Why Blue Jays' bullpen is elite despite seven blown saves

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Why Blue Jays' bullpen is elite despite seven blown saves originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

So far in 2026, the Toronto Blue Jays have been having a troubling season. At 16-19, the Blue Jays are eight games back of the New York Yankees for the top spot in the AL East.

While the injuries to the starting rotation and to multiple players in their lineup are a big reason for the struggles, the shaky bullpen with seven blown saves this year is another big reason for how bad 2026 has gone.

However, as Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report highlighted, the Blue Jays should actually be a lot better in their bullpen than they appear. In fact, if the Blue Jays weren't so unlucky, this bullpen might even be elite.

Why Blue Jays might have an elite bullpen despite struggles​

"Toronto Blue Jays: Best Bullpen xFIP," Miller writes. "The Blue Jays have blown as many saves as they have converted with seven of each, but xFIP (and fWAR) suggest this ought to be the best bullpen in baseball."

Toronto's bullpen is not having a good season so far, with Jeff Hoffman's struggles leading to a demotion from the closer role.

But, in reality, he's just been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the sport. He has a .529 BABIP (Batting average on balls in play), which is a stark contrast to his last five years with a BABIP below .300.

If that number can get closer to his normal career totals, Hoffman's production for the Blue Jays bullpen should improve significantly.

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According to FanGraphs, the Blue Jays' bullpen has the best xFIP in baseball at 3.17, which is significantly better than the New York Mets' 3.52 xFIP in second-place.

Their xERA is also elite, fourth-best in baseball at 3.36. However, their actual ERA is 17th at 4.19. Despite what looks to be an elite bullpen by advanced metrics, the actual production is severely underperforming where they should be.

While it won't correct overnight, the Blue Jays could see their bullpen vastly improve with a bit more luck going their way, and the continued excellence of pitchers like Louis Varland and Tyler Rogers.

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