Why the Bahrain GP won't be decided by qualifying

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So far every Formula 1 grand prix this year has been won from pole position – and, in the most recent one in Japan, the running order was notably static since tyre characteristics militated against strategic divergence at a track on which it is difficult to overtake.

But the first three rounds of the season are held on circuits that have little in common with other venues on the calendar. Bahrain has a more conventional layout with more overtaking opportunities, while the openness of the track surface and the heat of the desert location are more punishing on tyres.

“I definitely feel that, unlike the last three races, this won’t be dominated by qualifying this weekend,” MercedesGeorge Russell told F1 TV after practice.

“It’s going to be dominated by race pace, by tyre degradation. So, of course you want to have a good qualifying, but the race is where the action will be.”

Bahrain is among track architect Hermann Tilke’s better creations. Although it still features his signature slow corners, fiddly camber changes, and big stops at the end of long-ish straights, other characteristics have brought it into play as a good racing venue.

As well as the heavy braking areas, there are corners that require big applications of throttle, plus sequences which combine to lure drivers into taking liberties with track limits. Turns 9 and 10, an open left-hander followed by a tighter one, ask a lot of car balance and can leave drivers bogged down with understeer or locking up the front axle when what is needed is a tidy entry and exit for the straight that follows.

Dino Beganovic, Ferrari​

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Dino Beganovic, FerrariFadel Senna - AFP - Getty Images

Fadel Senna - AFP - Getty Images

Also, the track surface is the most ‘open’ (i.e. rough) of the tracks F1 visits: its aggregate, sourced on the Shropshire borders in the UK, has a high granite content to ensure durability. The circuit’s owners got good value for money because, apart from various damage-repair patches, it hasn’t required resurfacing in 21 years.

Little wonder, then, that it has become such a battleground in the Pirelli era, where the tyres are deliberately engineered to degrade but sometimes that sensitivity comes at a cost. There are complicated set-up trade-offs to be made since teams can deliberately lean more towards an understeering car to protect the sensitive rears, but this can cost lap time in areas where Tilke has laid traps to induce front-end slides.

Another rogue factor this weekend is the temperature: standard for Bahrain at this time of year, but very different from the conditions that greeted the teams at the pre-season test in late February. Up and down the grid, the story has been one of consigning the knowledge from the test to history and starting virtually afresh.

Even the McLaren drivers who led both practice sessions sounded far from sanguine afterwards: Lando Norris said “everything feels dreadful but the car is in a reasonable place”.

Oscar Piastri, who led FP2 with nearly four tenths in hand over the fastest non-McLaren, was similarly quick to manage expectations.

“It’s nice to have it [a margin] now,” he said, “but Bahrain is a track you can overtake on and high deg here is a big factor, so qualifying is still important but I think we need to make sure we have a good race car as well.”

Photos from Bahrain GP - Practice​

Oscar Piastri, McLaren​

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Oscar Piastri, McLarenMark Thompson - Getty Images

Mark Thompson - Getty Images

Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing Team​

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Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing TeamPeter Fox - Getty Images

Peter Fox - Getty Images

Lando Norris, McLaren, Oscar Piastri, McLaren​

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Lando Norris, McLaren, Oscar Piastri, McLarenAndy Hone / Motorsport Images

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

George Russell, Mercedes​

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George Russell, MercedesAndrej Isakovic - AFP - Getty Images

Andrej Isakovic - AFP - Getty Images

Nico Hulkenberg, Sauber, Gabriel Bortoleto, Sauber​

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Nico Hulkenberg, Sauber, Gabriel Bortoleto, SauberAndy Hone / Motorsport Images

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Fans​

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Charles Leclerc, Ferrari​

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Charles Leclerc, FerrariMark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Oscar Piastri, McLaren​

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Oscar Piastri, McLarenBryn Lennon - Getty Images

Bryn Lennon - Getty Images

Fans​

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Fans

Liam Lawson, Racing Bulls Team, Isack Hadjar, Racing bulls Team​

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Liam Lawson, Racing Bulls Team, Isack Hadjar, Racing bulls TeamRudy Carezzevoli / Motorsport Images

Rudy Carezzevoli / Motorsport Images

Lance Stroll, Aston Martin Racing, Fernando Alonso, Aston Martin Racing​

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Lance Stroll, Aston Martin Racing, Fernando Alonso, Aston Martin RacingZak Mauger / Motorsport Images

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Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing Team​

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Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing TeamMark Thompson - Getty Images

Mark Thompson - Getty Images

Frederik Vesti, Mercedes​

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Frederik Vesti, MercedesSam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Ryo Hirakawa, Haas​

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Ryo Hirakawa, HaasSam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

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Lando Norris, McLaren​

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Lando Norris, McLarenSam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Nico Hulkenberg, Sauber, Lando Norris, McLaren, Felipe Drugovich, Aston Martin​

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Nico Hulkenberg, Sauber, Lando Norris, McLaren, Felipe Drugovich, Aston MartinSam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing Team​

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Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing TeamMark Thompson - Getty Images

Mark Thompson - Getty Images

Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes​

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Andrea Kimi Antonelli, MercedesBryn Lennon - Getty Images

Bryn Lennon - Getty Images

Lance Stroll, Aston Martin Racing​

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Lance Stroll, Aston Martin RacingZak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing​

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Max Verstappen, Red Bull RacingMark Thompson - Getty Images

