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ATLANTA, GA - MAY 17: Drake Baldwin #30 of the Atlanta Braves makes contact with the baseball during the MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and the Atlanta Braves on May 17, 2026 at TRUIST Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
I was writing up the biweekly update last night, and Baldwin’s absence in the hitter tables and charts was a glaring omission. The other times, I’d write something like, “Oh yeah, Drake Baldwin is otherworldly, again.” But for the first half of June, no Drake Baldwin.
At the moment, Baldwin has an insane .403 wOBA / .418 xwOBA in 216 PAs. He played as the DH enough to drop his overall defensive value into the marginally-negative, but still managed 2.1 fWAR in those 216 PAs, which is an fWAR/600 pace of close to 6. Since he’ll be playing catcher more (a lot more) going forward, he could easily push that threshold… if he keeps hitting.
But, will he? A wRC+ above 150 is a tall order. He was already a revelation with a 125 wRC+ last year, and didn’t just hit the ground running in 2026, but rather pulverized the terrain and all opposing pitching on it. Here’s a crazy stat: his lowest wRC+ in any calendar week was 101, while he had three weeks above 200.
All that said, he did miss some time with an oblique injury, and had just one rehab start due to a rainout (in which, of course, he homered).
So, is he going to return and do the same crazy stuff he was doing before the injury? Or, is there going to be an adjustment period and/or regression to something perhaps resembling 2025 rather than 2026?
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