Why Padres' Fernando Tatis Jr. problem is not a real long-term concern

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Why Padres' Fernando Tatis Jr. problem is not a real long-term concern originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

The San Diego Padres are 35-33 on the season, have a Wild Card spot, and look to have one of the best bullpens in all of Major League Baseball. The only issue is their shaky rotation, and their core-four hitters are all struggling.

While the Manny Machado problem doesn't seem likely to get resolved, and there have been some concerns about Xander Bogaerts and Jackson Merrill coming to fruition, the concerns surrounding Fernando Tatis Jr. are the ones to focus on.

However, as ESPN's David Schoenfield made the case for, these Tatis problems are not actually real concerns for the Padres. It might seem bad in the moment, but if one Padres player were struggling to figure it out, it would be Tatis.

Why Fernando Tatis Jr.'s problem should have a positive resolution​

"Unlike Machado, Tatis is in his prime," Schoenfield writes. "There should be no reason for his power output to suddenly stop."

Tatis has hit just two home runs this season, one of which was an incredible 450+ foot shot to left, and another a walk-off homer this past week.

But, with only two homers as June 12 passes by, it's hard not to worry about Tatis when it comes to his power output. But this problem has two simple explanations that help alleviate some of these concerns.

For starters, Tatis is simply hitting the ball into the ground way too much. As Schoenfield notes, "Out of 157 qualified hitters, he has the 15th-highest ground ball rate."

That's obviously not conducive to hitting home runs, as a key to doing so is getting the ball in the air. But it's not just his ground-ball rate stopping him from hitting homers this season.

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As Schoenfield notes, "Tatis' pull fly ball rate peaked at 22.2% in 2021 and has fallen each season since then - yes, that's post-PED suspension and also post-shoulder surgery in 2022 - and is down to 9% in 2026."

Pulling the ball in the air is a huge component of hitting a lot of home runs, and Tatis is doing that less often than ever before this season.

Between his too-high ground-ball rate and his too-low pulled-fly-ball rate, it's obvious why he's failing to display the power numbers he's put up before.

Fortunately, these are fairly simple things to fix, and while there might be some short-term concerns, if he can make some minor adjustments, Tatis should be able to tap into his natural power while he's still in his prime going forward.

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