Mark Thompson - Getty Images

Oscar Piastri, McLaren​

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Oscar Piastri, McLarenSteven Tee / Motorsport Images

Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

Dino Beganovic, Ferrari​

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Dino Beganovic, Ferrari Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

Pierre Gasly, Alpine​

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Pierre Gasly, AlpineFadel Senna - AFP - Getty Images

Fadel Senna - AFP - Getty Images

Ayumu Iwasa, Red Bull Racing​

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Ayumu Iwasa, Red Bull RacingClive Mason - Getty Images

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Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari​

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Lewis Hamilton, FerrariMark Thompson - Getty Images

Mark Thompson - Getty Images

Lando Norris, McLaren​

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Lando Norris, McLarenMark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Ayumu Iwasa, Red Bull Racing​

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Ayumu Iwasa, Red Bull RacingFadel Senna - AFP - Getty Images

Fadel Senna - AFP - Getty Images

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari​

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Lewis Hamilton, FerrariSam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

Lance Stroll, Aston Martin Racing, Felipe Drugovich, Aston Martin​

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Lance Stroll, Aston Martin Racing, Felipe Drugovich, Aston MartinFadel Senna - AFP - Getty Images

Fadel Senna - AFP - Getty Images

Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing Team​

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Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing TeamZak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Dino Beganovic, Ferrari​

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Dino Beganovic, FerrariFadel Senna - AFP - Getty Images

Fadel Senna - AFP - Getty Images

Gabriel Bortoleto, Sauber​

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Gabriel Bortoleto, SauberSam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Car of Fernando Alonso, Aston Martin Racing​

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Car of Fernando Alonso, Aston Martin RacingAyman Yaqoob - Anadolu - Getty Images

Ayman Yaqoob - Anadolu - Getty Images

Pierre Gasly, Alpine​

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Pierre Gasly, AlpineSam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

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Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari​

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Lewis Hamilton, FerrariAndrej Isakovic - AFP - Getty Images

Andrej Isakovic - AFP - Getty Images

Liam Lawson, Racing Bulls Team​

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Liam Lawson, Racing Bulls TeamSteven Tee / Motorsport Images

Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

Paul Aron, Alpine F1 and Flavio Briatore, Executive Advisor of Alpine F1​

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Paul Aron, Alpine F1 and Flavio Briatore, Executive Advisor of Alpine F1Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing, Helmut Marko, Red Bull Racing​

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Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing, Helmut Marko, Red Bull RacingMark Thompson - Getty Images

Mark Thompson - Getty Images

Zak Brown, McLaren​

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Zak Brown, McLarenSteven Tee / Motorsport Images

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Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes​

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Andrea Kimi Antonelli, MercedesSam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Pierre Gasly, Alpine​

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Pierre Gasly, AlpineSam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari​

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Charles Leclerc, FerrariMark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Oliver Bearman, Haas F1 Team​

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Oliver Bearman, Haas F1 TeamPeter Fox - Getty Images

Peter Fox - Getty Images

Pierre Gasly, Alpine​

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Pierre Gasly, AlpineSam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari​

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Lewis Hamilton, FerrariFadel Senna - AFP - Getty Images

Fadel Senna - AFP - Getty Images

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing​

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Max Verstappen, Red Bull RacingMark Thompson - Getty Images

Mark Thompson - Getty Images

Fernando Alonso, Aston Martin Racing​

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Fernando Alonso, Aston Martin RacingSteven Tee / Motorsport Images

Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

Isack Hadjar, Racing Bulls​

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Isack Hadjar, Racing BullsZak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Lando Norris, McLaren​

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Lando Norris, McLarenAndrej Isakovic - AFP - Getty Images

Andrej Isakovic - AFP - Getty Images

Nico Hulkenberg, Sauber​

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Nico Hulkenberg, SauberClive Mason - Getty Images

Clive Mason - Getty Images

Lando Norris, McLaren​

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Lando Norris, McLarenAndy Hone / Motorsport Images

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing​

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Max Verstappen, Red Bull RacingSam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Alex Albon, Williams​

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Alex Albon, WilliamsPeter Fox - Getty Images

Peter Fox - Getty Images

Lando Norris, McLaren​

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Lando Norris, McLarenClive Rose / Getty Images

Clive Rose / Getty Images

Ayumu Iwasa, Red Bull Racing​

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Ayumu Iwasa, Red Bull RacingRudy Carezzevoli / Motorsport Images

Rudy Carezzevoli / Motorsport Images

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari​

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Lewis Hamilton, FerrariAndy Hone / Motorsport Images

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Lando Norris, McLaren​

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Lando Norris, McLarenClive Mason - Getty Images

Clive Mason - Getty Images

Carlos Sainz, Williams​

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Carlos Sainz, WilliamsClive Rose / Getty Images

Clive Rose / Getty Images

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari​

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Charles Leclerc, FerrariAyman Yaqoob - Anadolu - Getty Images

Ayman Yaqoob - Anadolu - Getty Images

Esteban Ocon, Haas F1 Team​

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Esteban Ocon, Haas F1 TeamPeter Fox - Getty Images

Peter Fox - Getty Images

Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes​

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Andrea Kimi Antonelli, MercedesMark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Nico Hulkenberg, Sauber​

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Nico Hulkenberg, SauberClive Mason - Getty Images

Clive Mason - Getty Images

Jack Doohan, Alpine​

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Jack Doohan, AlpineMark Thompson - Getty Images

Mark Thompson - Getty Images

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