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There’s no better way to enjoy a prime time matchup than with a same-game parlay. The problem is that most SGPs are longshots designed to drain your bankroll. Those flashy +1,000,000 tickets look fun, but they almost never cash — and the sportsbooks know it.
At FTN, we take a different approach. Using our Same-Game Parlay Tool, powered by 10,000 simulations for every matchup, we identify spots where the odds are mispriced. That means you’re not just throwing darts, you’re building parlays with real mathematical edges, even when the payouts are big.
Sunday night gives us a matchup that should stay competitive. The Patriots have been one of the league’s biggest surprises, jumping from 4-13 last season to 14-3 this year. But despite that record, they’ve beaten only one team with a winning record, which raises questions about how dominant they really are.
New England deserves to be favored, but the spread is tight for a reason. If this game stays close, we should see both quarterbacks throwing deep into the fourth quarter, which is exactly what we want for a passing-driven SGP.
This four-leg parlay is built around the primary offensive engines on both sides.
Even after losing multiple offensive line starters this season, Herbert still finished ninth in the NFL in passing yards. New England’s raw defensive numbers look strong, but they’ve faced one of the league’s softest schedules and rank just 25th in pass-defense DVOA, which adjusts for opponent quality.
This isn’t asking Herbert to be spectacular. It’s simply asking him to be himself. In a competitive game script, 200 yards is a very reasonable bar.
We don’t yet know who will win MVP, but Drake Maye is deservingly at the center of the conversation. He finished fourth in the league with 4,394 passing yards despite ranking only 12th in attempts, a sign of elite efficiency. He has cleared 200 yards in all but two games this season. With New England unlikely to run away from this matchup, Maye should have plenty of dropbacks to comfortably get past this number.
Diggs has been one of the best free-agent signings of the season. Health was the big question mark entering the year, but he has quickly become Maye’s go-to target in high-leverage situations. When the Patriots need a conversion or a big play, the ball usually finds Diggs. In a game projected to be tight, his target share gives him a strong path to clearing five catches.
McConkey’s numbers are down from his impressive rookie season, but this matchup sets up perfectly for him. New England’s perimeter corners are strong, but they are far more vulnerable in the slot, where McConkey runs 63.8% of his routes.
That alignment puts him in the best position to see consistent, efficient targets, making four receptions a very attainable number.
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At FTN, we take a different approach. Using our Same-Game Parlay Tool, powered by 10,000 simulations for every matchup, we identify spots where the odds are mispriced. That means you’re not just throwing darts, you’re building parlays with real mathematical edges, even when the payouts are big.
Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots
Same-Game Parlay (+328)
Sunday night gives us a matchup that should stay competitive. The Patriots have been one of the league’s biggest surprises, jumping from 4-13 last season to 14-3 this year. But despite that record, they’ve beaten only one team with a winning record, which raises questions about how dominant they really are.
New England deserves to be favored, but the spread is tight for a reason. If this game stays close, we should see both quarterbacks throwing deep into the fourth quarter, which is exactly what we want for a passing-driven SGP.
This four-leg parlay is built around the primary offensive engines on both sides.
Leg 1: Justin Herbert 200+ Passing Yards
Even after losing multiple offensive line starters this season, Herbert still finished ninth in the NFL in passing yards. New England’s raw defensive numbers look strong, but they’ve faced one of the league’s softest schedules and rank just 25th in pass-defense DVOA, which adjusts for opponent quality.
This isn’t asking Herbert to be spectacular. It’s simply asking him to be himself. In a competitive game script, 200 yards is a very reasonable bar.
Leg 2: Drake Maye 200+ Passing Yards
We don’t yet know who will win MVP, but Drake Maye is deservingly at the center of the conversation. He finished fourth in the league with 4,394 passing yards despite ranking only 12th in attempts, a sign of elite efficiency. He has cleared 200 yards in all but two games this season. With New England unlikely to run away from this matchup, Maye should have plenty of dropbacks to comfortably get past this number.
Leg 3: Stefon Diggs 5+ Receptions
Diggs has been one of the best free-agent signings of the season. Health was the big question mark entering the year, but he has quickly become Maye’s go-to target in high-leverage situations. When the Patriots need a conversion or a big play, the ball usually finds Diggs. In a game projected to be tight, his target share gives him a strong path to clearing five catches.
Leg 4: Ladd McKonkey 4+ Receptions
McConkey’s numbers are down from his impressive rookie season, but this matchup sets up perfectly for him. New England’s perimeter corners are strong, but they are far more vulnerable in the slot, where McConkey runs 63.8% of his routes.
That alignment puts him in the best position to see consistent, efficient targets, making four receptions a very attainable number.
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