ is completely healthy. I couldn’t imagine seeing Jones use the RPO more often than last year, coming off an achilles injury.
How would you adjust to the adjustments that the league made against us last year? What hopes do you have for the Colts on the offensive side of the ball?
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