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If it feels like every time New York Yankees outfielder Trent Grisham hits a ball into the air, it leaves the park, well, you’re not wrong. It’s pretty close. His seven home runs through 22 games highlight his blistering-hot start to the 2025 season. The 28-year-old is hitting .298 with a 1.069 OPS. Those numbers dwarf anything he produced in his previous three seasons.
So, it’s fair to wonder: Is this a real change or just a small sample size?
New York Yankees center fielder Trent Grisham runs the bases after his solo home run against the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium.© Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Digging into the statistics reveals reasons for cautious optimism.
Statcast data shows Grisham’s average exit velocity is up to 92 mph — the highest of his career — and his barrel rate has jumped to 16.7%, nearly doubling his previous best. He’s hammering fastballs this season, hitting .353 against them after batting just .239 last year. Those improvements aren’t just showing up in box scores; they’re backed by real changes in his swing quality and approach.
The small sample warning still applies. Grisham’s current batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is unusually high, suggesting a few lucky hits mixed in. His home run-to-fly ball rate is also elevated, meaning not every deep fly will keep clearing the fence over a full season. Some regression is inevitable.
But even accounting for that, Grisham looks like a different hitter. His expected batting average (xBA) and expected slugging percentage (xSLG) are strong enough to suggest that while he might not stay this hot, his breakout is built on more than luck. A version of Grisham who hits .250 with 20–25 homers and an OPS around .800 would be a major upgrade from the player who posted a .190 average and .675 OPS.
The timing could not be better.
With Giancarlo Stanton dealing with elbow tendinitis in both arms to start the season and Cody Bellinger struggling, the Yankees needed some power in the offense. Grisham has made the most of his opportunities.
Right now, the Yankees do not have to determine whether this is a long-term change. Yankees manager Aaron Boone needs to find a way to keep Grisham in the lineup and keep riding the hot hand.
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So, it’s fair to wonder: Is this a real change or just a small sample size?
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New York Yankees center fielder Trent Grisham runs the bases after his solo home run against the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium.© Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Digging into the statistics reveals reasons for cautious optimism.
Statcast data shows Grisham’s average exit velocity is up to 92 mph — the highest of his career — and his barrel rate has jumped to 16.7%, nearly doubling his previous best. He’s hammering fastballs this season, hitting .353 against them after batting just .239 last year. Those improvements aren’t just showing up in box scores; they’re backed by real changes in his swing quality and approach.
The small sample warning still applies. Grisham’s current batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is unusually high, suggesting a few lucky hits mixed in. His home run-to-fly ball rate is also elevated, meaning not every deep fly will keep clearing the fence over a full season. Some regression is inevitable.
But even accounting for that, Grisham looks like a different hitter. His expected batting average (xBA) and expected slugging percentage (xSLG) are strong enough to suggest that while he might not stay this hot, his breakout is built on more than luck. A version of Grisham who hits .250 with 20–25 homers and an OPS around .800 would be a major upgrade from the player who posted a .190 average and .675 OPS.
The timing could not be better.
With Giancarlo Stanton dealing with elbow tendinitis in both arms to start the season and Cody Bellinger struggling, the Yankees needed some power in the offense. Grisham has made the most of his opportunities.
Right now, the Yankees do not have to determine whether this is a long-term change. Yankees manager Aaron Boone needs to find a way to keep Grisham in the lineup and keep riding the hot hand.
Related: Did the Yankees Miss a Bigger Opportunity With This Two-Time All-Star?
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Related: Aaron Judge Caught Celebrating Birthday With Famous TV Pals
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